Try the model
LSU

LSU 63 at Purdue 7

PUR
2022 · Cheez-It Citrus Bowl · Jan 2, 2023 · Camping World Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD—PUR 0.1%Jack Albers pass intercepted for a TDQuad Wilson return for 99 yds for a TD(Ezekeal Mata KICK) (Trey FinisonKICK)AWAY 63 - HOME 7 · Q4 0:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · Jack Albers pass intercepted for a TD Quad Wilson return for 99 yds for a TD (Ezekeal Mata KICK) (Trey Finison KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Home team on offense−58.4Score differential−46.2Pregame prior−0.4Garbage-time factor−19.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−11.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:01: John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:06: Noah Cain 9 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:03: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 32 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:23: Noah Cain run for 9 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:07: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 13LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:40LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30LSU 4th & 2 at PUR 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:14PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:02PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:16PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:25PUR 4th & 22 at PUR 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:27PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 28, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:54LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 20, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:45PUR 4th & 3 at LSU 45, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:10PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 34, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:01PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 46, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:43LSU 4th & 6 at PUR 42, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:48PUR 4th & 8 at LSU 42, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:40PUR 4th & 9 at LSU 21, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 7:01LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:06LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:03LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:23LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:07LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:21LSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:15LSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:53PUR Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:47LSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:40LSU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:5084% → 84%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
16.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Noah Cain for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
16.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
16.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
16.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
16.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+14
16.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 50 yds , Andrew Sowinski returns for 14 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2917% → 17%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
16.9%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
17.0%
Austin Burton run for 5 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
17.1%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+11
17.0%
Jack Ansell punt for 47 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for 11 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:2583% → 83%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
17.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 19 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
17.5%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Prdue 43Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
17.7%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Prdue 42Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+6
18.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+12
18.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
18.3%
LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+14
18.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 14 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+5
18.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 5 yds to the Prdue 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
18.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
18.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:2818% → 18%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.0%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
18.5%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Eric Miller) to the Prdue 27Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
18.3%
Austin Burton pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 7 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
18.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 5 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
18.7%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
18.7%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the Prdue 40Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
18.7%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Drew BiberSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+27
18.4%
Jack Ansell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the PURDUE 18 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Deion Burks) to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:5982% → 85%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
18.3%
Noah Cain run for 14 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
18.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
18.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Noah Cain for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+14
18.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 14 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
18.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
18.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+17
18.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 17 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
18.1%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Prdue 9Similar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+9
15.5%
Noah Cain 9 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4716% → 16%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
16.3%
Dylan Downing run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 24Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
16.3%
Austin Burton pass complete to TJ Sheffield for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 21Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
16.1%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Devin MockobeeSimilar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
16.1%
Jack Ansell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:5985% → 90%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
15.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 3 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
15.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+17
15.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 17 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
15.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 6 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+32
9.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 32 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2611% → 11%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
11.4%
Austin Burton pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
11.4%
Devin Mockobee run for 8 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
11.5%
Austin Burton sacked by Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-3
11.2%
TJ Sheffield run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-5
10.8%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 28Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+9
10.7%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 9 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
10.8%
Jack Ansell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2391% → 94%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
9.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
8.7%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 5
50
+4
8.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 4 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+37
8.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 37 yds to the Prdue 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
6.3%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10INT
15 plays · 50 yds · 4:206% → 8%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.3%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
6.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 3 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
6.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 6 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
4.8%
Jack Sullivan run for 5 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
5.0%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
4.8%
Austin Burton pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 8 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+2
4.6%
Austin Burton run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
4.9%
Michael Alaimo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
4.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 5 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+10
4.9%
Austin Burton pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 10 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
7.4%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
7.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Paul Piferi for 11 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-35
7.5%
Austin Burton pass intercepted Jarrick Bernard-Converse return for 23 yds to the LSU 25 LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jarrick Bernard-Converse) to the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:4395% → 97%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
4.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+12
4.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 12 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
4.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 15 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
3.8%
Malik Nabers pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 45 yds to the Prdue 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
2.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:383% → 2%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 11 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
2.7%
Austin Burton pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 8 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-12
2.6%
Austin Burton sacked by Zavier Carter for a loss of 12 yards to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-8
2.0%
Austin Burton sacked by Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 8 yards to the Prdue 24Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 22
OWN 24
0
1.9%
Jack Ansell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:262% → 2%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.4%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
2.0%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
1.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
1.9%
Mockobee, Devin rush for no gain to the PURDUE34, PENALTY LSU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the PURDUE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.0%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Devin MockobeeSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
1.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 5 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+1
1.8%
Austin Burton pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 1 yd to the Prdue 45Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
1.8%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5898% → 99%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
1.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+10
1.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Landon Ibieta for 10 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
1.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
1.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
1.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
1.4%
Noah Cain run for 11 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
1.4%
Noah Cain run for 8 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
1.2%
Malik Nabers pass complete to Jayden Daniels for 5 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
1.0%
Michael Alaimo pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the Prdue 25 LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5999% → 99%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
1.3%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
1.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 6 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
1.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+9
1.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+29
1.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 29 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
1.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+8
0.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 8 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
0.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Kardell Thomas) to the Prdue 8Similar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted, touchback. Jamari Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
0.6%
Michael Alaimo run for 7 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
0.5%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
0.5%
Jack Ansell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
0.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 75 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:020% → 0%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
Michael Alaimo run for 8 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.3%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
0.3%
Tyrone Tracy run for 14 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
0.3%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 45 Michael Alaimo fumbled, recovered by PrdueSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+3
0.3%
Tyrone Tracy run for 3 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+14
0.3%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 14 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
0.3%
Tyrone Tracy run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+26
0.2%
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 26 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
0.3%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
0.4%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 16 yds for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.5%
Walker Howard run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 20 Walker Howard fumbled, recovered by LSU Derrick Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
0.5%
Walker Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
0.5%
Walker Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+21
0.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 53 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 21 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
0.3%
Deion Burks run for 4 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
0.2%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Tyrone Tracy for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
0.3%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Paul PiferiSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
0.2%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.3%
Walker Howard pass complete to Landon Ibieta for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 5
50
+7
0.3%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 7 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Walker Howard run for no gain to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
0.3%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 6 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+23
0.3%
Walker Howard run for 23 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
0.2%
Nick Demas run for 2 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
0.3%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Ezekeal Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
0.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
0.1%
Michael Alaimo run for 2 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
0.1%
Tyrone Tracy run for 7 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Michael Alaimo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
0.1%
Michael Alaimo run for 5 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for no gain to the Prdue 46Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
0.2%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
0.2%
Walker Howard pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 2 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+2
0.2%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26INT TD
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:580% → 0%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.1%
Jacob Wahlberg run for 4 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+12
0.1%
Jack Albers pass complete to Ben Buechel for 12 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Jack Albers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.1%
Jacob Wahlberg run for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Jack Albers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 8
OPP 42
+20
0.1%
Jack Albers pass complete to Alex Maxwell for 20 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.1%
Jacob Wahlberg run for no gain to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
0.1%
Jack Albers run for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
0.1%
Jack Albers pass incomplete to Alex MaxwellSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 9
OPP 21
-99
0.1%
Jack Albers pass intercepted for a TD Quad Wilson return for 99 yds for a TD (Ezekeal Mata KICK) (Trey Finison KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:03
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 32 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
-5.4
TD · Q1 1:06
Noah Cain 9 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)
-2.7
TD · Q2 8:23
Noah Cain run for 9 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
-2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com