Try the model
UCF

UCF 13 at Duke 30

DUKE
2022 · Military Bowl · Dec 28, 2022 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:14 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense+7.3Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Pregame prior+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:10: Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +4.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:54: Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Todd Pelino 48 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +5.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:02: Todd Pelino 38 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +3.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:03: Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UCF win probability +8.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:33UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:58UCF 4th & 1 at DUKE 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:39UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:28DUKE 4th & 4 at UCF 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:14UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00DUKE 4th & 9 at UCF 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:02DUKE 4th & 4 at UCF 21, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−7.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:07UCF 4th & 19 at UCF 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:25DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 6, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:51UCF 4th & 2 at DUKE 24, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:10DUKE 4th & 9 at UCF 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:20UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:49DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:25UCF 4th & 18 at UCF 32, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:47DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:10UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:54DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:03UCF Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:29DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2144% → 44%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
55.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
55.7%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
55.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
55.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
55.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 42 yds, downed at the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 4:3556% → 60%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
55.9%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+1
56.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+17
55.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 17 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
56.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Cole FinneySimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+37
56.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 37 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
56.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
57.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+9
56.8%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
59.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 14 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3141% → 46%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 13 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
58.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+19
59.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 19 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
58.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
58.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
58.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
59.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
58.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
58.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 7 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
58.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
59.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
58.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0057% → 56%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
56.8%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
56.6%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
55.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 57 yds, downed at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1344% → 43%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
55.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 15 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
55.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+9
55.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
55.0%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
54.9%
Xavier Townsend run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-7
55.5%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Tre Freeman for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
57.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5857% → 61%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
56.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 22 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
58.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
58.1%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Hagans, Sahmir, PENALTY UCF roughing passer 15 yards to the UCF32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
59.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+8
60.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Terry Moore for 8 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
60.1%
Terry Moore run for 5 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
60.0%
Terry Moore run for 6 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
60.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
60.5%
Todd Pelino 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3541% → 43%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
58.6%
Xavier Townsend run for 9 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+15
57.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 15 yds to the Duke 42 John Rhys Plumlee fumbled, forced by Brandon Johnson, recovered by Duke Darius JoinerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:2762% → 72%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
61.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+12
62.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Cole Finney for 12 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
62.9%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
62.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+6
62.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
63.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 32 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.1%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3130% → 28%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
70.4%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
69.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-2
70.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
72.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:5871% → 79%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
71.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
72.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
72.8%
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
73.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 5 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
73.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
73.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+1
72.7%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
78.7%
Todd Pelino 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 6:4979% → 88%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
79.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
81.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
82.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
82.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
83.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
83.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+6
82.9%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
83.9%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
84.4%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
84.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+7
84.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
88.2%
Todd Pelino 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4115% → 13%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
85.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 14 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
84.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
84.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
84.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
84.9%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+5
86.3%
DUKE Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-11
85.1%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Cam Dillon for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
86.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 60 yds, downed at the Duke 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2990% → 90%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
90.0%
Terry Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
90.3%
Terry Moore run for no gain to the Duke 6Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
90.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
89.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 26 yds, downed at the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2514% → 12%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
85.9%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
87.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
87.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+1
88.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 1 yd to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:3192% → 93%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
91.7%
Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
92.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 16 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
93.2%
Terry Moore run for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
93.4%
Terry Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-1
93.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
93.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, downed at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 5:008% → 16%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
91.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
91.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 9 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
91.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-9
91.4%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Cam Dillon for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+16
92.7%
RJ Harvey run for 16 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
92.1%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+2
92.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+37
93.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 37 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
92.7%
RJ Harvey pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 16 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5589% → 89%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Malik Bowen-SimsSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
89.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1610% → 7%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
90.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
90.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 13 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-9
89.8%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Darius Joiner for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 31 John Rhys Plumlee fumbled, forced by Darius Joiner, recovered by UCF John Rhys Plumlee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 19
OWN 31
0
91.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+1
92.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 18
OWN 32
-6
92.6%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Ryan Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 26 John Rhys Plumlee fumbled, forced by Ryan Smith, recovered by UCF Ryan Swoboda , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4393% → 99%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
92.5%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
93.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+5
92.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
94.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (7 Yards) to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
94.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
94.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.7%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20INT
13 plays · 62 yds · 1:342% → 2%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 9 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
97.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 9 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 7 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 5 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 22 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted, touchback. Chandler Rivers return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2599% → 99%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:54
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q4 9:03
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-8.5
FG · Q2 0:00
Todd Pelino 48 yd FG GOOD
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com