Try the model
WKU

Western Kentucky 17 at Auburn 41

AUB
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:54 · Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 9 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+18.7Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:21: Jarquez Hunter pass complete to Koy Moore for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:35: Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 22 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:06: Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 27 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +14.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:08: Tank Bigsby run for 35 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +16.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:48: Jarquez Hunter run for 40 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:41WKU 4th & 10 at AUB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54AUB 4th & 3 at WKU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:15WKU 4th & 5 at AUB 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:37AUB 4th & 9 at WKU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:42WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:10AUB 4th & 21 at AUB 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−3.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:36WKU 4th & 5 at AUB 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:43AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41WKU 4th & 1 at AUB 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−1.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:08AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:58AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:21WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:17AUB 4th & 11 at WKU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−10.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:19WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:26WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:29AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:52WKU 4th & 23 at AUB 38, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    11.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:01WKU 4th & 2 at AUB 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:26WKU 4th & 10 at AUB 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:16AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:21AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:35WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:06WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:08AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:48AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:15AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 1:1930% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 10 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
70.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
70.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+34
70.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 34 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
70.0%
Dalvin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
70.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+50
69.8%
Brayden Narveson 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
17 plays · 68 yds · 6:2570% → 72%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
69.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
69.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+11
69.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 11 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.0%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
69.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
69.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+12
69.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 12 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+9
69.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 9 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
69.9%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 36Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+12
69.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
69.9%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the WKent 12Similar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
69.9%
BIGSBY, Tank rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the WKU26 (HAILASSIE, Kahlef). PENALTY WKU Face mask on HAILASSIE, Kahlef enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the WKU24 to the WKU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
70.1%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+11
69.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jay Fair for 11 yds to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:5529% → 29%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.5%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
71.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+18
71.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 18 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
70.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 18 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
70.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
70.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
70.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
71.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:3872% → 72%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
72.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+13
72.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 13 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
72.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
72.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+12
72.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 12 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
72.8%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 15
OPP 40
0
72.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+6
72.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 6 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+51
72.2%
Alex McPherson 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5028% → 27%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
72.3%
Markese Stepp run for 10 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
72.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 3 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
71.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
72.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+18
72.9%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 18 yds to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:3273% → 72%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
73.2%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-9
72.8%
Robby Ashford sacked by Kaleb Oliver for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 21
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 21
OWN 31
0
71.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:3428% → 29%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
72.3%
Malachi Corley run for 11 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
71.7%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+26
71.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 26 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
71.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
71.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+4
71.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
70.7%
Brayden Narveson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0573% → 81%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
72.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offsides (Darius Shipp) to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+4
73.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
73.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+8
73.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
73.9%
Robby Ashford run for 9 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+17
73.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 17 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
74.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
80.7%
Jarquez Hunter pass complete to Koy Moore for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:3922% → 31%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
78.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 6 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
78.1%
L.T. Sanders run for 2 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
78.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
78.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
78.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+40
78.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 25 yds to the AUBURN 38 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Caleb Wooden) to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
76.2%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
69.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 22 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5273% → 73%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
73.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
74.8%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
73.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
72.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 3:3727% → 44%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
73.4%
Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
72.7%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.7%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
73.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
74.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 13 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
71.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 10 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
70.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
70.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
72.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
73.7%
Austin Reed run for 4 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
71.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
71.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
56.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 27 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4665% → 63%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
64.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
64.8%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
64.1%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
63.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2639% → 40%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
60.6%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
59.7%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Holding (Quantavious Leslie) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4466% → 64%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
65.6%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+7
65.2%
Robby Ashford run for 7 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
66.0%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
64.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:3739% → 37%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
61.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 13 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
61.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
61.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+13
63.0%
Tom Ellard punt for 43 yds , Dazalin Worsham returns for 13 yds to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:0466% → 69%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
65.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 2
50
+12
67.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+29
67.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 29 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
68.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
68.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 9Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
66.7%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
64.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Oscar Chapman) to the WKent 11Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
69.2%
Alex McPherson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5333% → 32%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
67.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 8 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
65.5%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+4
67.0%
Austin Reed run for 4 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
66.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 7 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
64.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
64.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
67.7%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 3:1168% → 87%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
68.4%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+6
68.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+10
68.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 10 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
70.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
71.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+19
70.2%
Robby Ashford run for 19 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
86.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 35 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:3617% → 14%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
83.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
84.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+16
86.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 16 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
83.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
83.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
84.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:26
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
85.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5785% → 84%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
85.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
84.8%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
84.1%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
83.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:3716% → 10%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
84.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
83.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 2 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
82.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+12
83.5%
Austin Reed run for 12 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
82.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+9
80.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
80.3%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
80.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-3
87.2%
Austin Reed run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 23
OPP 38
0
90.1%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 2:0489% → 98%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
89.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+23
88.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 23 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
89.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
97.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 40 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23INT TD
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:263% → 1%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
96.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter pass complete to Malachi Corley for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 23Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
96.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for no gain to the WKent 23Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-5
96.7%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Wes Dorsey) to the WKent 18Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 16
OWN 18
-27
99.4%
D.J. James 27 Yd Interception Return (Alex McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 19 yds · 5:361% → 0%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.3%
L.T. Sanders run for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.3%
Darius Ocean pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.4%
OCEAN, Darius pass up the middle intercepted by SCOTT, Keionte at the AUB25. Scott return for 0 yards to the AUB25, End of Play, clock 05:14. PENALTY AUB Offsides on JOSEPH JR., Morris enforced 5 yards from the AUB44 to the AUB39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
99.5%
Darius Ocean run for 3 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+2
99.5%
Darius Ocean pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 2 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.4%
Darius Ocean pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
99.4%
L.T. Sanders run for 5 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.4%
L.T. Sanders run for 7 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-13
99.4%
Darius Ocean sacked by Dylan Brooks for a loss of 13 yards to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+6
99.8%
Michael Mathison run for 6 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.8%
Darius Ocean sacked by Hayden Brice for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
[NH] Kneel down by AUB at AUB24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:08
Tank Bigsby run for 35 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)
+16.6
TD · Q2 0:06
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 27 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q4 7:48
Jarquez Hunter run for 40 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com