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LIU

Long Island University 0 at Toledo 37

TOL
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2022 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadLIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreLIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:52 · Will Lynch punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LongIs 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+46.4Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:23: Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG GOOD — LIU win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:01: Thomas Cluckey 27 yd FG GOOD — LIU win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:22: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 69 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:02: Dequan Finn run for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:38: Timeout TOLEDO, clock 11:38 — TOL win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 10 of 12LIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:22TOL 4th & 10 at LIU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24LIU 4th & 8 at LIU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36TOL 4th & 1 at LIU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33LIU 4th & 2 at TOL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:37TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:52LIU 4th & 2 at LIU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:23TOL 4th & 10 at LIU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:01TOL 4th & 4 at LIU 9, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:48LIU 4th & 17 at LIU 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:46TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:00LIU 4th & 19 at LIU 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:55LIU 4th & 12 at LIU 10, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:40TOL 4th & 10 at LIU 40, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:24LIU 4th & 1 at LIU 11, down 20
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:42TOL 4th & 2 at LIU 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:33LIU 4th & 11 at LIU 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:34TOL 4th & 1 at LIU 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:17TOL 4th & 11 at LIU 12, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:25LIU 4th & 3 at TOL 49, down 23
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:48LIU 4th & 5 at TOL 47, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:53TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 44, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:53TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 44, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:52LIU 4th & 9 at LIU 2, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 5:22TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:02TOL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:21TOL Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:17TOL Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.4%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
99.4%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+12
99.4%
Dequan Finn run for 12 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
99.3%
Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the LongIs 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 2 yds to the LongIs 43Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+1
99.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 1 yd to the LongIs 42Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+1
99.3%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the LongIs 41Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
99.2%
(10:40) PENALTY LIU False Start (Kushi,Tedi) 1 yard from LIU03 to LIU02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+2
99.2%
Jonathan DeBique run for 2 yds to the LongIs 4Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
99.2%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Owen GlascoeSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+1
99.1%
Derek Green pass complete to Tosin Oyekanmi for 1 yd to the LongIs 5Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+11
99.1%
Will Lynch punt for 46 yds , Adam Beale returns for 11 yds to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4899% → 99%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
99.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the LongIs 46Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
99.1%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the LongIs 46Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
98.9%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the LongIs 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
98.9%
Derek Green pass complete to Tosin Oyekanmi for 11 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
98.9%
Derek Green run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
98.9%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Tosin OyekanmiSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
98.9%
Derek Green pass complete to Tosin Oyekanmi for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Brian WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
98.9%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
98.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-10
98.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.8%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zachary Rhodes at the LongIs 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.6%
Jonathan DeBique run for 3 yds to the LongIs 24Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
98.6%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Shemar PaulSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
98.7%
LONG ISLAND Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass (Davon Wells) to the LongIs 29Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Will Lynch punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LongIs 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2999% → 98%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
98.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 3 yds to the LongIs 36Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
98.6%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the LongIs 35Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
98.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 10 yds to the LongIs 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the LongIs 25Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
98.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for no gain to the LongIs 25Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
98.3%
Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 8INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:182% → 2%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.4%
PENALTY TOLEDO Offside 5 yards from LIU25 to LIU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.3%
Derek Green run for 2 yds to the LongIs 28Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
98.3%
Derek Green pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 1 yd to the LongIs 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Derek pass intercepted by Gant,Dallas at LIU38 PENALTY TOLEDO Illegal Substitution 5 yards from LIU29 to LIU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
98.1%
Shemar Paul run for 10 yds to the LongIs 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Tosin OyekanmiSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
98.1%
Derek Green pass complete to Davon Wells for 4 yds to the LongIs 48Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
97.9%
Derek Green pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:0498% → 98%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.2%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the LongIs 40Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
98.2%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the LongIs 36Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
98.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the LongIs 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.2%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the LongIs 26Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+11
98.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the LongIs 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
98.2%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the LongIs 7Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+1
98.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the LongIs 6Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-15
98.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stuart,Jacquez rush middle for 1 yard loss to the LIU07 (Regateiro,Jimmy; Barbuto,Dom) PENALTY TOLEDO Personal Foul (Ateman,Kelvin) 15 yards from LIU06 to LIU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+12
98.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 12 yds to the LongIs 9Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
97.9%
Thomas Cluckey 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
97.6%
Shemar Paul run for 1 yd to the LongIs 34Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
97.6%
Shemar Paul run for 6 yds to the LongIs 28Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
97.7%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Shemar PaulSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+47
97.6%
Will Lynch punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOLEDO 40 TOLEDO Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Holt,Deshawn) 15 yards from TOLEDO40 TOLEDO25. (Deshawn Holt) to the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0298% → 97%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
97.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:463% → 3%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
97.5%
Pat Bowen run for 3 yds to the LongIs 25Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+1
97.6%
Pat Bowen run for 1 yd to the LongIs 24Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 14
OWN 24
-5
97.7%
PENALTY LIU False Start (Desta,Yodhe) 5 yards from LIU24 to LIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 19
OWN 19
0
97.7%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Davon WellsSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
97.5%
Will Lynch punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:3897% → 98%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+69
98.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 69 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:242% → 2%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
98.2%
PENALTY LIU False Start (Desta,Yodhe) 5 yards from LIU12 to LIU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+1
98.2%
Shemar Paul run for 1 yd to the LongIs 6Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 16
OWN 6
+1
98.2%
Derek Green run for 1 yd to the LongIs 5Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 17
OWN 5
+5
98.3%
Derek Green pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 5 yds to the LongIs 10Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+11
98.0%
Will Lynch punt for 51 yds , Adam Beale returns for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:5398% → 99%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
50
+9
98.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 9 yds to the LongIs 41Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
98.2%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the LongIs 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
98.2%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the LongIs 28Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+5
98.2%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the LongIs 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
98.2%
Peny Boone run for 16 yds to the LongIs 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.0%
Jonathan DeBique run for 4 yds to the LongIs 39Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
99.0%
Jonathan DeBique run for 2 yds to the LongIs 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · -12 yds · 3:061% → 1%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Jonathan DeBique run for 3 yds to the LongIs 28Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.0%
Derek Green pass complete to Davon Wells for 6 yds to the LongIs 34Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.0%
Derek Green run for 1 yd to the LongIs 35 Derek Green fumbled, forced by Dallas Gant, recovered by LongIs Tosin Oyekanmi for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.1%
Jonathan DeBique run for 4 yds to the LongIs 31Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-10
99.1%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun DeBique,Jonathan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LIU35 (Gant,Dallas) PENALTY LIU Holding (Mahoney,Liam) 10 yards from LIU31 to LIU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 24
OWN 21
+2
99.0%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Michael Love for 2 yds to the LongIs 23Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 22
OWN 23
-5
99.0%
PENALTY LIU False Start (Desta,Yodhe) 5 yards from LIU23 to LIU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 27
OWN 18
-5
99.0%
Luca Stanzani sacked by Andre Fuller for a loss of 5 yards to the LongIs 13Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 32
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Will Lynch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4899% → 99%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.3%
Dequan Finn run for 14 yds to the LongIs 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
99.3%
Dequan Finn sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 6 yards to the LongIs 46Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 16
OPP 46
0
99.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+6
99.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the LongIs 40Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
99.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
99.0%
Jonathan DeBique run for 2 yds to the LongIs 4Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
99.0%
Jonathan DeBique run for 2 yds to the LongIs 6Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+5
99.0%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 5 yds to the LongIs 11Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+8
99.0%
Will Lynch punt for 39 yds , Adam Beale returns for 8 yds to the LongIs 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20INT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5299% → 99%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the LongIs 41Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+7
99.3%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the LongIs 34Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+11
99.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 11 yds to the LongIs 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
99.3%
PENALTY TOLEDO False Start 5 yards from LIU23 to LIU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+7
99.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the LongIs 21Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+10
99.3%
LONG ISLAND Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jaiden Roe) to the LongIs 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.3%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.0%
PENALTY LIU False Start (Batten,Elias) 5 yards from LIU20 to LIU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
99.0%
Luca Stanzani pass incomplete to Tosin OyekanmiSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+2
99.0%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 2 yds to the LongIs 17Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+4
99.0%
(03:39) Shotgun Stanzani,Luca pass incomplete short right to Love,Michael broken up by Mitchell,Quinyon PENALTY TOLEDO Pass Interference (Gant,Dallas) 4 yards from LIU17 to LIU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.0%
Pat Bowen run for 2 yds to the LongIs 23Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
99.0%
Pat Bowen run for 3 yds to the LongIs 26Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-6
99.1%
Luca Stanzani sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LongIs 20Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Will Lynch punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LongIs 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 3 yds to the LongIs 45Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
99.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the LongIs 42Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+8
99.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 8 yds to the LongIs 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.6%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the LongIs 27Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
99.6%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the LongIs 25Similar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
99.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the LongIs 22 for a 1ST down LONG ISLAND Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Rudy Silvera) to the LongIs 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.7%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the LongIs 9Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
99.7%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short middle to Turner,Jamal for 9 yards to the LIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 13:59 PENALTY TOLEDO Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Blankumsee,DeMeer) 5 yards from LIU09 to LIU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+2
99.7%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the LongIs 12Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Micah KellySimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+30
99.7%
Thomas Cluckey 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:520% → 1%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 4 yds to the LongIs 29Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.5%
Jonathan DeBique run for 3 yds to the LongIs 32Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
99.5%
Jonathan DeBique run for 12 yds to the LongIs 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Luca Stanzani pass incomplete to Owen GlascoeSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.5%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 7 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Luca Stanzani pass incomplete to Michael LoveSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+4
99.5%
Will Lynch punt for 34 yds , Adam Beale returns for 4 yds to the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+9
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 9 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+31
99.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 31 yds to the LongIs 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
100.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 40 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for no gain to the LongIs 25Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for 12 yds to the LongIs 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
100.0%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Davon Wells for 11 yds to the LongIs 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Justin Weller for 5 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+14
100.0%
Luca Stanzani run for 14 yds to the LongIs 39Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+14
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for 14 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
100.0%
Will Lynch punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
100.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Ezechiel Tieide for 6 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
100.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Willie Shaw III for 8 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Ezechiel Tieide for no gain to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Tucker Gleason run for no gain to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 53 ydsSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for 2 yds to the LongIs 3Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for 1 yd to the LongIs 4Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+1
100.0%
Luca Stanzani run for 1 yd to the LongIs 2Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
100.0%
Will Lynch punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Junior Vandeross III at the LongIs 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
100.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the LongIs 29Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
100.0%
Jordan Lowe run for 29 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for 6 yds to the LongIs 31Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for 1 yd to the LongIs 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Pat Bowen run for 2 yds to the LongIs 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:02
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 5:22
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 69 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+0.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:38
Timeout TOLEDO, clock 11:38
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com