Try the model
TTU

Texas Tech 42 at Ole Miss 25

MISS
2022 · TaxAct Texas Bowl · Dec 28, 2022 · NRG Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:19 · Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 1 yd to the Miss 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense−2.6Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:59: Tyler Shough run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +9.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds for a TD Timeout OLE MISS, clock 00:28 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TTU win probability +14.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:08: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Malik Heath) to the TexTc 8 (Jonathan Cruz PAT MISSED) — MISS win probability +9.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:20: SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TTU win probability +8.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:03: Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 9 yds , Loic Fouonji return for 44 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:34MISS 4th & 7 at TTU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43TTU 4th & 2 at MISS 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:23TTU 4th & 9 at MISS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:44MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19TTU 4th & 3 at MISS 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:55MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:59TTU 4th & 2 at MISS 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:24MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 29, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:18TTU 4th & 2 at MISS 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:13TTU 4th & 5 at MISS 14, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:48TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 42, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:14TTU 4th & 6 at MISS 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:53MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−2.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:55MISS 4th & 1 at TTU 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−2.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−6.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:00TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.3%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:59TTU 4th & 3 at MISS 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−3.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:36TTU 4th & 4 at MISS 8, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−4.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:47MISS 4th & 5 at TTU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 6:43TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:59TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28TTU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:08MISS Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:20TTU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:35MISS Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:10MISS Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.8%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2156% → 57%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.3%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
56.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
56.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 19 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
56.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-1
56.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+2
56.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
56.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2INT
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:4344% → 44%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
56.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 4 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
56.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 7 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
56.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
56.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 19 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
56.1%
Tyler Shough run for 7 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+14
56.0%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
55.9%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted, touchback. Trey Washington return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3757% → 56%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
56.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
56.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-2
56.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0744% → 47%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
55.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
55.7%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 8 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+9
55.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 9 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
55.6%
Tyler Shough run for 5 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
55.7%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.0%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0754% → 58%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
53.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 37 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
54.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 19 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
54.8%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+6
54.7%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.1%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:3543% → 44%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
56.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
56.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
56.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 37 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
55.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
55.2%
Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
55.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
55.6%
Trey Wolff 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1155% → 55%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
55.2%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Isaac Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
55.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+12
54.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 12 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
55.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 13 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
55.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
56.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
55.4%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Dadrion Taylor-Demerson return for no gain to the TexTc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:1245% → 47%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
55.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 6 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
54.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+2
54.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
54.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
54.0%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
54.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
53.2%
Tyler Shough run for 8 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Troy Brown) to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
52.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
52.0%
Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+27
52.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 27 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.7%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
51.5%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
52.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
53.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 1 yd to the Miss 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9INT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1154% → 52%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
54.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+1
53.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 1 yd to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
52.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+3
52.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
52.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 15
OWN 9
-11
52.3%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Marquis Waters return for 11 yds to the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5851% → 58%
Q2 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
49.4%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
49.3%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
50.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 4 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.1%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2143% → 42%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.2%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
43.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
42.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
41.7%
Dayton Wade run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:5860% → 65%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
40.5%
Tyler Shough run for 9 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-1
39.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
40.1%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+5
40.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Henry Teeter for 5 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
38.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+5
38.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+6
38.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 6 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
35.5%
Trey Wolff 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2337% → 37%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
37.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the Miss 37 Jaxson Dart fumbled, forced by Jaylon Hutchings, recovered by TexTc Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:5369% → 84%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
31.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+9
31.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
31.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
31.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 7 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
16.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds for a TD Timeout OLE MISS, clock 00:28 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
22.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5881% → 83%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
18.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 13 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
17.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
17.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+6
18.3%
Tyler Shough run for 6 yds to the TexTc 42 Tyler Shough fumbled, forced by Tavius Robinson, recovered by TexTc Dennis WilburnSimilar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
17.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2222% → 32%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
21.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 19 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
22.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+30
21.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 30 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
23.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+9
23.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
22.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+4
22.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
22.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
21.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 11Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
31.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Malik Heath) to the TexTc 8 (Jonathan Cruz PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:1875% → 79%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
25.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
25.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
24.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+17
22.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 17 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
21.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Myles Price for 20 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
21.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
21.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+4
20.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
20.8%
Trey Wolff 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1127% → 24%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
26.9%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 15
OWN 18
-3
26.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 18
OWN 15
0
24.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 18
OWN 15
0
23.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down , Myles Price returns for no gain to the Miss 15 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Ladarius Tennison) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:0683% → 83%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
17.5%
Tyler Shough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-2
16.4%
Tyler Shough sacked by Tywone Malone for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-2
16.6%
Tyler Shough sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 49 Tyler Shough fumbled, forced by Tavius Robinson, recovered by Miss Jared Ivey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3426% → 25%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
26.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
26.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 9 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
28.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
25.3%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
24.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the TexTc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:3584% → 96%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
16.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+16
16.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 16 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
14.5%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
14.4%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+9
14.5%
Tyler Shough run for 9 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
14.9%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
13.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
13.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-5
13.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Jerand Bradley) to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+11
14.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 11 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+4
14.7%
Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
12.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 36 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:027% → 7%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
7.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 34 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
7.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+3
8.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
8.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
7.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 19 yds Dayton Wade fumbled, forced by Tyler Owens, recovered by TexTc Isaac Smith for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Watkins) to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:2796% → 98%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
4.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jayden Williams) to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
4.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Brady Boyd for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
50
0
3.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 1
50
+36
3.2%
Tyler Shough run for 36 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
2.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
2.7%
Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
2.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
1.9%
Trey Wolff 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:492% → 8%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
2.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 17 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
2.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+22
2.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 22 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
2.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 21 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
2.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
2.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
7.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4195% → 96%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
4.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
4.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+8
4.3%
Tyler Shough run for 8 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
3.9%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 29 yds Cam'Ron Valdez fumbled, forced by Miles Battle, recovered by MissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:204% → 8%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
3.2%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+30
3.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 30 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
3.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
3.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+10
3.1%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
3.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+23
3.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 23 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
8.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 29Uncategorized
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:582% → 2%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
2.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 7 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
2.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
2.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Bralon Brown for 11 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
2.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+16
2.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 16 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
2.0%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
2.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+23
2.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 23 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:28
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds for a TD Timeout OLE MISS, clock 00:28 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-14.7
TD · Q3 9:08
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Malik Heath) to the TexTc 8 (Jonathan Cruz PAT MISSED)
+9.9
TD · Q2 6:59
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com