Try the model
CCU

Coastal Carolina 29 at East Carolina 53

ECU
2022 · TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl · Dec 27, 2022 · Protective Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:13 · TEAM punt blocked by Jameson Tucker blocked by Jameson Tucker Jameson Tucker return for 12 yds to the ECaro 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+30.7Pregame prior+2.5Score differential+22.3Garbage-time factor+13.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:37: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +6.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:44: Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +8.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:13: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +9.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:46: Jarrett Guest pass complete to Tyler Roberts for 47 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +10.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:36: Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +9.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:52ECU 4th & 11 at CCU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:09CCU 4th & 22 at CCU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:47ECU 4th & 6 at CCU 27, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:38ECU 4th & 2 at CCU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:01CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:35CCU 4th & 22 at ECU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:00ECU 4th & 3 at CCU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:36ECU 4th & 1 at CCU 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−9.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:08CCU 4th & 20 at CCU 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:08CCU 4th & 13 at ECU 23, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:13ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:47ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:38CCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:52CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:37ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:44ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:13ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:46CCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:36ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:45ECU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:07CCU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:14ECU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:0371% → 71%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
70.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
70.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
70.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
70.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 17 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
70.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 6 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+27
70.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 27 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
70.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 10Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
70.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Kerry KingSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
70.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Ja'Quon Griffin for a loss of 10 yards to the CCaro 20Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
70.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
70.6%
Andrew Conrad 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 4:2130% → 29%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.5%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
70.4%
Reese White run for 7 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
70.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to TJ Ivy Jr. for 4 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
70.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for no gain to the CCaro 36Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
70.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 7 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
69.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
69.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Taji Hudson) to the ECaro 48Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-6
69.6%
Grayson McCall sacked by Jeremy Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-15
70.0%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jared Brown COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Willie Lampkin) to the CCaro 31Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
70.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:0970% → 73%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+46
70.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 46 yds to the CCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
71.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jaylen Johnson) to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 25
OPP 46
+10
70.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+9
70.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
70.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+27
73.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 27 yds for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:0028% → 33%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
72.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 7 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
72.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 2 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
72.4%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+13
72.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
72.3%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
71.9%
Grayson McCall run for 9 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
71.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to TJ Ivy Jr. for 25 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.8%
Grayson McCall run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.4%
Reese White run for 1 yd for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4769% → 69%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
69.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 16 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
70.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
70.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Brock Spalding for 5 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-2
70.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+5
70.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 5 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+1
69.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the CCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3831% → 40%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
68.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+6
69.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 6 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+15
69.6%
McCall, Grayson pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Revel, Shavon) 15 yards to the COASTALCAR48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COASTALCAR.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
67.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jameson TuckerSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
67.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 8 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+15
66.8%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (D'Anta Johnson) to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
65.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 20 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
60.1%
Grayson McCall run for 9 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:0265% → 71%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
64.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
64.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
63.9%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Winstead, Isaiah, PENALTY COASTALCAR offside 5 yards to the COASTALCAR42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+35
64.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 35 yds to the CCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
64.8%
Ahlers, Holton pass complete to Savage, Tyler for 7 yards to the COASTALCAR0, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference 15 yards to the COASTALCAR22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
+11
64.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 11 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
64.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
70.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3631% → 30%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
68.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Willie Lampkin) to the CCaro 17Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 15
OWN 17
-1
68.8%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 16Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+8
69.0%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Patrick McSweeney for 8 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
69.6%
Jarrett Guest pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
70.4%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 39 yds , Malik Fleming returns for no gain to the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1770% → 80%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
69.7%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to King, Kerry, PENALTY COASTALCAR pass interference (Atkinson, Chase) 16 yards to the COASTALCAR48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
71.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
71.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
71.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+12
71.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
71.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Taji Hudson for 15 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.6%
Kamarro Edmonds run for no gain to the CCaro 1Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 1:0522% → 21%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.8%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 8 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
76.8%
Jarrett Guest run for 3 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.2%
Jarrett Guest pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
77.7%
Jarrett Guest run for 9 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
76.3%
Jarrett Guest run for 3 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
76.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jeremy Lewis) to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
75.5%
Jarrett Guest run for 5 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
74.3%
Jarrett Guest pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-12
75.4%
Jarrett Guest sacked by Teylor Jackson for a loss of 12 yards to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 17
OPP 44
-5
78.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
78.6%
Mack West punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2279% → 78%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
78.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
78.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+12
77.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 12 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12Uncategorized
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
78.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 6 yds to the CCaro 27 Braydon Bennett fumbled, forced by Gerard Stringer, recovered by ECaro Jireh WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:5981% → 91%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
80.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 10 yds to the CCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
81.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+14
81.9%
C.J. Johnson pass complete to Holton Ahlers for 14 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
81.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 4Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the CCaro 2Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:5911% → 21%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
89.2%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+27
89.0%
Reese White run for 27 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
78.8%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Tyler Roberts for 47 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2083% → 82%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
83.1%
Kamarro Edmonds run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 36Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
82.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Kerry KingSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+9
81.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
81.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:1619% → 22%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
81.1%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 24 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
79.4%
CJ Beasley run for 5 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
79.1%
Jarrett Guest run for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+15
80.1%
Jarrett Guest run for no gain to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
78.2%
Jarrett Guest sacked by Gerard Stringer for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 39 Jarrett Guest fumbled, forced by Gerard Stringer, recovered by ECaro Gerard Stringer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2984% → 94%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
84.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+37
84.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 37 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
85.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+15
85.3%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, Jaylen, PENALTY COASTALCAR pass interference (Proche, Jacob) 15 yards to the COASTALCAR3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
85.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 5Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
84.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Kamarro Edmonds for 4 yds to the CCaro 1Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:237% → 6%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
93.4%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the CCaro 10Similar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 19
OWN 10
-5
93.5%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Willie Lampkin) to the CCaro 5Similar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 24
OWN 5
+2
93.7%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the CCaro 7Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 22
OWN 7
+2
94.0%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCaro 9Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 20
OWN 9
0
94.2%
Jarrett Guest pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 20
OWN 9
0
94.2%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the CCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:0895% → 99%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
95.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Savage for 3 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
95.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
95.2%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete, PENALTY COASTALCAR offside 5 yards to the COASTALCAR30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
95.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the CCaro 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+15
95.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
95.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the CCaro 8Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-7
96.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the CCaro 5 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 15Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
98.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:312% → 1%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.5%
Reese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 24Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
98.6%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Reese White for 15 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
98.6%
Reese White run for 7 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+34
98.6%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 34 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
98.5%
Jarrett Guest sacked by Shaundre Mims for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+1
98.6%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 18
OPP 28
+5
98.8%
Jarrett Guest run for 5 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 13
OPP 23
0
98.8%
Jarrett Guest pass incomplete to Tyler RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
98.9%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+4
98.9%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, C.J., PENALTY COASTALCAR pass interference (Shelton, Mason) 4 yards to the EASTCRLINA25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+12
98.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Jameson Tucker blocked by Jameson Tucker Jameson Tucker return for 12 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:591% → 6%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.1%
CJ Beasley run for 4 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
99.1%
Bryce Archie pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+6
99.2%
Bryce Archie run for 6 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Archie Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:4397% → 100%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the CCaro 47Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
97.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+36
97.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 36 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
97.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 8Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
98.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the CCaro 1Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 1 yd for a TD (Holton Ahlers pass to Keaton Mitchell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
99.4%
Max Balthazar run for 4 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+2
99.4%
Logan Adkins run for 2 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+9
99.4%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Dami'on Thompson for 9 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.4%
Max Balthazar run for 8 yds to the CCaro 31 Max Balthazar fumbled, recovered by ECaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25Uncategorized
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:08100% → 100%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
99.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:46
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Tyler Roberts for 47 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q3 11:13
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+9
TD · Q3 2:36
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com