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Florida Atlantic 21 at Middle Tennessee 49

MTSU
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:39 · Riley Thompson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+12.0Score differential+4.2Pregame prior−7.7Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:25: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:22: Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 14 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +20.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:14: Larry McCammon run for 5 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) declined, (Carter Davis KICK) — FAU win probability +15.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:20: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 18 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:47: Darius Bracy run for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:35FAU 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:30MTSU 4th & 14 at FAU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39FAU 4th & 12 at MTSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:23FAU 4th & 22 at FAU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:25FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.6%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:04FAU 4th & 12 at MTSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:28FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 36, down 21
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:39FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:20MTSU 4th & 3 at FAU 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−9.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.2%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:30FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:14MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:12MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:49FAU 4th & 15 at FAU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:38MTSU 4th & 2 at FAU 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:24FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 40, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:17MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:35FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:40MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:25MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:22MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:14FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:20MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:03FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:47MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:47MTSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4334% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 8 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 5 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 36 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 20 yds to the FlAtl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 1 yd to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4264% → 64%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
36.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
36.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+6
36.2%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
36.1%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+43
36.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 43 yds to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
35.9%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.0%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:0537% → 38%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
36.9%
Chase Cunningham run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
36.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 19 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
37.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 7 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+16
37.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 16 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
37.4%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
37.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+13
37.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 13 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
37.4%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
37.2%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
38.5%
RANKIN, Zeke field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at FAU16], score nullified by penalty, clock 05:34. PENALTY Before the snap, MTS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the FAU9 to the FAU14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+30
37.9%
Zeke Rankin 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5162% → 61%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
37.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 36 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
37.0%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
37.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
37.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
38.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:5939% → 47%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
38.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
38.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+34
38.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 34 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
39.8%
Chase Cunningham run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+13
40.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 13 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
40.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 1 yd to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+15
40.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Personal Foul (Evan Anderson) to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
46.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 16 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:1355% → 51%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
45.0%
LaJohntay Wester run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
45.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+24
46.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 24 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
44.6%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-5
44.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (LaJohntay Wester) to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+3
45.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-5
45.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 38
-8
45.7%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Christian Dixon and Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
48.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 40 yds, downed at the MTnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:5848% → 61%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
48.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
48.0%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
47.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Amari Wansley) to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
49.5%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
48.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+12
48.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 12 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
49.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 13 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
49.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 19 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
49.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 3 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:2142% → 34%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.0%
Larry McCammon run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
57.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-6
57.8%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Marley Cook for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+15
58.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 15 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
57.6%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
57.1%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
57.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 10 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
56.7%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
57.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
57.8%
Willie Taggart Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
63.8%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
65.8%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for BAILEY, Bryce thrown to the FAU45; QB hurried by BRADLEY, Marlon. PENALTY MTS Holding on PEASANT, Frank enforced 10 yards from the MTS49 to the MTS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4265% → 85%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+17
65.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 17 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-10
65.9%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right complete for 3 yards to PEASANT, Frank caught at the FAU41 and advanced to the FAU41 (MCBRIDE, Courtney). PENALTY MTS Holding on GRAHAM, Jacqui enforced 10 yards from the FAU44 to the MTS46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+20
65.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 20 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
65.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 2 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
65.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 6 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+12
65.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 12 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
85.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 14 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4818% → 17%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.2%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
82.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 5 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
81.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
83.0%
Riley Thompson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11INT
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:0286% → 88%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
86.0%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+12
86.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 12 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
88.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 17 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
88.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
88.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 7 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
88.4%
Chase Cunningham pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1219% → 34%
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
80.9%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.8%
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) declined, (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0772% → 76%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
72.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 6 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+15
75.8%
Frank Peasant run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2129% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
71.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
71.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
73.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1974% → 91%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
74.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 11 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
74.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
74.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 9 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
75.1%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
75.1%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
75.1%
Chase Cunningham run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
75.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 3 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
74.4%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+18
90.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 18 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1710% → 22%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
89.3%
N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
89.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 22 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
89.2%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
89.2%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Marley Cook for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+45
78.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 45 yds for a TD, (Carter Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1681% → 94%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.9%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
81.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 5 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
81.7%
Chase Cunningham run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
80.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+49
79.9%
Jordan Ferguson run for 49 yds to the FlAtl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.8%
Chase Cunningham run for no gain to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.4%
Darius Bracy run for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:176% → 5%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
94.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
95.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 57 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 4 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1695% → 95%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
95.1%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
95.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-5
95.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chase Cunningham) to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
95.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keylan Rutledge) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+3
95.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 55 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 3 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:544% → 4%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+37
95.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 37 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
95.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Marvin Landy for 11 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
94.8%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Christian Dixon and Jalen Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 14
OPP 32
0
95.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+31
97.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 31 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Javonte ShermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0897% → 98%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
97.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 13 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
97.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
97.5%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-4
97.5%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
97.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 57 yds, downed at the FlAtl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:232% → 2%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
98.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+10
98.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
98.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for no gain to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-5
98.2%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (Nick Weber) to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 15
OWN 13
0
98.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 15
OWN 13
+16
98.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 16 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 4:0299% → 100%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
98.5%
Darius Bracy run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+11
98.5%
Darius Bracy run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
98.5%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+7
98.5%
Darius Bracy run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+5
98.4%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
98.5%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 5 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 8 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Javion Posey for 10 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 40 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Jordan FergusonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Darius Bracy run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-1
99.9%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+1
99.9%
Preston Rice run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
100.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 9 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-5
100.0%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (Jahmal Edrine) to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
100.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 5 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
100.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
100.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:22
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 14 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+20
TD · Q3 10:20
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 18 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+16.2
TD · Q2 0:14
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) declined, (Carter Davis KICK)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com