2022 · Wasabi Fenway Bowl · Dec 17, 2022 · Fenway Park
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreCIN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · Grant Goodman run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:21: Jawhar Jordan run for 49 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:58: Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 20 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +7.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:52: Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: Jawhar Jordan run for 41 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8 (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 13:34: Braden Smith pass incomplete to Maurice Turner — LOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 14:04LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q1 11:15CIN 4th & 16 at LOU 36, tiedClose callWent for it · 41.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.5%−0.116% to convertField goal41.6%42% to makePunt41.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:51LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q1 4:14CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 49, tiedClose callPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it42.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:52CIN 4th & 1 at LOU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.4%70% to convertField goal34.2%−2.325% to makePunt34.9%−1.5average punt
- Q2 3:29CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it29.9%−1.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q3 12:38LOU 4th & 6 at CIN 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it82.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.4%average punt
- Q3 10:10CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it14.4%−3.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q3 3:49LOU 4th & 13 at CIN 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snapGo for it86.9%−1.620% to convertField goalTheir call88.5%58% to makePunt83.2%−5.3average punt
- Q3 1:48CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 47, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it6.1%−1.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q4 13:19CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q4 9:23CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−1.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q4 7:35LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 46, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:56CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 7, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 0:21LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.8%97% to makeGo for two62.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:58CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.5%97% to makeGo for two40.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:52LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.4%97% to makeGo for two66.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.5%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5262% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2DOWNS6 plays · 6 yds · 2:3538% → 38%
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-16
62.0%
Evan Prater sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 16 yards to the Lvile 46 Evan Prater fumbled, forced by Ashton Gillotte, recovered by CincySimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 26
OPP 46
+10
62.3%
Evan Prater pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1563% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 5:0638% → 39%
LOUDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 29 yds · 2:0962% → 63%
Q1 3:32
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+6
61.6%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 6 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+21
61.2%
Brock Domann run for 6 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
62.2%
Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
62.5%
Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-2
62.5%
Brock Domann run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 40 Brock Domann fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan MullaneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6FUMBLE3 plays · -11 yds · 1:0140% → 39%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
59.7%
Evan Prater sacked by Momo Sanogo for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 17
OPP 47
-4
60.7%
Evan Prater sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 49 Evan Prater fumbled, forced by Monty Montgomery, recovered by Lvile Ashton Gillotte , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD1 play · 49 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1334% → 42%
Q2 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+11
66.3%
Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 11 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
65.7%
Evan Prater pass complete to Blue Smith for 23 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
57.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 20 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD12 plays · 66 yds · 4:4962% → 72%
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+18
61.6%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 18 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
63.9%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Cincy 45, lateral to Braden Smith for 6 yards to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+15
63.5%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 15 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
72.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0631% → 29%
LOUDrive 11TD7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4071% → 82%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
71.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 12 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
73.7%
Brock Domann sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+5
72.7%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+41
81.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 41 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8 (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-11
80.8%
Evan Prater sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FUMBLE4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5919% → 20%
Q3 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
80.5%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48 Brady Lichtenberg fumbled, forced by M.J. Griffin, recovered by Lvile Yasir AbdullahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5684% → 83%
Q3 12:38
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+31
83.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wilson Huber at the Cincy 12 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0517% → 15%
LOUDrive 16FG15 plays · 38 yds · 6:1486% → 92%
CINDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:508% → 7%
Q3 1:48
4TH & 16
OWN 47
+5
93.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18INT6 plays · 37 yds · 2:2694% → 95%
CINDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:266% → 5%
Q4 13:19
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+5
95.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20INT5 plays · 49 yds · 2:1996% → 96%
Q4 10:54
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-19
96.3%
Brock Domann pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for 19 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:274% → 4%
LOUDrive 22FUMBLE10 plays · 58 yds · 4:2897% → 98%
Q4 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
96.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 5 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
97.3%
Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 24 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+11
97.7%
Brock Domann pass complete to Chris Bell for 11 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
97.8%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaheim Thomas) to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.0%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4 Maurice Turner fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan MullaneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q4 2:56
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
98.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24Uncategorized5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2199% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:42
Jawhar Jordan run for 41 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8 (James Turner KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 10:58
Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 20 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q2 5:52
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+7.9