Try the model
FIU

Florida International 6 at UTEP 40

UTEP
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · Daton Montiel punt for 52 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+1.2Home team on offense+36.1Score differential+31.2Blowout margin+17.6Garbage-time factor+10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 5:06: Daton Montiel kickoff for 46 yds , Walter Dawn Jr. return for 17 yds to the FlaIn 49 — UTEP win probability +3.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:05: Reynaldo Flores run for 10 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +0.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:15: Kelly Akharaiyi 68 Yd pass from Calvin Brownholtz (Gavin Baechle Kick) — UTEP win probability +2.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:05: Reynaldo Flores 43 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick) — UTEP win probability +4.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:52: Tyrin Smith 17 Yd pass from Calvin Brownholtz (Gavin Baechle Kick) — UTEP win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 5FIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 0:00FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:57FIU 4th & 10 at UTEP 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:04FIU 4th & 13 at FIU 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:26FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02UTEP 4th & 4 at FIU 9, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:31FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 31, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:27UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 49, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:59FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 18, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:58UTEP 4th & 9 at FIU 37, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 27, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:11UTEP 4th & 1 at FIU 1, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:56UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 49, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:40FIU 4th & 12 at FIU 9, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:15UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:05UTEP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:52UTEP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1TD
22 plays · 75 yds · 9:1586% → 85%
Q1 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.5%
Calvin Brownholtz 1 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.2%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
84.2%
Reynaldo Flores run for 2 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
83.9%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 10 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
84.6%
Ronald Awatt run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaun Peterson Jr.) to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
84.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 11 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
84.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 9 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
84.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
84.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+10
84.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass incomplete to Kelly Akharaiyi, broken up by Andrew Volmar for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Andrew Volmar) to the FlaIn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.9%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.9%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 5 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
86.6%
pass incomplete to Tyrese ChambersSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
86.9%
Daton Montiel punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3Uncategorized
4 plays · -1 yds · 7:0887% → 88%
Q1 7:08
4TH & 49
OWN 31
0
86.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for no gainSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 49
OWN 31
0
87.8%
pass incomplete to Reynaldo FloresSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 49
OWN 31
0
87.5%
pass incomplete to Reynaldo FloresSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 50
OWN 30
+1
87.8%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 5:2514% → 13%
Q1 5:25
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
86.5%
Daton Montiel punt for 45 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
86.7%
Grayson James sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 12
-2
86.8%
Lexington Joseph run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+4
86.9%
Lexington Joseph run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 14 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Julius Pierce) to the FlaIn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 4:5988% → 88%
Q1 4:59
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+17
87.6%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 17 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
87.7%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
87.7%
Deion Hankins run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+12
87.5%
James Tupou run for 12 yds to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
87.7%
Deion Hankins run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+5
87.7%
Ronald Awatt run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.1%
Reynaldo Flores run for 10 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
88.2%
Ronald Awatt run for 1 yd to the UTEP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:0313% → 13%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.8%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 13 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.6%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
86.7%
Grayson James run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+22
86.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 22 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
86.4%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 40
0
86.6%
pass incomplete to Tyrese ChambersSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+15
86.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 15 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
85.9%
Grayson James run for 5 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-5
85.9%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
86.4%
pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
87.1%
Chase Gabriel 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
89.2%
Kelly Akharaiyi 68 Yd pass from Calvin Brownholtz (Gavin Baechle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+43
94.0%
Reynaldo Flores 43 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT
1 play · -3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:04
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
93.4%
Daton Montiel punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
1 play · 69 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
98.0%
Tyrin Smith 17 Yd pass from Calvin Brownholtz (Gavin Baechle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT
1 play · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 2:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 25 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
50
0
98.8%
Grayson James pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.0%
Lexington Joseph run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q2 0:35
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
98.8%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to James Tupou for 5 yds to the FlaIn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.8%
pass incomplete to James TupouSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
98.8%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 6 yds to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
98.8%
Calvin Brownholtz pass incomplete to Tyrin Smith, broken up by Donovan ManuelSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
99.1%
Gavin Baechle 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT
1 play · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Daton Montiel punt for 49 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the UTEP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:27
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT
1 play · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:59
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Daton Montiel punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
2 plays · 17 yds · 5:58100% → 100%
Q3 5:58
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Joshua Sloan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
99.8%
UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Robert Mervin) to the UTEP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT
1 play · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:44
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Daton Montiel punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Andrew Volmar) to the FlaIn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.8%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21DOWNS
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
-1
99.9%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23PUNT
3 plays · -2 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 2:56
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Joshua Sloan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
100.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-5
100.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24PUNT
1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:40
4TH & 12
OWN 9
0
100.0%
Daton Montiel punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Jalen Joseph run for 3 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:05
Reynaldo Flores 43 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)
+4.8
TD · Q2 3:52
Tyrin Smith 17 Yd pass from Calvin Brownholtz (Gavin Baechle Kick)
+4.5
TD · Q4 5:06
Daton Montiel kickoff for 46 yds , Walter Dawn Jr. return for 17 yds to the FlaIn 49
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com