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GASO

Georgia Southern 21 at Buffalo 23

BUF
2022 · Camellia Bowl · Dec 27, 2022 · Cramton Bowl
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.5BUF 43.6%Alex Raynor 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q2 5:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:42 · Alex Raynor 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−9.8Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:46: Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +10.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:45: Tajay Ahmed run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +11.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:34: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Joshua Thompson for 79 yds for a TD (Kyle Vantrease pass to Jjay Mcafee for Two-Point Conversion) — GASO win probability +22.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:53: Alex McNulty 24 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +4.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:38: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +29.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:08GASO 4th & 9 at BUF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:34BUF 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:19GASO 4th & 8 at BUF 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:10BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:50GASO 4th & 6 at BUF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:42GASO 4th & 4 at BUF 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:48BUF 4th & 9 at GASO 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:53BUF 4th & 6 at GASO 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:24GASO 4th & 10 at BUF 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:33BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:38BUF 4th & 2 at GASO 2, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−14.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:54GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 39, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q2 7:46BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:45BUF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:34GASO Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:38GASO Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:4766% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Evan Lester for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
34.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 13 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
34.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 11 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jjay McafeeSimilar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
34.5%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-5
34.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+4
35.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
35.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chandler Baker at the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:1135% → 37%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
35.4%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+3
35.6%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
35.7%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
36.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 7 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
36.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
36.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+15
36.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 15 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
37.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
37.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 8
50
0
37.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 8
50
0
37.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2763% → 62%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
37.2%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
37.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
37.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
38.0%
Anthony Beck II punt for 35 yds , Chandler Baker returns for no gain to the Buff 44 Chandler Baker fumbled, recovered by BuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4139% → 38%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
38.5%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+2
38.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-7
38.5%
Cole Snyder sacked by Jalen Jackson and Da'Shawn Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 16
OWN 38
+23
38.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 40 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 23 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4162% → 62%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
37.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
37.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 3 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
37.6%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-5
37.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+2
37.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
38.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chandler Baker at the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4539% → 39%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
39.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 11 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
39.4%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
39.6%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-2
39.4%
Mark Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+2
39.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 37 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1161% → 62%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
38.9%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
39.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+15
39.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ezrah Archie for 15 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
38.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 26 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
37.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 22 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
37.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
37.5%
Jjay Mcafee run for 3 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
38.2%
Tyler Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
37.6%
Alex Raynor 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:2938% → 50%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
38.3%
Mark Scott run for 3 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
38.3%
Mark Scott run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+5
37.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 5 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
38.8%
Tajay Ahmed run for 11 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
39.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+16
38.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 16 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
41.0%
Cole Snyder sacked by Marques Watson-Trent and Isaac Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
40.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+13
39.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
49.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 1:5352% → 56%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
47.6%
OJ Arnold run for 29 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
45.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 19 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
44.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ezrah Archie for 17 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
43.6%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
45.2%
OJ Arnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
43.6%
Alex Raynor 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3047% → 65%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Tajay Ahmed for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.6%
Tajay Ahmed run for no gain to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
47.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Tajay Ahmed for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
48.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+36
50.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 36 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
51.6%
Tajay Ahmed run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
52.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+7
51.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 7 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.3%
Tajay Ahmed run for no gain to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.6%
Tajay Ahmed run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:3938% → 38%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ezrah Archie for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
62.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 9 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
60.1%
AJ Brown run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
62.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to AJ Brown for 7 yds to the Buff 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
65.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 35 yds Quian Williams fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Anthony WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
42.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Joshua Thompson for 79 yds for a TD (Kyle Vantrease pass to Jjay Mcafee for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 4:3247% → 55%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
48.9%
Tajay Ahmed run for 8 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
50.0%
Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
50.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
50.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+11
47.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
50.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 9 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
52.0%
Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
52.4%
Tajay Ahmed run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+3
52.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
52.8%
Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
53.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
51.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
55.1%
Alex McNulty 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
53.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for a loss of 7 yards Khaleb Hood fumbled, recovered by Buff Jalen McNairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3459% → 64%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
59.2%
Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+4
59.5%
Tajay Ahmed run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+9
58.7%
Cole Snyder run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
60.6%
Tajay Ahmed run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
64.0%
Alex McNulty 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:2040% → 38%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
60.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.9%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
59.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 9 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
59.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
57.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
57.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
57.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
59.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
62.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:4366% → 70%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
65.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
64.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
66.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+6
68.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 6 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
68.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+13
69.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-5
70.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
69.7%
Anthony Venneri punt for 61 yds, downed at the GeoSo 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:5136% → 35%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
64.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
65.0%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+24
66.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 9 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen McNair) to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
63.7%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
61.1%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
61.2%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
63.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-13
64.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Dylan Powell return for 13 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 5:1776% → 85%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
76.4%
Tajay Ahmed run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
77.0%
Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+8
76.2%
Tajay Ahmed run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
79.5%
Tajay Ahmed run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+3
81.9%
Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
82.1%
Tajay Ahmed run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.3%
Tajay Ahmed run for no gain to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.0%
Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
84.1%
Tajay Ahmed run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
85.0%
Alex McNulty 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 4:3214% → 43%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
85.8%
OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+1
86.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to OJ Arnold for 1 yd to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+5
87.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the GeoSo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
87.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to OJ Arnold for 5 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
86.2%
OJ Arnold run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
86.0%
Tyler Bride run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
86.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
88.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+42
90.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 42 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
86.0%
Dalen Cobb pass complete to Kyle Vantrease for 3 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
86.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 3 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+5
87.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 5 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
86.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
57.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22Uncategorized
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:5274% → 92%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.0%
Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
76.9%
Tajay Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
75.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 9 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
79.6%
Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
83.5%
Tajay Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
84.4%
Tajay Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
92.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:38
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-29.5
TD · Q3 14:34
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Joshua Thompson for 79 yds for a TD (Kyle Vantrease pass to Jjay Mcafee for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.8
TD · Q2 0:45
Tajay Ahmed run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com