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UCF

UCF 28 at Tulane 45

TULN
2022 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2022 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:22 · Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense+15.5Pregame prior+4.6Score differential+5.6Garbage-time factor+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:09: Tyjae Spears run for 60 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +10.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:53: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +13.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:26: RJ Harvey pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 49 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +12.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:48: Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +24.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 8:18: Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 60 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +20.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 15 of 17
  1. Q1 11:58UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:20UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:01TULN 4th & 10 at UCF 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:30UCF 4th & 1 at TULN 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−1.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.4%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:46UCF 4th & 1 at TULN 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−1.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−7.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:26UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:36TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:52UCF 4th & 24 at UCF 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18TULN 4th & 12 at UCF 32, up 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:22UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:05UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:43UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:15TULN 4th & 8 at UCF 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:36UCF 4th & 10 at TULN 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:10TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:40UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:42UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 49, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:58UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 20, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:46UCF 4th & 4 at TULN 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:03UCF 4th & 1 at TULN 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:31UCF 4th & 5 at TULN 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.6
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:10UCF 4th & 8 at TULN 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:46TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:48UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:00TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:09TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:53UCF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:29TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:26UCF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:48UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:18TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:04TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4939% → 39%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
60.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 11 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
60.9%
Harvey, RJ rush for 9 yards to the TULANE47, PENALTY UCF holding (Holler, Alec) 10 yards to the UCF34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+6
61.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+9
60.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-1
60.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
61.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 4:0261% → 64%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
61.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the Tulan 16Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
60.9%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+7
60.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 7 yds to the Tulan 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
61.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 19 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
61.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 16 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
61.6%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+20
61.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 20 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
61.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
64.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 10 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:1937% → 35%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Isaiah BowserSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
64.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 12 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
63.6%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Darius Hodges for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+4
64.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-1
64.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+3
65.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 3 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:1965% → 66%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
64.7%
TULANE Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 17Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+5
64.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
65.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 11 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Bryce BohanonSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
65.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 5 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+54
65.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 54 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
66.5%
Tyjae Spears run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.1%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q1 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
65.5%
Valentino Ambrosio 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:0534% → 34%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
65.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
65.2%
Xavier Townsend run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
50
+4
65.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
65.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+10
65.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
65.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
65.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
65.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
66.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Tulan 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1067% → 67%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
66.7%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
66.9%
Michael Pratt run for 9 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
67.3%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
66.6%
Michael Pratt run for no gain to the Tulan 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:1235% → 41%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
65.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
65.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Javon Baker for 5 yds to the Tulan 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
65.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Tulan 14Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
66.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
67.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Tulan 11Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
68.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
66.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.7%
Xavier Townsend run for 5 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4063% → 72%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
62.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 16 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
64.4%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+13
64.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 13 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
71.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 43 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1629% → 27%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
70.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
71.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+1
72.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
73.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the Tulan 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4171% → 71%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
71.4%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
72.5%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Shae WyattSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
71.5%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Tyjae SpearsSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
70.8%
Kriston Esnard punt for 33 yds , Divaad Wilson returns for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:3628% → 26%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
71.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 6 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-9
71.0%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Patrick Jenkins for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-11
73.4%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 24
OWN 17
0
74.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 52 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for no gain to the Tulan 31 Jha'Quan Jackson fumbled, recovered by Tulan Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12INT
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:1276% → 75%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
76.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+25
75.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 25 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
77.7%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
77.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 17 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.1%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Shae WyattSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
78.2%
Michael Pratt sacked by Josh Celiscar for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
76.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Bryce BohanonSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 12
OPP 32
-22
75.0%
Michael Pratt pass intercepted Davonte Brown return for 22 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0927% → 26%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
73.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 10 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
74.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:4175% → 88%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
75.4%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the Tulan 25Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
75.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Will Wallace for 1 yd to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+9
74.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Alex Bauman for 9 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
77.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+60
87.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 60 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3513% → 12%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
86.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
86.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
87.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
87.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
87.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+4
88.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 4 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:5191% → 92%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
90.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+56
90.9%
Tyjae Spears run for 56 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
91.8%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 6 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
92.1%
Iverson Celestine run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+15
92.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Will Wallace for 15 yds Will Wallace fumbled, forced by Josh Celiscar, recovered by UCF Walter Yates IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5310% → 9%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
90.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
90.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 3
-2
91.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 12
OWN 1
0
91.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1593% → 92%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
92.6%
Tyjae Spears run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
92.8%
Michael Pratt run for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
92.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Shaadie Clayton-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
92.1%
Casey Glover punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:158% → 23%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
92.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 20 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
91.8%
RJ Harvey run for 20 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.7%
Ryan O'Keefe run for no gain to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
91.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
92.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+23
92.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 23 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
91.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
77.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2185% → 84%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
84.6%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
85.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shaadie Clayton-Johnson for 4 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
85.1%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 3
OPP 48
-5
84.0%
TULANE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 47Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+30
83.9%
Casey Glover punt for 45 yds, downed at the TULANE 8 TULANE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2916% → 14%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
84.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
84.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
85.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
86.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the Tulan 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
94.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 73 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:586% → 18%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
94.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
94.3%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 8 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
94.3%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
94.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+49
82.2%
RJ Harvey pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 49 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3886% → 86%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
86.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 2 yds Tyjae Spears fumbled, forced by Jason Johnson, recovered by UCF Jason JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:2719% → 40%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to RJ HarveySimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
81.4%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+15
84.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 15 yds to the Tulan 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
59.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2572% → 91%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.2%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Tyjae SpearsSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
70.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 13 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
90.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 60 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:3011% → 8%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
89.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
88.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
90.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
89.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
90.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 49
-3
91.9%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Dorian Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 28TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:3192% → 99%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
92.4%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+19
92.9%
Michael Pratt run for 19 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
93.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
98.5%
Michael Pratt run for 18 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29DOWNS
24 plays · 71 yds · 3:412% → 2%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
97.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Nick Anderson and Keith Cooper Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+25
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 25 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 10 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Patrick Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 46Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+7
97.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+6
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.5%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass complete to Baker, Javon for 12 yards to the TULANE21, PENALTY UCF illegal touching (Baker, Javon) 0 yards to the TULANE33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
97.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 5 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
97.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Tulan 17Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+9
97.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q4 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 4 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:48
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q4 8:18
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 60 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+20.3
TD · Q3 1:53
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com