Try the model
PUR

Purdue 22 at Michigan 43

MICH
2022 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:55 · Payne Durham run for 4 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+31.2Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:05: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +4.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:25: Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +7.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:32: Donovan Edwards run for 27 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +6.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:06: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 17 yds for a TD (J.J. McCarthy pass to Luke Schoonmaker for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +7.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:07: Mitchell Fineran 32 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +3.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:59PUR 4th & 20 at PUR 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:11MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:55PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:39PUR 4th & 11 at MICH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:30MICH 4th & 1 at PUR 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−1.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:23PUR 4th & 5 at MICH 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:51MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:20PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:38MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 10, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:37PUR 4th & 26 at MICH 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:37PUR 4th & 6 at MICH 10, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:07MICH 4th & 3 at PUR 48, up 9
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:07PUR 4th & 8 at MICH 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:30MICH 4th & 2 at PUR 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:11MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:13PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:05MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:25MICH Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:32MICH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:06MICH Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:22MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:5612% → 13%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
87.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 13Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+3
87.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 3 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 16
-7
87.4%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 9Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 20
OWN 9
+1
87.3%
Jack Ansell punt for 47 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 1 yd to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:4487% → 87%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.2%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
87.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+9
86.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 9 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
86.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+16
86.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 16 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
87.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 25 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 4:4713% → 17%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
87.0%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the Prdue 9Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+13
87.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 13 yds to the Prdue 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
86.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 5 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+9
86.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 9 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
86.6%
Aidan O'Connell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 33 Aidan O'Connell fumbled, recovered by Prdue Aidan O'Connell Aidan O'Connell run for 1 yd to the Prdue 33Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+15
86.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 15 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
86.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 14 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
86.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 17 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
85.7%
Tyrone Tracy run for 20 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.4%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5984% → 83%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
84.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the Mich 26 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
84.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
83.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
83.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Prdue 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:2617% → 20%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
83.4%
Charlie Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 39Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
83.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 5 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
82.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie Jones, broken up by DJ TurnerSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+4
83.1%
Payne Durham run for 4 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
82.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 25 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
81.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+8
81.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
81.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
81.0%
Aidan O'Connell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 17 Aidan O'Connell fumbled, recovered by Prdue Aidan O'Connell Aidan O'Connell run for no gain to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+1
81.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 1 yd to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
80.5%
Mitchell Fineran 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2581% → 83%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
81.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 9 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
81.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+20
81.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 20 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
81.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
81.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
80.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+5
79.1%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Prdue 25Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
79.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
80.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Prdue 22Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+9
80.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
79.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
79.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Prdue 7Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
83.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:3718% → 23%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
81.0%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
80.8%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
80.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 8 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
79.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
79.4%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
78.9%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 43Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+4
80.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 4 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+20
79.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 20 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
77.4%
TJ Sheffield run for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
76.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
77.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Andrew Sowinski, broken up by DJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
77.3%
Mitchell Fineran 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2979% → 78%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
79.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
78.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
78.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9END OF HALF
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:5022% → 24%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
78.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 4 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+20
77.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 20 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
75.3%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+3
77.2%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+13
77.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for 13 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-13
75.6%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Michael Barrett for a loss of 13 yards to the MICHIGAN 45 PURDUE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Aidan O'Connell) to the Prdue 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3079% → 88%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
78.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 60 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
81.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 4 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
81.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+6
80.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the Prdue 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5015% → 14%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.8%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
85.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
86.2%
Jack Ansell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:3886% → 92%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+40
86.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 40 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
92.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 27 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13INT
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:019% → 11%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
91.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 32 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
89.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 25 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
89.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted Will Johnson return for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4792% → 92%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
92.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+4
92.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
92.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the Mich 10Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
92.0%
Brad Robbins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:589% → 9%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
90.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the Prdue 42Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+15
91.4%
O'Connell, Aidan pass incomplete to Jones, Charlie, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGAN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
90.8%
Tyrone Tracy run for 5 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
90.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+26
90.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Paul Piferi for 26 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
90.0%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 11Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
90.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
91.1%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Taylor Upshaw and Eyabi Okie for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 11Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
-15
92.0%
PURDUE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 26
+43
90.6%
Mitchell Fineran 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2591% → 92%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
91.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
91.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 10 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass intercepted Jamari Brown return for no gain to the Prdue 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 3:5310% → 12%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
90.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
89.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+7
90.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 7 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Dylan Downing run for no gain to the Prdue 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 6 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+24
89.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Andrew Sowinski for 24 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Devin MockobeeSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
88.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+21
90.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Mershawn Rice for 21 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
88.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
88.8%
Charlie Jones run for 2 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
89.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
87.7%
Mitchell Fineran 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1389% → 88%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
88.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 16 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
89.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
89.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+4
88.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
88.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Prdue 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0511% → 11%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
89.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted Will Johnson return for no gain to the Prdue 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4890% → 97%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
90.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
90.3%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+17
97.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 17 yds for a TD (J.J. McCarthy pass to Luke Schoonmaker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:533% → 6%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.0%
Devin Mockobee run for 10 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
96.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 9 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
96.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
96.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
96.6%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+6
97.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 6 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
96.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Mershawn RiceSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+21
97.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 21 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
96.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
97.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
97.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen, broken up by Will JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
94.5%
Mitchell Fineran 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:3897% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
97.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
97.5%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+4
98.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+18
98.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 18 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
98.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the Prdue 3Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:540% → 1%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Charlie Jones for 18 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
99.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 11 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.5%
O'Connell, Aidan pass complete to Tracy, Tyrone for 1 yard to the MICHIGAN45, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside 5 yards to the MICHIGAN41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+4
99.5%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+1
99.5%
Dylan Downing run for 1 yd to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:25
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q4 9:06
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 17 yds for a TD (J.J. McCarthy pass to Luke Schoonmaker for Two-Point Conversion)
+7
TD · Q3 10:32
Donovan Edwards run for 27 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com