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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreIOWA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:53 · Joe Labas pass incomplete to Luke Lachey
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:08: Joe Labas pass complete to Luke Lachey for 15 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +6.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:57: Destin Wade pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Nwankpa return for 52 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +6.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:36: Destin Wade pass intercepted for a TD Cooper DeJean return for 14 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +6.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:24: JuTahn McClain run for 6 yds to the Kent 22 — UK win probability +6.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05: KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Justin Rogers) to the Iowa 27 — IOWA win probability +8.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 12 of 15IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
- Q1 12:38UK 4th & 10 at UK 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.2%average punt
- Q1 8:48IOWA 4th & 2 at UK 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.1%57% to convertField goal54.9%−0.249% to makePunt54.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 5:14UK 4th & 2 at IOWA 46, tiedClose callPunted · 46.5% before the snapGo for it46.6%57% to convertField goal45.9%−0.723% to makePuntTheir call46.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:59IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 47, tiedClose callPunted · 53.7% before the snapGo for it54.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:44UK 4th & 3 at UK 9, tiedClose callPunted · 46.2% before the snapGo for it46.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:46IOWA 4th & 7 at UK 45, tiedClose callPunted · 53.4% before the snapGo for it53.5%37% to convertField goal52.9%−0.625% to makePuntTheir call53.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:02UK 4th & 9 at UK 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it46.3%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%average punt
- Q2 9:08UK 4th & 7 at UK 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.4%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.8%average punt
- Q2 7:30IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 28, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it70.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%−1.7average punt
- Q2 3:44UK 4th & 14 at UK 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it26.5%−1.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.1%average punt
- Q2 1:58IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 47, up 14Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snapGo for it73.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:05UK 4th & 4 at UK 40, down 21Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it16.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:23IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, up 21Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it88.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.3%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:43UK 4th & 12 at UK 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it13.3%−1.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q3 9:04IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it90.7%−2.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q3 5:47UK 4th & 2 at UK 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 4:19UK 4th & 12 at UK 45, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it5.8%−1.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q3 2:35IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 20, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%average punt
- Q3 0:33UK 4th & 3 at IOWA 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%52% to convertField goal4.3%−1.432% to makePunt4.6%−1.1average punt
- Q4 14:10UK 4th & 9 at IOWA 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%32% to convertField goal3.9%−<0.142% to makePunt3.7%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:01IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 44, up 21Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%−0.3average punt
- Q4 9:39UK 4th & 14 at UK 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q4 5:53IOWA 4th & 2 at UK 28, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%57% to convertField goal98.6%−0.260% to makePunt97.8%−1.0average punt
- Q4 4:05UK 4th & 6 at UK 32, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:22UK 4th & 1 at IOWA 48, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 12:08IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.6%97% to makeGo for two58.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:57IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.4%97% to makeGo for two64.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:36IOWA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1742% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.8%
Destin Wade pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
41.9%
Destin Wade pass complete to Dane Key for 15 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
42.4%
Wilson Berry punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cooper DeJean at the Iowa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2DOWNS7 plays · 45 yds · 3:4358% → 57%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
42.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Diante Vines for 11 yds to the Iowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
42.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 14 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
42.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Luke Lachey for 12 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:2744% → 45%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
43.6%
Destin Wade pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
44.4%
Destin Wade pass complete to Dane Key for 4 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+34
44.9%
Wilson Berry punt for 40 yds , Cooper DeJean returns for 34 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0956% → 55%
Q1 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+2
43.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Leshon Williams for 2 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0945% → 45%
Q1 0:44
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
44.8%
Wilson Berry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cooper DeJean at the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5256% → 55%
Q2 14:46
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
45.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the Kent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3846% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8TD2 plays · 42 yds · 0:4556% → 63%
UKDrive 9INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-52
32.6%
Destin Wade pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Nwankpa return for 52 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4132% → 31%
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
32.5%
Destin Wade pass complete to Barion Brown for 5 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
31.9%
Destin Wade sacked by Yahya Black for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+4
30.6%
Destin Wade pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 4 yds to the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3370% → 70%
Q2 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+50
29.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 50 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 3:3929% → 27%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
28.9%
Destin Wade sacked by Jack Campbell for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+5
27.6%
Destin Wade pass complete to Barion Brown for 5 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+26
26.8%
Wilson Berry punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cooper DeJean at the KENTUCKY 27 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Taj Dodson) to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4174% → 75%
Q2 1:58
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
24.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the Kent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14INT TD6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1524% → 18%
UKDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 1:1919% → 19%
IOWADrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0489% → 89%
IOWADrive 17PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3188% → 88%
Q3 13:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
12.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3415% → 14%
IOWADrive 19PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:3591% → 92%
UKDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 36 yds · 4:3810% → 7%
IOWADrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4096% → 96%
Q3 2:35
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+26
4.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 59 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 26 yds to the Kentucky 47 IOWA Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22DOWNS9 plays · 12 yds · 3:206% → 4%
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-15
6.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 24
OWN 38
+10
4.9%
Destin Wade pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 10 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+11
4.9%
Destin Wade pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+4
5.2%
Destin Wade pass complete to Dane Key for 4 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0197% → 97%
Q4 12:01
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
2.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:143% → 3%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
3.0%
Destin Wade pass complete to Barion Brown for 10 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.9%
Destin Wade pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
2.7%
Destin Wade sacked by Sebastian Castro for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 44 yds · 3:4298% → 99%
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
1.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Diante Vines for 12 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+19
1.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 19 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
1.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jaziun Patterson for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 3:261% → 1%
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
1.3%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 2 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+2
1.2%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+11
1.2%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Dane Key for 11 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-2
1.1%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to La'Vell Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+8
1.1%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 8 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-2
1.1%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27Uncategorized6 plays · 24 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Justin Rogers) to the Iowa 27
-8.4
TD · Q2 1:36
Destin Wade pass intercepted for a TD Cooper DeJean return for 14 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 12:08
Joe Labas pass complete to Luke Lachey for 15 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-6.7