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RICE

Rice 24 at Southern Miss 38

USM
2022 · LendingTree Bowl · Dec 17, 2022 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:44 · Shawqi Itraish pass intercepted Jay Stanley return for no gain to the Rice 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:12: Isaiah Esdale 26 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick) — RICE win probability +12.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:08: Isaiah Esdale 32 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick) — RICE win probability +21.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:06: Bradley Rozner 18 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick) — RICE win probability +20.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:52: Tiaquelin Mims 18 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — USM win probability +18.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:18: Jason Brownlee 26 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — USM win probability +24.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:36RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:55USM 4th & 6 at RICE 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:40USM 4th & 11 at RICE 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:50RICE 4th & 15 at RICE 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:04RICE 4th & 6 at USM 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:40USM 4th & 1 at RICE 1, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:06RICE 4th & 20 at RICE 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:49RICE 4th & 24 at RICE 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:06USM 4th & 4 at USM 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:22RICE 4th & 10 at USM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%−1.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:05RICE 4th & 6 at USM 9, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%−2.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−14.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:37USM 4th & 9 at USM 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:50RICE 4th & 24 at RICE 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:10RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:44RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:20USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:14USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:12RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:08RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:06RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:52USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:18USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:57USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3474% → 74%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
73.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 27 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
73.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 14 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
73.8%
Trey Lowe sacked by Josh Pearcy for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+19
73.6%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 19 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
73.7%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal Jones, broken up by Jordan DunbarSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
74.4%
Jakarius Caston 19 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3426% → 26%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.1%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
74.0%
Cameron Montgomery run for no gain to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
74.2%
Uriah West run for 4 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
74.1%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 2 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
74.1%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
74.3%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah EsdaleSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+12
74.4%
Conor Hunt punt for 41 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 12 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3375% → 75%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
74.6%
Jakarius Caston run for 9 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
74.9%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
75.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Latreal Jones for 5 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-1
75.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 49Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
74.9%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
74.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the Rice 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:1325% → 26%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the Rice 24Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
74.5%
AJ Padgett run for 1 yd to the Rice 25Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
74.8%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 10 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
74.5%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 3 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+11
74.3%
Quinton Jackson run for 11 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
73.9%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Jack Bradley for 25 yds Jack Bradley fumbled, forced by Lakevias Daniel, recovered by SoMis Malik ShortsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:5275% → 75%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
75.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
75.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
75.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
75.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+7
76.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
76.6%
Antavious Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 48Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
76.1%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
75.7%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
75.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 47 yds, downed at the Rice 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:5024% → 23%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
75.7%
RICE Penalty, False Start (Ethan Onianwa) to the Rice 1Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
75.7%
Uriah West run for 1 yd to the Rice 2Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+9
75.9%
AJ Padgett run for 9 yds to the Rice 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
75.6%
Cameron Montgomery run for no gain to the Rice 11Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
75.7%
AJ Padgett run for no gain to the Rice 11Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-5
76.2%
AJ Padgett sacked by Jay Stanley and Daylen Gill for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 6Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 15
OWN 6
0
77.0%
Conor Hunt punt for 53 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for no gain to the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:2977% → 83%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
77.0%
Lowe, Trey pass complete to Caston, Jakarius for 20 yards to the RICE39, PENALTY SOUMISS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOUMISS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+64
82.8%
Frank Gore Jr. 64 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:0419% → 21%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Cameron MontgomerySimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.4%
RICE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+20
81.6%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 20 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
81.5%
Braylen Walker run for 20 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
81.1%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 20 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
80.4%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
80.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-1
81.4%
Juma Otoviano run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
79.4%
Christian VanSickle 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1081% → 85%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
80.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+55
81.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 55 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
82.1%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 1 yd to the Rice 9Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.8%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal Jones, broken up by Jordan DunbarSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
81.3%
Lowe, Trey pass incomplete to Cavallo, Cole, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Chamberlain, Treshawn) 7 yards to the RICE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS.Similar
Q2 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.8%
Janari Dean run for no gain to the Rice 2Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
82.0%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the Rice 1Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.3%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
85.4%
Briggs Bourgeois 18 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:3016% → 15%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.1%
Cameron Montgomery run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
84.5%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Cameron MontgomerySimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
84.9%
AJ Padgett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
85.0%
RICE Penalty, False Start (Geron Hargon) to the Rice 15Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
85.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 40 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:1886% → 87%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
86.4%
Trey Lowe run for 18 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
86.6%
Trey Lowe sacked by Ikenna Enechukwu for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 39 Trey Lowe fumbled, forced by Ikenna Enechukwu, recovered by Rice Myron Morrison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:4316% → 15%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
83.9%
Isaiah Esdale run for 2 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
84.0%
RICE Penalty, False Start (Isaac Klarkowski) to the Rice 36Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
84.8%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner, broken up by Natrone BrooksSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-11
85.1%
Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Rice 40 RICE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Shea Baker) to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 24
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Conor Hunt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0987% → 86%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
86.8%
Lowe, Trey pass incomplete to Brownlee, Jason (Taylor, Gabe), PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Mays, Briason) 10 yards to the SOUMISS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+9
86.3%
Janari Dean run for 9 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3615% → 28%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.2%
Cameron Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Rice 23Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
85.4%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
85.0%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Boden Groen for 10 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
84.8%
Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+18
84.5%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 18 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
84.6%
Luke McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
72.2%
Isaiah Esdale 26 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4678% → 79%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
77.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-5
78.9%
Trey Lowe run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 32 Trey Lowe fumbled, forced by Izeya Floyd, recovered by Rice Ikenna EnechukwuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
57.7%
Isaiah Esdale 32 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4865% → 64%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
65.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
65.5%
RICE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Blake Boenisch) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+2
67.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-1
67.6%
Trey Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
65.3%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee, broken up by Treshawn ChamberlainSimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
63.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the Rice 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:5938% → 64%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+57
61.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for 57 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
55.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
55.2%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+11
57.3%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 11 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
36.5%
Bradley Rozner 18 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:0244% → 70%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.3%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
43.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 19 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
49.4%
Gore Jr., Frank pass incomplete to Brownlee, Jason, PENALTY RICE holding (Devones, Tre'shon) 10 yards to the RICE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS.Similar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
49.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 25 yds to the Rice 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
51.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Briason Mays) to the Rice 18Similar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+18
70.0%
Tiaquelin Mims 18 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2440% → 40%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.2%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 6 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
58.4%
AJ Padgett run for 1 yd to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+25
59.5%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 25 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.0%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
55.0%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
56.4%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah EsdaleSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
59.7%
Conor Hunt punt for 41 yds, downed at the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
6 plays · 98 yds · 1:5363% → 89%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+59
63.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 59 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
68.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-15
69.9%
Lowe, Trey pass complete to Brownlee, Jason for 34 yards to the RICE0, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference (Brownlee, Jason) 15 yards to the RICE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+4
65.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+19
64.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 19 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
88.8%
Jason Brownlee 26 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:0919% → 15%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
80.9%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
82.0%
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
81.5%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
82.0%
AJ Padgett sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+15
83.6%
Padgett, AJ pass incomplete to Rozner, Bradley, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference (Harrell, Camron) 15 yards to the SOUMISS47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RICE.Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
83.1%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 34 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
81.6%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
81.7%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
83.5%
RICE Penalty, False Start (Ethan Onianwa) to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+9
85.1%
AJ Padgett run for 9 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 6
OPP 9
0
85.0%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner, broken up by Eric Scott Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2189% → 89%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+17
88.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 17 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
89.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-1
89.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
89.3%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+2
88.8%
Mason Hunt punt for 43 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:4212% → 9%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
88.1%
AJ Padgett sacked by Daylen Gill for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 17
OWN 25
-7
90.1%
AJ Padgett sacked by Santrell Latham and Daylen Gill for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 18Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 24
OWN 18
0
90.9%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Boden Groen, broken up by Averie HabasSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 24
OWN 18
0
91.3%
Conor Hunt punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5793% → 93%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
50
0
93.1%
Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
50
+2
92.9%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+17
92.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 17 yds to the Rice 31 Frank Gore Jr. fumbled, forced by Gabe Taylor, recovered by Rice George NyakwolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3010% → 8%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
89.6%
Quinton Jackson run for 1 yd to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
90.3%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah Esdale, broken up by TQ NewsomeSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-5
91.2%
AJ Padgett sacked by Daylen Gill for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 27Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
92.2%
Conor Hunt punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
98.3%
Frank Gore Jr. 55 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28INT
10 plays · 22 yds · 1:092% → 1%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.6%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Boden Groen for 14 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-14
97.4%
AJ Padgett run for 1 yd to the Rice 40 RICE Penalty, Personal Foul (Luke McCaffrey) to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ikenna Enechukwu) to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.5%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
97.5%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah EsdaleSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+7
97.6%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
98.7%
Shawqi Itraish pass intercepted Jay Stanley return for no gain to the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:18
Jason Brownlee 26 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)
+24.4
TD · Q3 10:08
Isaiah Esdale 32 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)
-21.2
TD · Q3 5:06
Bradley Rozner 18 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)
-20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com