Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 20 at UAB 24

UAB
2022 · HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl · Dec 16, 2022 · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1UAB 79.1%Matt Quinn 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 3:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:31 · Matt Quinn 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+23.2Home team on offense+3.0Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:44: Kevin Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +24.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:29: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +19.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:52: Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 10 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +32.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:45: Kevin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 30 — M-OH win probability +16.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:31: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +58.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5M-OH made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:38M-OH 4th & 2 at UAB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:28M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31UAB 4th & 8 at M-OH 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:23M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:24UAB 4th & 7 at M-OH 28, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:38M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:24UAB 4th & 16 at M-OH 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:00M-OH 4th & 1 at UAB 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−2.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43M-OH 4th & 1 at UAB 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:22UAB 4th & 7 at M-OH 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:50M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:16M-OH 4th & 12 at UAB 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−3.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:31UAB 4th & 1 at M-OH 12, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 9.5 ptsWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%−9.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−31.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:01M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:25M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−6.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:22UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:34M-OH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:44M-OH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:29UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:52M-OH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−2.0
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:31UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:1722% → 23%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.2%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 15 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
77.9%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
77.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 15 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
77.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
77.5%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+2
77.3%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
77.3%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5877% → 79%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+46
77.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 46 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
77.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dexter Boykin for 4 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+8
77.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.5%
A.J. Gates run for no gain to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4622% → 21%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.3%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
78.4%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
78.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:4479% → 79%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
78.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ja'Von Kimpson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
50
+3
78.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 3 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
78.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
79.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
79.1%
Dylan Hopkins run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
78.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
79.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Tejhaun PalmerSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
79.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+1
79.0%
Dylan Hopkins run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
79.1%
Matt Quinn 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5221% → 21%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.6%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
78.6%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
78.8%
Aveon Smith sacked by Nikia Eason Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 43 yds , Starling Thomas V returns for no gain to the UAB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3679% → 79%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
79.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 16 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
79.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ja'Von Kimpson) to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
79.8%
Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
79.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+5
79.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brian Ugwu) to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
79.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
80.1%
Dylan Hopkins run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
80.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
79.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 7
OPP 28
0
79.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:2221% → 19%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
79.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+11
78.6%
Aveon Smith run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.3%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
78.9%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+10
79.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 10 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
78.5%
Aveon Smith sacked by Jaylen Key for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+7
79.5%
Kevin Davis run for 7 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-6
79.4%
Aveon Smith sacked by Noah Wilder and Drew Tuazama for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
80.7%
Dom Dzioban punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:1480% → 80%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
80.1%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Matthew Trehern) to the UAB 15Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-6
80.0%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Nolan Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 9 Jacob Zeno fumbled, recovered by UAB Jacob Zeno , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+2
79.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 11Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+48
79.6%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 48 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
81.6%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
81.5%
Jacob Zeno pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-6
81.0%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 16
OPP 47
+25
79.5%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 37 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 25 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:3620% → 27%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
79.9%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
79.5%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
79.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 9 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
79.2%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
79.3%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
80.1%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
79.1%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
78.7%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+5
80.4%
Aveon Smith run for 5 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
81.5%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
72.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 33 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10INT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:2775% → 77%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
75.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Tejhaun PalmerSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
74.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 6 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 16
OWN 30
+16
75.2%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Brian Ugwu) to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
76.1%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Sidney Wells) to the UAB 30Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
76.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-45
77.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass intercepted Rowan Zolman return for 45 yds to the UAB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
72.9%
UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12DOWNS
16 plays · 37 yds · 7:3374% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.0%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UAB 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
73.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dexter Boykin for 15 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
75.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
75.4%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Fred Farrier II) to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
73.5%
Dylan Hopkins run for no gain to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+14
72.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 14 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
75.5%
UAB Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trea Shropshire) to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
76.4%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UAB 43Similar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+6
77.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
77.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
78.0%
A.J. Gates run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+3
77.6%
Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+1
76.9%
Jacob Zeno run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
75.7%
Jacob Zeno pass incomplete to Brody DaltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2529% → 27%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
71.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-4
69.4%
Aveon Smith sacked by Reynard Ellis and Michael Fairbanks II for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
71.0%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 6
OWN 42
-8
72.7%
Dom Dzioban punt for 46 yds , Starling Thomas V returns for a loss of 8 yards to the UAB 4 Starling Thomas V fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Ambe' CaldwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q3 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.1%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0056% → 79%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 6 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
58.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
56.5%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
58.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Trea ShropshireSimilar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
54.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 8 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
59.1%
Lee Witherspoon run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+12
58.9%
Lee Witherspoon run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
60.7%
Lee Witherspoon run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
60.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+12
57.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
59.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+12
59.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 12 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
59.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2929% → 72%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.5%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 7 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
68.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
69.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 15 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
66.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 10 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
65.4%
Aveon Smith run for 8 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+1
62.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
63.8%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
61.6%
Aveon Smith run for 7 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+9
61.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 9 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
61.2%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the UAB 10Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
61.0%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for no gain to the UAB 10Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
28.4%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 10 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3341% → 40%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
40.8%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
39.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UAB 28 Jermaine Brown Jr. fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Matthew SalopekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2977% → 71%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
22.7%
Kevin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
22.9%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
24.1%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+47
28.8%
Graham Nicholson 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2938% → 89%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+49
38.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 49 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
46.6%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
46.3%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
39.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+12
88.5%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20END OF GAME
16 plays · 73 yds · 1:1924% → 19%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.0%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
75.3%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
80.3%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kenny TracySimilar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
82.9%
Aveon Smith run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
78.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 6 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
81.9%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
83.8%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for no gain to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+12
89.8%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 12 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.0%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
87.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Miles Marshall for 13 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
83.0%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
81.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 13 yds to the UAB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:31
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)
+58.6
TD · Q4 6:52
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 10 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-32.6
TD · Q3 5:44
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-24.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com