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WAKE

Wake Forest 27 at Missouri 17

MIZ
2022 · Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl · Dec 23, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:27 · Sean Koetting punt for 45 yds, downed at the WFrst 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Home team on offense−5.3Pregame prior−2.1Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:28: Brady Cook pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +12.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:45: Cody Schrader run for 4 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +15.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:29: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 48 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis PAT MISSED) — WAKE win probability +19.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:10: Quinton Cooley run for 19 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST down — WAKE win probability +9.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:33: Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 16 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +8.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 13:38MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:46MIZ 4th & 11 at WAKE 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−3.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:10WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:05MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:04MIZ 4th & 16 at MIZ 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:53WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 33, up 11
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58WAKE 4th & 9 at MIZ 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:07WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 48, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:55MIZ 4th & 3 at WAKE 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−1.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:27MIZ 4th & 17 at MIZ 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−4.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:51WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:18MIZ 4th & 4 at WAKE 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−4.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−3.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:34MIZ 4th & 3 at WAKE 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−5.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:40WAKE 4th & 18 at MIZ 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−5.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−4.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:55MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 37, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:43WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:51WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:28MIZ Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:45MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:29WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:33WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1643% → 43%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.0%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
43.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 9 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
43.4%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
43.4%
Sean Koetting punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 3:4257% → 58%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
43.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
43.4%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+28
43.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 28 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
43.5%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
43.5%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+14
43.6%
Justice Ellison run for 14 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
43.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
43.6%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+15
43.8%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T. (TEAM), PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Abrams-Draine, Kris) 15 yards to the MISSOURI5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q1 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.7%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the Misso 5Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 7:3443% → 44%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
42.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 14 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
42.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Misso Brady CookSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+10
42.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 10 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+12
42.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 12 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
43.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 6 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
43.1%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+9
43.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 9 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
43.5%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
43.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+5
42.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 5 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+13
42.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 13 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
43.6%
Luther Burden III run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 19Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 13
OPP 19
0
42.9%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+2
42.1%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
44.4%
Harrison Mevis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2056% → 55%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
43.5%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
43.9%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
44.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 36 yds, downed at the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0544% → 43%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
44.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+10
44.0%
Brady Cook run for 10 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
45.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-3
44.1%
Brady Cook sacked by Tyler Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
43.2%
Sean Koetting punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5956% → 65%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
43.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 27 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
42.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 12 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
42.3%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
41.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Blake WhiteheartSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+8
42.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 8 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
43.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offside Defense (Josh Landry) to the Misso 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
41.8%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.8%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.1%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:3437% → 35%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.8%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
36.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 19 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
38.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-1
36.7%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 16
OWN 48
0
36.4%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
35.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Barrett BanisterSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
34.8%
Sean Koetting punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5765% → 66%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
35.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
35.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 7 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
34.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Chad Bailey for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+8
34.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
33.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
34.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 32 yds , Luther Burden III returns for no gain to the Misso 35 Luther Burden III fumbled, recovered by WFrst Will CobbSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9INT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:3568% → 69%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
32.1%
Sam Hartman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
32.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+11
32.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
31.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
31.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-5
31.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
31.5%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted, touchback. Jaylon Carlies return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1231% → 46%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
31.3%
Cody Schrader run for 16 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.0%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
32.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 7 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+17
32.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 17 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+36
32.9%
Brady Cook run for 36 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 1:2460% → 61%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.4%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
40.3%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
40.0%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSOURI roughing holder (Robinson, Darius) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
38.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
37.2%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
37.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
37.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Blake WhiteheartSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+1
38.2%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
39.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 32 yds, downed at the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12END OF HALF
11 plays · 60 yds · 0:5337% → 44%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
37.0%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 6Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+7
38.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 7 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+7
38.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 7 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
39.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
41.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 4 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
40.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
39.6%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Logan MuckeySimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+25
38.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 25 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
43.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 12 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4358% → 59%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.6%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
40.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
40.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-1
39.6%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
41.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 35 yds, downed at the Misso 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 6:0043% → 65%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
42.6%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
42.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tavorus Jones for 4 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+12
41.4%
Brady Cook run for 12 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
43.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 11 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
47.0%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-10
47.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 17
OPP 46
0
44.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+14
42.9%
Cody Schrader run for 14 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+7
44.5%
Brady Cook run for 7 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
49.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
47.8%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+3
45.5%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
48.0%
Cook, Brady pass incomplete to Cooper, Mookie, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Wingfield, Isaiah) 13 yards to the WAKEFOREST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
48.0%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 4Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.5%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0142% → 64%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
55.0%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
55.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 12 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
35.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 48 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4344% → 39%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
43.9%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-10
46.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
41.8%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 17
OWN 30
0
39.8%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Barrett BanisterSimilar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
38.9%
Sean Koetting punt for 45 yds, downed at the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0961% → 58%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-8
37.5%
Sam Hartman sacked by Chad Bailey and Josh Landry for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
41.7%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1747% → 44%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
47.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
47.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
46.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
44.1%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0164% → 58%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
36.1%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
36.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 6 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
35.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-10
37.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
41.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the Misso 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:0642% → 40%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
41.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 3 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
41.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+8
41.2%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
43.2%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
42.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
45.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+1
45.5%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
44.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
39.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3070% → 66%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
30.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 19 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
28.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+1
26.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-10
28.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
30.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 13
OPP 41
-5
34.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
34.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3537% → 35%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
37.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+16
37.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 16 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
38.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 8 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-7
41.1%
Brady Cook sacked by Tyler Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
33.9%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
34.8%
Sean Koetting punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0773% → 94%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.2%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+26
26.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
21.7%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
20.0%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
19.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 4 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
17.2%
Sam Hartman run for 15 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
15.2%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
5.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 16 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · -16 yds · 1:185% → 3%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
4.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 5 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
4.8%
Brady Cook sacked by Kobie Turner for a loss of 12 yards to the Misso 24 Brady Cook fumbled, forced by Kobie Turner, recovered by MissoSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 22
OWN 24
-11
2.7%
Brady Cook sacked by Rondell Bothroyd for a loss of 11 yards to the Misso 13Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 33
OWN 13
0
2.6%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 33
OWN 13
-4
2.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:29
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 48 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis PAT MISSED)
-19.6
TD · Q3 5:45
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+15
TD · Q2 2:28
Brady Cook pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com