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KU

Kansas 53 at Arkansas 55

ARK
2022 · AutoZone Liberty Bowl · Dec 28, 2022 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:15 · Grayden Addison punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3Play 64Home team on offense+9.9Score differential+3.7Garbage-time factor+1.7Pregame prior+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Time remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:02: AJ Green run for 20 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +9.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 0:41: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 21 yds for a TD (Jalon Daniels pass to Lawrence Arnold for Two-Point Conversion) — KU win probability +46.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 2 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK) — KU win probability +12.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +37.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: KJ Jefferson run for 20 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Jaedon Wilson for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +22.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:12ARK 4th & 4 at KU 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:46ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 25, down 4
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35KU 4th & 14 at KU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:50ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:15KU 4th & 18 at KU 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:59KU 4th & 4 at ARK 48, down 18
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:08KU 4th & 9 at KU 26, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:41ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 46, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:54ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:07KU 4th & 7 at ARK 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:57ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:49KU 4th & 14 at KU 12, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:39ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 43, up 15
    Close callPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:52KU 4th & 6 at ARK 21, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 8:40KU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:05ARK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:57ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:23ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:02ARK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:18KU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:43ARK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:15KU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:05KU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:41KU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.3%−5.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:3960% → 60%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
59.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
59.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Harper Cole for 10 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
59.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 8 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+15
59.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
59.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
60.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
60.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Kans 19Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
60.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ GreenSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
60.2%
Cam Little 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1840% → 42%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.0%
Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+24
59.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 24 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
59.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+10
59.6%
Jalon Daniels run for 10 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
59.6%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
57.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Ky Thomas for 29 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4558% → 58%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
58.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
58.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
58.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Bryce StephensSimilar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by O.J. Burroughs at the Kans 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0242% → 41%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
58.0%
Jalon Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 33 Jalon Daniels fumbled, recovered by Kans Mason FairchildSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
58.1%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Devin NealSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
58.5%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
58.7%
Grayden Addison punt for 35 yds, downed at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:2158% → 61%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
58.0%
AJ Green run for 9 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+59
61.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 59 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
64.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 17 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:1637% → 38%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.7%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+35
62.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 35 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
62.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Torry Locklin for 12 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-17
61.7%
Jalon Daniels pass intercepted Quincey McAdoo return for 17 yds to the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:5765% → 74%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
64.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+8
64.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 8 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+30
64.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 30 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
65.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
65.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
65.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the Kans 24Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
66.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 2 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+15
65.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
66.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Nathan BaxSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
66.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Kans 3Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:1527% → 26%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 15 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
73.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 9 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
73.0%
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
73.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
73.9%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
74.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 8 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
74.4%
Jalon Daniels pass intercepted Dwight McGlothern return for no gain to the Ark 35 ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0078% → 79%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
78.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 12 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
78.5%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
78.8%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
78.9%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+23
78.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 28 yds, downed at the ARKANSAS 40 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3023% → 21%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
77.0%
Jalon Daniels run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
78.3%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-3
78.6%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Terry Hampton for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
79.4%
Grayden Addison punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0580% → 90%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
80.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+17
80.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 17 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
81.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
81.7%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete to Landers, Matt, PENALTY ARKANSAS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ARKANSAS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+26
81.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 26 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
82.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
82.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+10
81.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 10 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
90.3%
AJ Green run for 20 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3913% → 21%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.1%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
86.8%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
87.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 11 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
87.3%
Devin Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+7
88.3%
Jalon Daniels run for 7 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+17
88.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 17 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
87.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+6
86.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 6 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
86.6%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
79.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 24 yds for a TD Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 01:18 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14INT
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:4185% → 84%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
85.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
85.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
50
+41
85.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 32 yds to the ARKANSAS 18 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Kans 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
84.2%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. O.J. Burroughs return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
83.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5415% → 14%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.7%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Kans 26Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
85.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 19Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+27
85.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 27 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Ky Thomas run for no gain to the Kans 46Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
85.1%
Devin Neal run for 6 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
85.2%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
85.7%
Jalon Daniels punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0790% → 98%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.1%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
90.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
90.3%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
90.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 17 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
91.3%
Bryce Stephens run for 21 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
91.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+17
91.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 17 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
92.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
92.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the Kans 2Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for no gain to the Kans 25Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.0%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Kans 26Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
97.2%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
97.3%
Grayden Addison punt for 29 yds , Rashod Dubinion returns for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2098% → 98%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
98.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 3 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-1
98.1%
AJ Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 8
50
-15
98.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 23
OWN 35
+11
98.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Nathan Bax for 11 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
98.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by O.J. Burroughs at the Kans 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:173% → 9%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
97.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 9 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+6
97.8%
Devin Neal run for 6 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+45
97.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 45 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
97.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 20 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.9%
Daniels, Jalon pass incomplete to Arnold, Lawrence, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 4 yards to the ARKANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSAS.Similar
Q3 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.1%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1794% → 94%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
94.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 37 yds, downed at the Kans 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:417% → 9%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
93.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Torry Locklin for 28 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.3%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Torry LocklinSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
92.9%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+10
93.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Torry Locklin for 10 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
93.1%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Tanaka ScottSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
93.6%
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
94.2%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
90.9%
Owen Piepergerdes 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5894% → 95%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.8%
AJ Green run for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
94.4%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-15
94.7%
Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Dubinion, Rashod for 30 yards to the KANSAS26, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 15 yards to the ARKANSAS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+11
94.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 11 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
94.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 44 yds, downed at the Kans 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:017% → 6%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.1%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Tanaka ScottSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-4
93.4%
Ky Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 12Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
94.5%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Mason FairchildSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
94.5%
Grayden Addison punt for 53 yds, downed at the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0396% → 96%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
95.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
96.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
95.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 35 yds, fair catch by O.J. Burroughs at the Kans 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:415% → 3%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
95.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Tanaka Scott for 20 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
94.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 4 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
94.7%
Jalon Daniels run for 8 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
94.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
94.7%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Devin NealSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
95.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Ky Thomas for 6 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
94.6%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Cameron Ball for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 39 Jalon Daniels fumbled, forced by Cameron Ball, recovered by Kans Dominick Puni , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+14
95.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 14 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.6%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
95.9%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
96.3%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 6
OPP 21
0
96.6%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Trevor KardellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27FUMBLE
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:0497% → 98%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
97.3%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
97.9%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+43
98.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 43 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
98.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 30Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+37
98.4%
Matt Landers run for 15 yds to the Ark 48 Matt Landers fumbled, forced by Marvin Grant, recovered by Kans Cobee Bryant , return for 37 yds to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:331% → 10%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 15 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
98.9%
Jalon Daniels run for 7 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
98.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 2 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
98.8%
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-9
98.8%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 19
OPP 30
-10
99.0%
Daniels, Jalon pass incomplete, PENALTY KANSAS holding 10 yards to the ARKANSAS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 29
OPP 40
+30
99.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kevin Terry for 30 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Douglas Emilien for 10 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 29TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:186% → 54%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
50
+34
93.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 34 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
90.1%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
90.3%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-5
92.7%
KANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+21
45.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 21 yds for a TD (Jalon Daniels pass to Lawrence Arnold for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 57 yds · 0:3359% → 64%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
61.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 2 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
61.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+9
59.3%
AJ Green run for 9 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+35
64.4%
AJ Green run for 35 yds to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 31TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 69%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
41.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 17 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
41.1%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Ark 7Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
41.1%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Ark 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
43.6%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Ark 2Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 2 yds for a TD (Owen Piepergerdes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 32TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
28.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 19 yds to the Kans 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 33TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 88%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
65.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 5 yds to the Kans 20Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
88.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 20 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Jaedon Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 34TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0013% → 59%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
87.3%
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the Ark 22Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-10
87.3%
Daniels, Jalon rush for 2 yards to the ARKANSAS20, PENALTY KANSAS holding 10 yards to the ARKANSAS32, NO PLAY.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+11
90.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 11 yds to the Ark 21Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+19
90.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 19 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.2%
Jalon Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD Jalon Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the Ark 1 Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:00 (Jalon Daniels pass to Jared Casey for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 35DOWNS
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.4%
KJ Jefferson pass to Rashod Dubinion for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 36DOWNS
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
70.7%
Two-Point Conversion failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:41
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 21 yds for a TD (Jalon Daniels pass to Lawrence Arnold for Two-Point Conversion)
-46.8
TD · OT 0:00
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
+37.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+29.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com