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BAY

Baylor 15 at Air Force 30

AF
2022 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Dec 22, 2022 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:40 · Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense+8.3Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+2.6Pregame prior−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:06: Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 8 yds for a TD — BAY win probability +13.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06: Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — AF win probability +5.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:28: Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +14.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:29: Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:40: Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:04BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18AF 4th & 5 at BAY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 35, down 6
    Close callPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:13AF 4th & 6 at BAY 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:18AF 4th & 8 at AF 20, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:11BAY 4th & 11 at AF 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:40AF 4th & 1 at BAY 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.7%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:29BAY 4th & 2 at AF 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:53BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 33, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:04BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−2.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:15AF 4th & 4 at AF 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:50BAY 4th & 4 at AF 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−2.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−2.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:55BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 49, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:52BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 47, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:25AF 4th & 1 at BAY 15, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:10AF 4th & 1 at BAY 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:22AF 4th & 2 at BAY 30, up 15
    Close callWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:20AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:06BAY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:28AF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:29AF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:40AF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:34BAY Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4656% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
43.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
43.7%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
43.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
43.9%
Issac Power punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
16 plays · 55 yds · 8:2644% → 50%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
44.0%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
44.1%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+12
44.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
44.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+9
44.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+8
45.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 8 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
45.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+9
45.7%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
46.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+10
45.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
46.4%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
46.5%
DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+7
46.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
47.1%
Brad Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.2%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0251% → 50%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
48.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+10
49.0%
Craig Williams run for 10 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
48.8%
Josh Cameron run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
49.5%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
50.1%
Issac Power punt for 23 yds, downed at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FG
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:5652% → 52%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+34
51.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 34 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
52.0%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
52.4%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
52.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
52.3%
Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:4147% → 43%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
53.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.6%
Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
53.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+6
54.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+4
54.8%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.5%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
55.0%
Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
55.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 9
OWN 48
-5
56.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
57.4%
Issac Power punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:5555% → 56%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
55.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
55.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
56.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Amari TerrySimilar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
55.9%
Carson Bay punt for 30 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5344% → 40%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
50
+31
56.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 31 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
55.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
56.2%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
57.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
59.9%
John Mayers 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 6:1660% → 65%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
60.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
61.2%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
60.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
62.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
62.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
63.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
64.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
65.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
65.7%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-5
64.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:1838% → 51%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
61.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+4
64.3%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+14
64.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
62.3%
Qualan Jones run for no gain to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+5
63.7%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
61.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
62.0%
Shapen, Blake pass incomplete to Presley, Hal, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference (Mack II, Michael) 15 yards to the AIRFORCE8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
48.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
55.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:0455% → 71%
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
55.2%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-2
54.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+15
53.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 15 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+68
55.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 68 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:1232% → 28%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.4%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
68.1%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
68.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
69.9%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.9%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-3
69.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
71.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
72.3%
Issac Power punt for 39 yds, downed at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3773% → 73%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
72.9%
DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
73.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+1
72.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
72.8%
Carson Bay punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2029% → 26%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
71.5%
Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+5
72.8%
Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+2
73.8%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:1476% → 92%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
76.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 12 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
77.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+20
79.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 20 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
80.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+9
80.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2013% → 11%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
87.7%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+3
88.5%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 7
OWN 49
-7
88.9%
Blake Shapen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:0493% → 98%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
92.5%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
92.7%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
93.0%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+11
93.1%
Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
93.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
93.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaxon Player) to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
93.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:322% → 2%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
98.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard ReeseSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.3%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+3
98.4%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
98.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 6:1699% → 99%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
98.6%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
98.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
98.7%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
99.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.0%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+5
99.2%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
99.2%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
99.2%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 0:411% → 4%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+57
99.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jaylen Ellis for 57 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
99.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 14 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
95.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 14 yds for a TD, (B. Shapen Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 20 yds · 3:0498% → 99%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
98.2%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
98.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
98.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
98.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+4
98.8%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
99.3%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
99.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:28
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q2 0:06
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 8 yds for a TD
-13.4
TD · Q3 2:29
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com