Try the model
WKU

Western Kentucky 44 at South Alabama 23

USA
2022 · R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Dec 21, 2022 · Caesars Superdome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:00 · Jack Brooks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKent 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense−38.0Score differential−22.7Garbage-time factor−12.1Pregame prior+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:44: Dalvin Smith pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 25 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +12.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +4.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:57: Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +14.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:19: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 39 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:12: Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +5.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 6
  1. Q1 10:22USA 4th & 5 at USA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:49USA 4th & 23 at USA 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:00WKU 4th & 3 at USA 16, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:16USA 4th & 4 at WKU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:24USA 4th & 16 at USA 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:23WKU 4th & 4 at USA 5, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:38USA 4th & 7 at WKU 12, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:21USA 4th & 5 at WKU 27, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:05WKU 4th & 7 at USA 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:17WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 45, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00USA 4th & 11 at USA 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:24WKU 4th & 4 at USA 13, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:58WKU 4th & 8 at USA 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:44USA 4th & 14 at WKU 45, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:11WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:46WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:44WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:57USA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:19WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:12USA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:01USA Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4939% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
61.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 1 yd to the WKent 21Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+16
61.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 16 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
61.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 7 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+12
61.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 12 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
60.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4160% → 59%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
60.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
59.9%
Carter Bradley run for 10 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
60.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 2 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
60.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 3 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
59.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
59.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2241% → 45%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
59.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 7 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
58.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+42
58.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 42 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
58.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
54.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 27 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:3556% → 55%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
56.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+2
55.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-3
55.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 12Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
55.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:2047% → 49%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
53.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 12
50
+12
53.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 12 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
52.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 9 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+6
52.3%
Austin Reed run for 6 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
51.9%
Reed, Austin pass complete to Ervin-Poindexter, Davion for 21 yards to the SOUTHALA2, PENALTY WESTERNKY holding (Staats, Rusty) 10 yards to the SOUTHALA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+3
51.5%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
51.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+14
51.1%
Austin Reed run for 14 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
50.7%
Cory Munson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:3651% → 50%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
50.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 6 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
51.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
51.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
50.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 14 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
51.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
50.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-2
50.4%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 46Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+2
49.9%
Carter Bradley run for 2 yds to the WKent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:2154% → 66%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
46.4%
Michael Mathison run for 31 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
45.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
33.7%
Dalvin Smith pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 25 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0538% → 35%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
37.7%
Bradley, Carter rush for 1 yard to the SOUTHALA33, PENALTY SOUTHALA holding (Lucas, Dontae) 10 yards to the SOUTHALA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-8
36.3%
Carter Bradley sacked by JaQues Evans for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
35.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 5 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
34.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:5469% → 71%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
30.8%
Malachi Corley run for 3 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+13
29.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 13 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+38
28.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 38 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
27.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
27.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+6
28.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 6 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
29.3%
Cory Munson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10INT
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:1532% → 32%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
32.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
32.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
31.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 8 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
32.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+19
32.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 19 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
32.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+14
32.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 14 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
33.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 4 yds to the WKent 21Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-30
32.4%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted Kaleb Oliver return for 30 yds to the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11INT
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:5975% → 77%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
25.5%
Smith, Dalvin pass incomplete to Hall, Jaylen, PENALTY SOUTHALA pass interference (Richardson, Jamar) 15 yards to the WESTERNKY45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTERNKY.Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
24.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 7 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+31
23.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 31 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
22.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
22.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
22.6%
Austin Reed pass intercepted, touchback. Yam Banks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:4928% → 29%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
27.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 12 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
27.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+17
27.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 17 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
28.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 15 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
32.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 16 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
32.2%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the WKent 14Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
31.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 2 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
30.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
28.9%
Diego Guajardo 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13END OF HALF
17 plays · 75 yds · 1:3581% → 92%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
18.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 8 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
17.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 4 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+12
16.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 12 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
15.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 20 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
15.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 7 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-5
14.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Malachi Corley) to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+20
14.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 20 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
13.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
12.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 3 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
12.5%
Reed, Austin pass incomplete to Smith, Dalvin, PENALTY SOUTHALA personal foul (Higdon, Brock) 2 yards to the SOUTHALA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTERNKY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:507% → 23%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
6.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Will Ignont) to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
7.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 12 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
8.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 14 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
8.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 14 yds to the WKent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
8.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 4 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
23.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:1686% → 94%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
14.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+18
14.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
50
+5
13.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
12.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
12.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
5.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 39 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16INT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:416% → 5%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
5.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+10
5.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for 10 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
5.1%
Omni Wells run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
50
+3
5.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+15
4.9%
Bradley, Carter pass incomplete to Pritchett, Jamaal, PENALTY WESTERNKY pass interference (Oliver, Kaleb) 15 yards to the WESTERNKY32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
5.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 5 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
5.3%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 5
OPP 27
-17
4.9%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted Upton Stout return for 17 yds to the WKent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:0396% → 96%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
3.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKent 37Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
4.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 10 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
3.6%
Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 7
50
+34
3.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 34 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
3.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+2
2.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
2.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
4.1%
Cory Munson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:402% → 8%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
2.4%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+47
2.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 47 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
2.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
2.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the WKent 5Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:4695% → 96%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
4.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
4.7%
Austin Reed run for 2 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
4.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKent 36Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
4.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
4.3%
Tom Ellard punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:085% → 4%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
5.0%
Omni Wells run for 4 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
4.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-5
4.4%
Carter Bradley sacked by Mike Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
4.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:2796% → 100%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
3.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-1
3.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+13
2.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 13 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
2.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 11 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
2.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Davion Ervin-PoindexterSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+17
2.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 17 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
1.8%
Markese Stepp run for 8 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
1.6%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
1.5%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
1.3%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
1.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joey BeljanSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
0.4%
Cory Munson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 3:070% → 2%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 5 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
0.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+4
0.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
0.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 21 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
0.3%
Bradley, Carter pass incomplete to Voisin, Devin, PENALTY WESTERNKY pass interference (Brathwaite Jr., A.J.) 15 yards to the WESTERNKY37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
0.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 17 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
0.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
0.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Lincoln SefcikSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+12
1.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 12 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2599% → 99%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.7%
L.T. Sanders run for 1 yd to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+1
0.7%
L.T. Sanders run for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
0.7%
Tom Ellard punt for 43 yds, downed at the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:101% → 0%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+6
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+5
0.5%
Bradley, Carter pass incomplete, PENALTY WESTERNKY offside (Evans, JaQues) 5 yards to the SOUTHALA14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 12 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 21 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
0.5%
Carter Bradley sacked by Dareon Goodrum and Tre Shaw for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
0.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 14
OPP 45
-10
0.4%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Dareon Goodrum for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.5%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+39
0.4%
Markese Stepp run for 39 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:57
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q2 13:44
Dalvin Smith pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 25 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q3 11:19
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 39 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com