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KSU

Kansas State 31 at TCU 28

TCU
2022 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2022 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:05 · Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 56Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:19: RJ Garcia II 25 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick) — KSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:09: Kendre Miller 6 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +18.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 11:27: Deuce Vaughn 44 Yd Run (Ty Zentner Kick) — KSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:51: Max Duggan 8 Yd Run (Max Duggan Pass to Jared Wiley for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +53.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Ty Zentner 31 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11KSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:57KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41TCU 4th & 3 at KSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:30TCU 4th & 7 at KSU 37, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:15KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:37TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:28KSU 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:05TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:45TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:00KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−2.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:09KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:29TCU 4th & 3 at KSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.0
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:54TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:20TCU 4th & 16 at TCU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:05KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−6.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−5.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:26KSU 4th & 16 at TCU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−2.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:53TCU 4th & 10 at KSU 46, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    14.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:34TCU 4th & 4 at KSU 24, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%−1.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−6.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:47KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:24TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%−3.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:38KSU 4th & 10 at TCU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:00TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:15KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:16KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:19KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:09TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:27KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:51TCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.4%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:5548% → 48%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
51.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-2
51.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+8
52.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for no gain to the KanSt 38Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
52.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
52.1%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+7
52.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 56 yds , Taye Barber returns for 7 yds to the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 6:5752% → 59%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
52.3%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+53
52.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 53 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
53.0%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
53.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
53.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+5
53.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for 5 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
53.7%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
53.7%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+11
53.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 11 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
54.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 3 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
54.1%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
53.9%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Taye Barber 1 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5943% → 42%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
56.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
56.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
57.4%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade Warner, broken up by Josh NewtonSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
57.9%
Ty Zentner punt for 39 yds, downed at the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2658% → 58%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
58.2%
Kendre Miller run for 21 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
58.8%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
59.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
58.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson, broken up by Ekow Boye-DoeSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+55
57.9%
Griffin Kell 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1543% → 49%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
56.8%
Malik Knowles run for 8 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+40
56.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 40 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
55.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
55.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+6
56.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
51.5%
Ben Sinnott 6 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:3854% → 52%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.9%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
53.8%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
53.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 34
-5
52.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Gunnar Henderson) to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+11
52.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 49 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 11 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0948% → 47%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
52.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
51.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
51.0%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
51.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 7
50
0
51.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik Knowles, broken up by Josh NewtonSimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 7
50
0
52.6%
Ty Zentner punt for 42 yds, downed at the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2354% → 53%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
53.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+1
53.9%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
53.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
52.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:4949% → 58%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+40
51.2%
Malik Knowles run for 40 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
49.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 18 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.0%
Will Howard 1 Yd Run (Ty Zentner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2444% → 43%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
44.0%
Kendre Miller run for 14 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
43.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+4
43.0%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
42.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:4556% → 61%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
43.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
41.4%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+6
41.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 6 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
40.5%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
40.0%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+8
40.0%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
38.9%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-3
38.4%
Will Howard sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
38.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 6 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-1
39.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+31
41.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 31 yds Quentin Johnston fumbled, forced by Julius Brents, recovered by KanSt Austin MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4060% → 61%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
39.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
37.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
37.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
39.0%
Ty Zentner punt for 45 yds , Taye Barber returns for no gain to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 1:4039% → 46%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.4%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+21
39.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 21 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
41.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 9 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+16
42.3%
Emari Demercado run for 16 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
45.2%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
45.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
43.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
46.1%
Griffin Kell 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0756% → 57%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
44.4%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-13
43.5%
Will Howard sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 13 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0147% → 45%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
47.3%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
47.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
45.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre Miller, broken up by Austin MooreSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
45.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:3556% → 68%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
44.1%
Phillip Brooks run for 4 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
43.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 7 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
43.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 26 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
30.9%
RJ Garcia II 25 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)Similar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
32.2%
TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bud Clark) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5533% → 28%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
33.0%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
33.2%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-9
31.8%
Max Duggan sacked by Felix Anudike-Uzomah for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 16
OWN 27
+3
28.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 46 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 3 yds to the KanSt 30 Phillip Brooks fumbled, recovered by TCU Trent BattleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:1134% → 53%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
34.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 21 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
33.8%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
52.5%
Kendre Miller 6 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
14 plays · 27 yds · 6:3755% → 60%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
44.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 6 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
43.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben Sinnott, broken up by Tre'Vius Hodges-TomlinsonSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
43.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
41.4%
Will Howard run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
39.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
39.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
39.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
41.6%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
38.5%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
36.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-12
35.5%
Will Howard sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 12 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
39.7%
Ty Zentner punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:3141% → 46%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+51
41.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 51 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
48.2%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
48.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson, broken up by Jacob ParrishSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+15
45.8%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin (Brents, Julius), PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Brents, Julius) 15 yards to the KANSASST11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
48.1%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the KanSt 11Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
48.0%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
45.6%
Max Duggan pass intercepted, touchback. Julius Brents return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:2863% → 85%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
36.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
36.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 15 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
34.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
33.1%
Will Howard run for 8 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
31.6%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+44
15.5%
Deuce Vaughn 44 Yd Run (Ty Zentner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 3:5319% → 22%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
18.8%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Williams, Savion (Parrish, Jacob), PENALTY KANSASST offside (Huggins, Eli) 5 yards to the TCU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
19.8%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
16.6%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin, PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Brents, Julius) 15 yards to the KANSASST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
18.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
17.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jared WileySimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
16.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+16
15.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 16 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
19.8%
Duggan, Max rush for 24 yards to the KANSASST6, PENALTY TCU holding (Coker, Andrew) 10 yards to the KANSASST40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
17.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+6
16.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 6 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+10
15.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
21.8%
Griffin Kell 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4285% → 89%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
14.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 19Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+12
12.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
11.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-2
10.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 35Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
10.8%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+45
11.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Taye Barber at the TCU 15 KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5615% → 66%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
14.5%
Max Duggan run for 15 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
15.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
13.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston, broken up by Julius BrentsSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+13
12.7%
Max Duggan run for 13 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+19
14.0%
Max Duggan run for 19 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
17.2%
Duggan, Max pass complete to Hudson, Jordan for 38 yards to the KANSASST0, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Hudson, Jordan) 15 yards to the TCU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+5
14.0%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+40
12.5%
Max Duggan run for 40 yds to the KanSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.0%
Max Duggan 8 Yd Run (Max Duggan Pass to Jared Wiley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:0751% → 48%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
49.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
45.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+12
46.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 12 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.1%
Will Howard pass incomplete to RJ Garcia IISimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
44.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
47.8%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
52.0%
Ty Zentner punt for 42 yds, downed at the TCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
55.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28Uncategorized
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0066% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
65.6%
Kendre Miller run for 15 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
65.6%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
65.6%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.3%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the KanSt 1Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.1%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the KanSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 29FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0059% → 71%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
41.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 9 yds to the TCU 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
41.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
41.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TCU 13Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
41.1%
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the TCU 10Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-3
43.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 13Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
29.2%
Ty Zentner 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:51
Max Duggan 8 Yd Run (Max Duggan Pass to Jared Wiley for Two-Point Conversion)
+53.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-29.2
TD · Q3 9:09
Kendre Miller 6 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)
+18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com