Try the model
LIB

Liberty 19 at Toledo 21

TOL
2022 · RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl · Dec 20, 2022 · FAU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:35 · Nick Brown 32 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+5.2Pregame prior+3.6Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:45: Dequan Finn pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 4 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +15.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:35: Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout LIBERTY, clock 10:35 (Dequan Finn pass to Jacquez Stuart for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +9.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:24: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown PAT MISSED) — LIB win probability +11.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:40: CJ Daniels pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 67 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — LIB win probability +26.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:31: Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 35 — TOL win probability +10.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:04LIB 4th & 1 at TOL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27TOL 4th & 8 at LIB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:55TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53LIB 4th & 6 at TOL 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:51TOL 4th & 13 at LIB 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:28LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 30, up 4
    Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:59TOL 4th & 7 at LIB 38, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.7
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08TOL 4th & 12 at LIB 37, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:09TOL 4th & 12 at LIB 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:50LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:35LIB 4th & 15 at TOL 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−3.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−10.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:53TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 3:50LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:45TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:35TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:24LIB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    11.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:40LIB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:4638% → 38%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
62.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 5 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+13
62.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Caleb Snead for 13 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
62.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 4 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
62.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
62.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 7 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
62.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
62.1%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
62.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for no gain to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
62.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 5:2862% → 62%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
62.3%
Finn, Dequan pass complete to Stuart, Jacquez for 8 yards to the TOLEDO20, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+5
62.3%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
62.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+12
62.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
62.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
62.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
62.7%
Dequan Finn sacked by Durrell Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+18
62.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 18 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
62.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
62.9%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
62.7%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 8
OPP 39
-8
62.1%
Dequan Finn sacked by TreShaun Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:3039% → 44%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
61.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
61.1%
Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+20
60.7%
Kaidon Salter run for 20 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
60.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Jerome JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
60.3%
Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Snead, Caleb, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDonald, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY.Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
56.1%
Shedro Louis run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5158% → 56%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.4%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
56.4%
Dequan Finn sacked by Aakil Washington and Mike Smith Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+1
55.6%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 41 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5745% → 45%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
55.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
54.7%
Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Snead, Caleb, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDonald, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY.Similar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
54.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
53.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ YarbroughSimilar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-1
54.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
54.6%
Aidan Alves punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5555% → 57%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
55.3%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the Toled 9Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+12
55.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
55.0%
Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
55.1%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
56.0%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
55.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 38 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
56.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
56.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
54.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
57.4%
Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1243% → 42%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
57.5%
Shedro Louis run for no gain to the Liber 22Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
57.4%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Jackson Barrow for a loss of 7 yards to the Liber 15Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+15
57.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 15 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+22
57.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 54 yds , Adam Beale returns for 22 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:2458% → 56%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
57.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
57.6%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
57.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
58.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 6 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+4
58.3%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
58.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Devan Rogers) to the Liber 46Similar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+1
56.6%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+2
56.3%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+5
55.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
55.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0546% → 45%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
54.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
54.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
53.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+7
54.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 50 yds , Adam Beale returns for 7 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:3255% → 47%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
55.1%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
56.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
56.5%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+9
56.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
58.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
57.8%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-6
54.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
47.4%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
49.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0653% → 70%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.9%
Jerjuan Newton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 24 Jerjuan Newton fumbled, recovered by ToledSimilar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
52.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
52.7%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
53.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
50
+15
55.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 15 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
57.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
57.2%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+7
54.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
57.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
56.9%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Liber 17 Peny Boone fumbled, forced by Mike Smith Jr., recovered by Toled Anthony TorresSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+13
54.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 13 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 4 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2835% → 36%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
64.9%
Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 1
OWN 21
-13
63.7%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 13 yards to the Liber 8 Kaidon Salter fumbled, forced by Nate Givhan, recovered by Toled Jamal Hines , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4770% → 72%
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
70.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
68.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
71.9%
Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1130% → 29%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
70.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 17 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
68.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 3 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
67.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 2
50
-5
67.1%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Cooper McCaw) to the Liber 45Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
68.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+44
70.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 44 yds , Adam Beale returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 10 Adam Beale fumbled, recovered by Liber Treon SibleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0736% → 28%
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
64.1%
Shedro Louis run for 7 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
64.1%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 6Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
66.0%
Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Jackson, Jerome, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (McCaw, Cooper) 10 yards to the TOLEDO16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-5
68.9%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Bentley Hanshaw) to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+6
69.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 6 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
71.7%
Nick Brown 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 6:5376% → 96%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
75.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
77.5%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
76.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
78.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+10
77.4%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete to Stuart, Jacquez, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (Smith Jr., Mike) 10 yards to the TOLEDO39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
79.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
80.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
79.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
80.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-4
80.9%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
79.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 9 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
81.5%
Micah Kelly run for 16 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
83.1%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+13
85.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 13 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
84.9%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 5Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 4 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout LIBERTY, clock 10:35 (Dequan Finn pass to Jacquez Stuart for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:016% → 18%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
94.0%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
94.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
94.3%
Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Jackson, Jerome, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (McCaw, Cooper) 10 yards to the LIBERTY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
94.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+15
94.8%
Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Douglas, Demario, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Mitchell, Quinyon) 15 yards to the LIBERTY47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY.Similar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
94.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 11 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
94.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+5
94.0%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
82.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:2391% → 93%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
91.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 12 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
92.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
94.6%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-12
94.5%
Dequan Finn sacked by Aakil Washington for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
92.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
66.8%
CJ Daniels pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 67 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21Uncategorized
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:2978% → 92%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
77.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
79.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
80.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
84.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 16 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
88.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+6
88.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
91.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:40
CJ Daniels pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 67 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-26.1
TD · Q3 8:45
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 4 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q4 7:24
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown PAT MISSED)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com