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SMU

SMU 23 at BYU 24

BYU
2022 · New Mexico Bowl · Dec 17, 2022 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:22 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 65 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 14 yds to the SMU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+0.9Pregame prior−5.3Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:17: Ben Bywater 76 Yd Interception Return (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +16.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:21: Christopher Brooks 22 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +12.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:39: Tyler Lavine 3 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +16.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:08: Jordan Kerley 12 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Two-Point Rush Attempt Failed) — SMU win probability +20.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:08: Timeout BYU, clock 00:08 — SMU win probability +8.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:01SMU 4th & 3 at BYU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:09BYU 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:14BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:48BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:45SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:34BYU 4th & 4 at SMU 14, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−6.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:42SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.8%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:22SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:22BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:13SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:04SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:24BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:58SMU 4th & 2 at BYU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−2.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−10.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:01BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:51SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 6:09BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:16SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:17BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:21BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:39SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:08SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.9 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.3%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 2:5961% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
39.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
39.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
39.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 2 yds to the SMU 39, BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
39.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 8 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
39.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
39.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 10 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
39.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
39.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 1 yd to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
39.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
39.6%
Collin Rogers 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:4540% → 44%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+30
39.7%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 15 yds to the BYU 42, SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
40.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
40.3%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass complete to Chase Roberts for 6 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
40.6%
Chase Roberts sacked by Shanon Reid for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+12
40.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 12 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+13
40.9%
Roberts, Chase pass incomplete to Roberts, Chase, PENALTY SMU pass interference 13 yards to the SMU16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
41.2%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 8 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
41.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
41.5%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 8 Christopher Brooks fumbled, recovered by BYU Sol-Jay Maiava-PetersSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
41.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
41.9%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 4 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.6%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters 1 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5356% → 60%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
43.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
44.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for 9 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
44.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+19
44.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 19 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
43.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
43.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 9 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
43.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 11 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
43.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
43.5%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
40.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. 9 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 4:2841% → 41%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
40.9%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
40.8%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 4 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
40.7%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 2 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.8%
Parker Kingston run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
42.0%
Hinckley Ropati run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
41.5%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+16
41.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 61 yds, Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 16 yds to the SMU 16, BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0359% → 57%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
41.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 10 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
40.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
40.5%
Mordecai, Tanner pass incomplete to Kerley, Jordan, PENALTY BYU offside 5 yards to the SMU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-11
40.3%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by John Nelson for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+1
42.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
43.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 7:1142% → 49%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
41.8%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass complete to Isaac Rex for 27 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.0%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
43.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+6
43.8%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 6 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
44.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
43.9%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+6
43.6%
Hinckley Ropati run for 6 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
45.0%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
45.0%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+12
42.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 12 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
45.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
45.5%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
44.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
49.1%
Jake Oldroyd 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:1256% → 54%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.2%
Camar Wheaton run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
45.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
44.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
43.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+48
45.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 16 BYU Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (8 Yards) to the BYU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:4349% → 49%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
48.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+8
49.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3849% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
47.7%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 5 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
48.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 65 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 14 yds to the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0954% → 51%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
45.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
46.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Camar Wheaton for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
47.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
49.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:5252% → 54%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
51.7%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 17 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
53.6%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters pass intercepted Shanon Reid return for 6 yds to the SMU 34 Shanon Reid fumbled, recovered by SMU Shanon ReidSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12INT TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:0454% → 41%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
45.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
45.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 14 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
43.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
43.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+7
44.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
43.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 5 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+8
42.1%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
42.1%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-76
59.0%
Ben Bywater 76 Yd Interception Return (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1335% → 32%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
64.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
66.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+53
67.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 28 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 5:4370% → 91%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
70.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 9 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+11
71.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 11 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
73.2%
Hinckley Ropati run for 20 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
74.6%
Hinckley Ropati run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
75.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
74.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
76.4%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
78.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+22
90.9%
Christopher Brooks 22 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4214% → 30%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
84.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
85.0%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
86.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+35
87.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 35 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
85.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
85.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
85.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 5 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
85.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+4
87.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.3%
Tyler Lavine 3 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1582% → 82%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.0%
Chase Roberts run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
82.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
82.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 41 yds · 5:2621% → 18%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
79.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 9 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
77.8%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
78.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Carter Campbell for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
78.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
77.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+2
75.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
76.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
78.7%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+6
78.9%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
77.4%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-1
77.4%
Camar Wheaton run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
79.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 2
OPP 24
-15
81.8%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Alden Tofa for a loss of 15 yards to the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5791% → 94%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
90.6%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
92.3%
Hinckley Ropati run for no gain to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+5
92.5%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 5 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
93.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds, downed at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
16 plays · 88 yds · 2:5311% → 35%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
89.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 8 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
88.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
89.4%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+2
91.4%
Austin Upshaw run for 2 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
90.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 5 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
89.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
89.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+6
87.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 6 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
88.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
87.5%
Austin Upshaw run for no gain to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+14
88.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 14 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
85.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 22 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
65.1%
Jordan Kerley 12 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Two-Point Rush Attempt Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
93.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:08
Jordan Kerley 12 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Two-Point Rush Attempt Failed)
-20.5
TD · Q3 8:17
Ben Bywater 76 Yd Interception Return (Jake Oldroyd Kick)
+16.9
TD · Q4 12:39
Tyler Lavine 3 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com