2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:21 · Austin McCready punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 11:07: DeWayne McBride run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +7.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:39: Charvis Thornton run for 63 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +6.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:27: Jack Turner pass complete to Tre Harris for 17 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +9.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:52: Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +10.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:10: Marquis Crosby 1 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +7.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 11:44LT 4th & 2 at UAB 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.1%51% to convertField goal15.0%−0.192% to makePunt14.5%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:15UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snapGo for it83.2%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.3%average punt
- Q1 5:03LT 4th & 19 at UAB 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snapGo for it17.7%−0.411% to convertField goalTheir call18.1%58% to makePunt17.3%−0.8average punt
- Q1 1:54UAB 4th & 12 at LT 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it78.5%−0.323% to convertField goal78.4%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call78.8%average punt
- Q2 14:53LT 4th & 2 at LT 10, up 3Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snapGo for it21.7%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:33UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snapGo for it75.6%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%average punt
- Q2 10:33LT 4th & 8 at LT 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.6%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%average punt
- Q2 7:23LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it20.5%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.4%average punt
- Q2 5:21LT 4th & 15 at LT 23, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q2 2:05UAB 4th & 3 at LT 21, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snapGo for it83.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call83.1%−0.274% to makePunt81.1%−2.2average punt
- Q2 1:04LT 4th & 4 at LT 35, down 14Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.3%average punt
- Q3 5:17LT 4th & 3 at UAB 36, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.4%53% to convertField goal10.2%−1.242% to makePunt9.9%−1.5average punt
- Q4 14:48LT 4th & 8 at LT 19, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q4 13:16UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 45, up 17Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:32LT 4th & 3 at LT 28, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.6%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:29UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 16, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q4 4:22UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 28, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.1%−1.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%average punt
- Q4 4:22LT 4th & 6 at midfield, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:23LT 4th & 7 at UAB 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%37% to convertField goal7.4%−0.534% to makePunt6.9%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q2 9:17UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:23UAB Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.7%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:07UAB Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.1%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:39LT Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.0%97% to makeGo for two15.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22UAB Touchdown, up 17 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick91.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call91.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:27LT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.3%97% to makeGo for two17.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:52UAB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:10LT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.8%97% to makeGo for two9.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLTDrive 1DOWNS9 plays · 68 yds · 3:1010% → 11%
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
9.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Nate Jones for 4 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+20
9.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for 20 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
9.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+38
9.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Marquis Crosby for 38 yds to the UAB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 3:2989% → 87%
LTDrive 3FG8 plays · 51 yds · 3:1213% → 15%
Q1 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-10
13.2%
CROSBY, Marquis rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the UAB17, End of Play. PENALTY LAT Holding on ELLIS, Isaac enforced 10 yards from the UAB19 to the UAB29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0685% → 83%
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-4
15.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Bryce Damous for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0117% → 17%
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
17.3%
Austin McCready punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2082% → 80%
LTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 3:0019% → 21%
Q2 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+13
19.2%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Smoke Harris for 13 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
20.0%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
21.0%
Austin McCready punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8TD3 plays · 92 yds · 1:1678% → 84%
LTDrive 9PUNT TD6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4518% → 12%
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
17.5%
LYDDY, Landry pass to the right incomplete intended for ALLEN, Cyrus thrown to the LAT44. PENALTY UAB Pass Interference on SWOOPES, Keondre enforced 15 yards to the LAT25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5713% → 13%
UABDrive 11FG8 plays · 54 yds · 3:1687% → 89%
LTDrive 12DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:559% → 9%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
8.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:1492% → 92%
Q2 0:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+10
8.4%
HOPKINS, Dylan pass to the right incomplete intended for PALMER, Tejhaun broken up by BROOKS, Myles at the LAT9. PENALTY LAT Holding on MASON, Myles enforced 10 yards from the LAT33 to the LAT23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
8.3%
UAB Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dexter Boykin) to the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14FG9 plays · 54 yds · 0:439% → 15%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
9.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 23 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
9.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Marquis Crosby for 10 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
11.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tre Harris for 12 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:5386% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD3 plays · 75 yds · 1:228% → 15%
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
7.9%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 12 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1786% → 94%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
14.4%
MCBRIDE, DeWayne rush to the right for a gain of 20 yards to the UAB45 (SINGLETON, Cecil). PENALTY UAB Holding on WILSON, Brady enforced 10 yards from the UAB25 to the UAB15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
14.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dexter Boykin for 9 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
14.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Bryce Damous for 7 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
12.7%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 20 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD7 plays · 83 yds · 2:509% → 20%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
19.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tre Harris for 17 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3585% → 95%
LTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:558% → 7%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
8.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Nate Jones for no gain to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-7
8.2%
Jack Turner sacked by Reynard Ellis and Isaiah Forte for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 10Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+9
7.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 9 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+16
7.0%
Austin McCready punt for 58 yds , Starling Thomas V returns for 16 yds to the UAB 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3296% → 96%
Q4 13:16
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+4
4.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 38 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 4 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22INT9 plays · 46 yds · 3:116% → 6%
Q4 11:32
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+5
5.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
5.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Julien Lewis for 12 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
5.9%
Jack Turner pass complete to Julien Lewis for 22 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3698% → 98%
Q4 8:29
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+37
2.4%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 51 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 37 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD8 plays · 35 yds · 2:195% → 13%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
5.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Julien Lewis for 19 yds to the UAB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+11
5.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the UAB 8 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Drew Tuazama) to the UAB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4892% → 96%
Q4 4:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+23
4.3%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 49 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 23 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26DOWNS8 plays · 1 yds · 1:599% → 6%
UABDrive 27END OF GAME10 plays · 19 yds · 2:1898% → 98%
Q4 2:09
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
2.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:52
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q3 2:27
Jack Turner pass complete to Tre Harris for 17 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q3 11:07
DeWayne McBride run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)
-7.5