2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:54 · Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the WKent 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:15: Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 62 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +4.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:45: JaQues Evans 14 Yd Fumble Return (Brayden Narveson Kick) — WKU win probability +7.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:32: Uriah West run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +7.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:39: Christian VanSickle 26 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +2.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:37: Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q3 7:39RICE 4th & 8 at WKU 8, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call8.0%90% to makePunt2.0%−6.1average punt
- Q3 3:05RICE 4th & 20 at RICE 15, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it1.7%−1.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q3 0:23WKU 4th & 1 at RICE 26, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%71% to convertField goal97.6%−0.564% to makePunt96.3%−1.9average punt
- Q4 10:51RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 4, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 3:54WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 43, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:58WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:15WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two86.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:45WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:32RICE Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.2%97% to makeGo for two11.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:37WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:16WKU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0282% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+36
81.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 36 yds to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
81.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 25 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2INT10 plays · 55 yds · 5:0819% → 20%
Q1 12:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
81.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Cameron Montgomery for no gain to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
81.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 11 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
50
+14
81.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 14 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
81.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 9 yds to the WKent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3INT9 plays · 61 yds · 2:2881% → 82%
Q1 7:50
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+6
81.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 6 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+13
81.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 13 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+19
81.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 19 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4INT12 plays · 50 yds · 7:3419% → 21%
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+7
81.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 7 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
81.0%
TJ McMahon sacked by Terrion Thompson and JaQues Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 22Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+17
81.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 17 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+6
79.6%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 6 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD12 plays · 98 yds · 4:3381% → 85%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
80.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+8
80.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 8 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
80.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 6 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
80.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+62
85.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 62 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · -11 yds · 1:3016% → 8%
RICEDrive 7TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:138% → 15%
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
91.7%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 5 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
91.4%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 4 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
90.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for 13 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+15
90.9%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 15 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8FG7 plays · 68 yds · 0:2690% → 90%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
89.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 25 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
90.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 38 yds to the Rice 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9FG18 plays · 67 yds · 7:2110% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.8%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 5 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
88.6%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Jack Bradley for 5 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
88.7%
CONNORS, Dean rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the WKU0, TOUCHDOWN RIC, score nullified by penalty, clock 09:15. PENALTY RIC Holding on ONIANWA, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the WKU9 to the WKU19 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
91.2%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 7 yds to the WKent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD7 plays · 69 yds · 2:5791% → 98%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
91.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 8 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
91.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 26 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
91.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 31 yds to the Rice 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:323% → 3%
Q3 4:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-8
97.3%
Shawqi Itraish sacked by JaQues Evans for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12DOWNS9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4298% → 99%
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
98.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 3 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
98.4%
REED, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Daewood thrown to the RIC12. PENALTY RIC Offsides on FLOYD, Izeya enforced 5 yards from the RIC40 to the RIC35 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
98.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for no gain to the Rice 35Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
99.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 9 yds to the Rice 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13INT4 plays · 14 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
98.3%
ITRAISH, Shawqi pass up the middle incomplete intended for CAMPBELL, Kobie thrown to the RIC48. PENALTY WKU Offsides on EVANS, JaQues enforced 5 yards from the RIC35 to the RIC40 and results in a 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · 36 yds · 0:19100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.6%
REED, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for MATHISON, Michael thrown to the RIC15. PENALTY RIC Offsides on BOENISCH, Blake enforced 5 yards from the RIC40 to the RIC35 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+31
99.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 31 yds Jaylen Hall fumbled, recovered by Rice George Nyakwol for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trey Schuman) to the Rice 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 2 yds · 3:001% → 0%
Q4 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
98.7%
OTOVIANO, Juma rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the RIC6 (OLIVER, Kaleb). PENALTY Before the snap, RIC Delay Of Game on ITRAISH, Shawqi enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the end of the play at the RIC6 to the RIC3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+46
99.9%
Conor Hunt punt for 42 yds , Jaylen Hall returns for 46 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 41 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 7 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
99.9%
ITRAISH, Shawqi pass to the left complete for -12 yards to THOMPSON, Tyson caught at the RIC29 and advanced to the RIC20 (WILLIAMS, Davion). PENALTY WKU Face mask on WILLIAMS, Davion enforced 15 yards from the RIC32 to the RIC47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.9%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 11 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
99.9%
Cameron Montgomery run for 8 yds to the WKent 49 Cameron Montgomery fumbled, recovered by WKent Dareon Goodrum RICE Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jack Bradley) to the WKent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD5 plays · 51 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
RICEDrive 18INT6 plays · 45 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 13 yds to the Rice 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
99.9%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Cameron Montgomery for 16 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+8
99.9%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Boden Groen for 8 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19END OF GAME6 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:45
JaQues Evans 14 Yd Fumble Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)
+7.6
TD · Q2 0:32
Uriah West run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q3 4:37
Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+6.2