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WKU

Western Kentucky 32 at Florida Atlantic 31

FAU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1OTQ2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-37.4FAU 48.0%Austin Reed pass complete to JaylenHall for 22 yds for a TD, (BraydenNarveson KICK)AWAY 24 - HOME 24 · Q4 3:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:56 · Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 22 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+16.5+8.30−8.3−16.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1OTQ2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior−0.9Home team on offense−4.7Score differential−4.4Time remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Defense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:41: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 13 yds for a TD, (Carter Davis KICK) — FAU win probability +6.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 24 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST down — FAU win probability +8.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:08: Brayden Narveson 51 Yd Field Goal — WKU win probability +12.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:08: Larry McCammon 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick) — FAU win probability +24.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:56: Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 22 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +37.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:33FAU 4th & 13 at FAU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:59FAU 4th & 18 at WKU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35WKU 4th & 12 at FAU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:14FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:51WKU 4th & 3 at FAU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:47FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:17FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:59FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:08WKU 4th & 8 at FAU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:48FAU 4th & 10 at WKU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−8.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:59FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:44WKU 4th & 4 at FAU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−2.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:26WKU 4th & 5 at FAU 5, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    25.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−16.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:45FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 13, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:56WKU 4th & 9 at FAU 22, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−8.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:33FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 43, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−4.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:38WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−4.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WKU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q4 13:08FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 3:56WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1FUMBLE
12 plays · 26 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
36.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds Austin Reed fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Dwight ToombsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 10:33
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
36.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:33
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+28
37.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Brackenridge) to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 6:59
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
38.1%
punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:5362% → 60%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
37.9%
Markese Stepp run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
38.3%
pass incomplete to Joshua Simon WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass ( Yards) to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
38.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen Hall, broken up by Daemon HillSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
39.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6Uncategorized
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 2:14
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+5
39.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jordan Young for 5 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
40.4%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
40.4%
N'Kosi Perry run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+5
39.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 5 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+8
39.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 48 yds , Jaylen Hall returns for 8 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 0
OWN 21
-10
39.8%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (Marquice Robinson) to the FlAtl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
65.4%
Jahmal Edrine 25 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+21
41.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 21 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
41.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.1%
Austin Reed 1 Yd Run (Austin Reed Pass to Joshua Simon for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua SimonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 15:0061% → 59%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
39.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
39.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
39.3%
Malachi Corley 45 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
41.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 3 yds to the WKent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 8:4147% → 51%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
47.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 13 yds for a TD, (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.1%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
47.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 10 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
48.4%
LaJohntay Wester run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
49.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
48.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
50.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jordan Young for 7 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+16
50.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 16 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11DOWNS
1 play · 41 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 5:51
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
41.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joey Beljan, broken up by Latrell JeanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 3:47
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
45.0%
Riley Thompson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
2 plays · 33 yds · 1:5557% → 56%
Q2 1:55
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
43.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
43.7%
pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:1748% → 48%
Q2 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
47.6%
Riley Thompson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+6
47.8%
to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15PUNT
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 13:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
45.3%
punt for 43 yds , Jaylen Hall returns for 1 yd to the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 12:3459% → 50%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
41.0%
Malachi Corley 46 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+24
49.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 24 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3951% → 52%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
50.9%
pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
50.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+48
51.7%
Larry McCammon run for 48 yds for a TD, (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18FG
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 8:08
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
38.9%
Brayden Narveson 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19FG
5 plays · 46 yds · 6:1148% → 52%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.7%
pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
47.6%
pass incomplete to Jahmal EdrineSimilar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
45.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester, broken up by Derrick SmithSimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
50.1%
Carter Davis 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20INT
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.7%
Austin Reed pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21PUNT
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 1:59
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
48.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:5257% → 84%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
57.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Carter Boatwright for 23 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
58.6%
Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
58.6%
Larry McCammon run for 15 yds to the WKent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.5%
Larry McCammon 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 66 yds · 10:4424% → 15%
Q4 10:44
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+16
76.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 16 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
71.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+18
74.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 18 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
71.4%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen Hall, broken up by Jaylen WesterSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.6%
pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q4 8:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joshua Simon, broken up by Daemon HillSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
85.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25PUNT
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 6:45
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
85.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 53 yds , Jaylen Hall returns for no gain to the WKent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 3:56
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+22
48.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 22 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27PUNT
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 2:33
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
57.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 28PUNT
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q4 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+29
52.6%
punt for 34 yds WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal formation (Lorenzo Hernandez) to the FlAtl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29MISSED FG
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:2365% → 59%
Q4 0:23
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+10
64.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 10 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
64.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+8
62.4%
Larry McCammon run for 8 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
58.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 17 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-58.7
TD · Q4 3:56
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 22 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-37.4
TD · Q4 13:08
Larry McCammon 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)
+24.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com