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TCU

TCU 51 at Michigan 45

MICH
2022 · CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl · Dec 31, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+27.4MICH 61.4%Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthyPass to Ronnie Bell for Two-PointConversion)AWAY 41 - HOME 38 · Q4 14:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:13 · Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Home team on offense+1.0Pregame prior+5.6Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:32: Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +18.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 0:03: Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Run for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +22.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:13: Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +27.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 13:07: Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +20.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:18: Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +29.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:30MICH 4th & 2 at TCU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:46MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:46MICH 4th & 5 at TCU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:35TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:20MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33MICH 4th & 20 at TCU 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:47TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:38TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:29MICH 4th & 4 at TCU 4, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−10.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:09MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:02TCU 4th & 9 at MICH 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−10.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:50MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:46TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 16, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:52TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:25MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:22TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:27TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:56TCU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:32MICH Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:25TCU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:52TCU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    86.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:47MICH Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:49TCU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:03MICH Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:13MICH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:07TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:18MICH Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2273% → 72%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
73.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 54 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
73.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
73.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+9
73.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
73.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
73.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 11Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
73.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
72.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
72.4%
Colston Loveland sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5428% → 28%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
72.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
72.2%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
72.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
72.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-41
70.3%
Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2470% → 69%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
69.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
69.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:0831% → 40%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
68.8%
Kendre Miller run for 14 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.0%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+12
67.5%
Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
67.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 21 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
66.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
66.1%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+7
66.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 7 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
65.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
65.0%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
64.7%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.0%
Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:1461% → 61%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+32
59.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 32 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
60.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+16
60.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 16 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
60.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
60.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-1
59.2%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
61.0%
Jake Moody 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
59.2%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Rod Moore return for no gain to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:2061% → 62%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+50
61.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 50 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.0%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 1 Kalel Mullings fumbled, recovered by TCU Bud ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:0541% → 43%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
58.6%
Kendre Miller run for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
57.9%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
56.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
56.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+16
57.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 16 yds to the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0558% → 56%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
58.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
57.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 8 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
57.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-2
57.8%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
56.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
56.0%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:0944% → 67%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
55.6%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+13
55.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
54.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
53.8%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
52.2%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
50.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 32 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
50.3%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+9
49.7%
Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
49.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
33.3%
Taye Barber 6 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:0740% → 36%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.2%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
39.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 14 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
40.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+15
39.7%
TCU Penalty, Roughing Passer (Johnny Hodges) to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
39.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-5
38.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 13
OPP 42
-7
37.1%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 20
OPP 49
0
35.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
35.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:3971% → 71%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
29.3%
Emari Demercado run for 16 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
28.6%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
27.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-7
27.5%
Max Duggan sacked by Makari Paige for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
28.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:4233% → 43%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
32.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
32.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
33.6%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 37 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, forced by Dylan Horton, recovered by MichSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+7
31.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+15
39.6%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+59
43.0%
Jake Moody 59 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1364% → 66%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
36.2%
Max Duggan run for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
33.8%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
31.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
33.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+27
34.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 42 yds TCU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Namdi Obiazor) to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
7 plays · 63 yds · 4:0137% → 39%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
37.1%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+20
35.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
37.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 43 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
36.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.1%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
34.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 4Similar
Q3 9:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
38.9%
Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:3165% → 68%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
33.6%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
34.1%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
32.6%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-8
32.2%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Mike Sainristil return for 8 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:5839% → 57%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
39.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
38.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
57.1%
Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5953% → 76%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
47.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 46 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
42.6%
Emari Demercado run for 15 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
42.2%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
41.0%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+5
41.9%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.5%
Emari Demercado 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20INT TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1331% → 17%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
31.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-1
31.6%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-29
16.8%
Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:5316% → 33%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
15.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
15.2%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Josh Newton) to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
16.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for 39 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
33.1%
J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:4177% → 95%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
22.9%
Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+69
20.7%
Emari Demercado run for 69 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.2%
Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:3812% → 34%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
12.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
12.0%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Millard Bradford) to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
12.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 44 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.3%
Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.9%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27 Emari Demercado fumbled, forced by Mazi Smith, recovered by Mich Mazi SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:2734% → 61%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
34.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+18
61.4%
Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:4851% → 72%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
48.8%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
48.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+76
28.4%
Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:3627% → 22%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
26.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-12
25.5%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 12 yards to the Mich 7 MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (J.J. McCarthy) to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 16
OWN 7
0
23.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 16
OWN 7
+31
22.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds , Derius Davis returns for 31 yds to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5880% → 92%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
20.5%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+2
19.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 2 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-2
13.8%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
7.8%
Griffin Kell 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0518% → 14%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
13.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 64 yds, downed at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5493% → 95%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
6.8%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
6.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 18
-2
5.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 16Similar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
5.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 31TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1212% → 39%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
11.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
12.0%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
15.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
15.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+5
13.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
14.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-2
14.1%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+6
11.0%
J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
9.6%
Kalel Mullings run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 5Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.0%
Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 32PUNT
12 plays · 15 yds · 2:1384% → 93%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
16.2%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+7
13.5%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
11.4%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
10.6%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+4
7.0%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
6.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-5
6.3%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
6.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 50 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 33DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2011% → 9%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.2%
J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
11.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
11.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Colston Loveland) to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
9.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-1
8.6%
Donovan Edwards pass complete to Colston Loveland for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 34Uncategorized
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:18
Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)
+29.4
TD · Q4 14:13
Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.4
TD · Q3 0:03
Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+22
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com