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CIN

Cincinnati 7 at Louisville 24

LOU
2022 · Wasabi Fenway Bowl · Dec 17, 2022 · Fenway Park
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:04 · TEAM punt for 14 yds, downed at the Lvile 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+12.3Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:21: Jawhar Jordan run for 49 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:58: Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 20 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +7.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:52: Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:42: Jawhar Jordan run for 41 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8 (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:34: Braden Smith pass incomplete to Maurice Turner — LOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:04LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15CIN 4th & 16 at LOU 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:51LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:14CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52CIN 4th & 1 at LOU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−2.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:29CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:38LOU 4th & 6 at CIN 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:10CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−3.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:49LOU 4th & 13 at CIN 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:48CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:19CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:23CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:35LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.5%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:56CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:21LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:58CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:52LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5262% → 62%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.4%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
62.4%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Jaelin CarterSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
62.4%
TEAM punt for 14 yds, downed at the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:3538% → 38%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
62.3%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
62.1%
Evan Prater run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
62.1%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-16
62.0%
Evan Prater sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 16 yards to the Lvile 46 Evan Prater fumbled, forced by Ashton Gillotte, recovered by CincySimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 26
OPP 46
+10
62.3%
Evan Prater pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
62.4%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Charles McClellandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1563% → 62%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
62.5%
Brock Domann run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
62.4%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Jaelin CarterSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
62.1%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
62.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 56 yds, downed at the Cincy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 5:0638% → 39%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
62.3%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
62.2%
Evan Prater pass complete to Blue Smith for 9 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
62.2%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
61.9%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
61.9%
Evan Prater run for 12 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
61.7%
Evan Prater pass complete to Payten Singletary for 11 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
61.2%
Ethan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+6
61.5%
Ethan Wright run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+1
61.0%
Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
61.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:0962% → 63%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
61.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+6
61.6%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 6 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+21
61.2%
Brock Domann run for 6 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
62.2%
Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
62.5%
Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-2
62.5%
Brock Domann run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 40 Brock Domann fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan MullaneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -11 yds · 1:0140% → 39%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
59.7%
Evan Prater sacked by Momo Sanogo for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+2
60.4%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 17
OPP 47
-4
60.7%
Evan Prater sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 49 Evan Prater fumbled, forced by Monty Montgomery, recovered by Lvile Ashton Gillotte , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
67.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 49 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1334% → 42%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
66.3%
Ethan Wright run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
65.9%
Evan Prater run for 2 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+11
66.3%
Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 11 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
65.5%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 6
50
+5
65.3%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
65.4%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
66.5%
Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
65.7%
Evan Prater pass complete to Blue Smith for 23 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
57.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 20 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:4962% → 72%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
61.9%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
61.8%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+18
61.6%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 18 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
63.9%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Cincy 45, lateral to Braden Smith for 6 yards to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+8
64.0%
Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
64.4%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
64.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+8
62.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+15
63.5%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 15 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
64.5%
Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
72.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0631% → 29%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
69.3%
Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-5
68.3%
Evan Prater sacked by Ramon Puryear and Jared Dawson for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-1
70.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Charles McClelland for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
71.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds, downed at the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4071% → 82%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
71.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 12 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
72.3%
Maurice Turner run for 11 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
73.2%
Brock Domann run for 5 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
73.5%
Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
73.7%
Brock Domann sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+5
72.7%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+41
81.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 41 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8 (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-11
80.8%
Evan Prater sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5919% → 20%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
80.7%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
80.3%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
80.5%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48 Brady Lichtenberg fumbled, forced by M.J. Griffin, recovered by Lvile Yasir AbdullahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5684% → 83%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.0%
Braden Smith pass incomplete to Maurice TurnerSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
84.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
83.8%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+31
83.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wilson Huber at the Cincy 12 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0517% → 15%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
82.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+13
83.4%
Ethan Wright run for 13 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
82.8%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
83.0%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Blue SmithSimilar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-11
84.0%
Evan Prater sacked by YaYa Diaby and Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 20
OWN 22
0
84.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
15 plays · 38 yds · 6:1486% → 92%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
85.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
86.2%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+7
85.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
86.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
87.4%
Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.4%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
88.4%
Maurice Turner run for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
88.6%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-1
88.8%
Maurice Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+7
88.5%
Maurice Turner run for 7 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
89.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Michael Gonzalez) to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+2
89.2%
Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+1
89.3%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 12
OPP 28
-1
89.7%
Maurice Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+48
92.4%
James Turner 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:508% → 7%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.0%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
92.1%
Ethan Wright run for 18 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
91.9%
Evan Prater run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-8
92.2%
Will Pauling run for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
93.1%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 16
OWN 47
+5
93.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:2694% → 95%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
93.7%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
94.0%
Maurice Turner run for 6 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+8
94.2%
Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
94.7%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+17
94.8%
Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 17 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-20
95.4%
Braden Smith pass intercepted Armorion Smith return for 20 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:266% → 5%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
94.4%
Ethan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
94.5%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
94.8%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+5
95.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:1996% → 96%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.6%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+48
95.7%
Maurice Turner run for 48 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
96.4%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-2
96.3%
Maurice Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-19
96.3%
Brock Domann pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for 19 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:274% → 4%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
96.0%
Ethan Wright run for 1 yd to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-8
96.2%
Evan Prater sacked by YaYa Diaby for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
96.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FUMBLE
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:2897% → 98%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
96.6%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
96.7%
Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
96.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 5 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+3
96.8%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
97.3%
Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 24 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
97.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+11
97.7%
Brock Domann pass complete to Chris Bell for 11 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.7%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
97.8%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaheim Thomas) to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.0%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4 Maurice Turner fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan MullaneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
97.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+3
98.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+1
98.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 2
OWN 12
-5
98.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 7Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
98.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24Uncategorized
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2199% → 99%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
98.6%
Maurice Turner run for 10 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
98.7%
Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
99.0%
Grant Goodman run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.0%
Jeremiah Caldwell run for no gain to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.0%
Grant Goodman run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:42
Jawhar Jordan run for 41 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8 (James Turner KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 10:58
Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 20 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q2 5:52
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com