2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:08 · Jack Turner pass intercepted
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:48: Brenden Brady run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +1.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:08: Landry Lyddy pass complete to Smoke Harris for 32 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:35: Kevorian Barnes run for 27 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:48: Jared Sackett 29 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jared Sackett 22 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:40LT 4th & 1 at LT 29, down 7Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it13.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:44LT 4th & 2 at UTSA 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.3%57% to convertField goal11.9%−0.538% to makePunt11.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:48UTSA 4th & 7 at LT 12, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.7%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%86% to makePunt91.3%−2.6average punt
- Q2 4:08LT 4th & 2 at UTSA 19, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.0%56% to convertField goal5.5%−0.577% to makePunt3.1%−2.8average punt
- Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 5 at LT 5, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snapGo for it96.1%33% to convertField goalTheir call96.0%−0.192% to makePunt93.9%−2.2average punt
- Q3 14:09UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 32, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 12:11LT 4th & 3 at LT 38, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:11LT 4th & 3 at LT 38, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:29UTSA 4th & 5 at LT 29, up 34Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%41% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.158% to makePunt99.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:08LT 4th & 3 at UTSA 19, down 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%51% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.177% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:25UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 44, up 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:35UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:30UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.7%97% to makeGo for two87.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:48UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:08LT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.4%97% to makeGo for two11.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:35UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:35UTSA Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:41UTSA Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLTDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3010% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
90.1%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 19 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
90.1%
Shotgun Crosby,Marquis rush left for 6 yards gain to the LaTech50 (Brown,Brandon) PENALTY UTSA Offside (Simon,Asyrus) 5 yards from LaTech44 to LaTech49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+4
90.1%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
89.6%
run for 4 yds to the LaTch 49 fumbled, recovered by LaTch Jamal LigonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD7 plays · 49 yds · 2:5590% → 90%
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
89.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 3 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
89.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
89.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4911% → 11%
UTSADrive 4TD1 play · 46 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5DOWNS10 plays · 37 yds · 4:4610% → 10%
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
90.1%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 6 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
90.1%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Julien Lewis for 9 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
90.0%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Julien Lewis for 6 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD4 plays · 62 yds · 0:5691% → 93%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
90.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
90.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 13 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
90.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 22 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:407% → 11%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.6%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
92.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lyddy,Landry pass incomplete short middle to Allen,Cyrus PENALTY UTSA Offside 5 yards from LaTech29 to LaTech34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+13
92.6%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
89.0%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Smoke Harris for 32 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD8 plays · 78 yds · 2:2590% → 95%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+13
90.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 13 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
90.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
90.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+16
90.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 16 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Landry Lyddy pass intercepted Dywan Griffin fumbled, recovered by LaTch Carson Bruno for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10INT3 plays · 3 yds · 1:066% → 6%
UTSADrive 11FG8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2695% → 96%
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
94.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
94.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 8 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+6
94.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12DOWNS10 plays · 31 yds · 3:306% → 5%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
94.2%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Praise Okorie for 6 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
93.8%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Nate Jones for 3 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+5
94.2%
PENALTY UTSA Offside (Fortune,Nicktroy) 5 yards from UTSA30 to UTSA25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+10
94.6%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dadrian Taylor) to the TexSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FG15 plays · 86 yds · 4:0896% → 99%
Q2 4:08
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+47
95.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 47 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
96.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
96.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds to the LaTch 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
LTDrive 15DOWNS6 plays · 7 yds · 1:583% → 1%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
97.5%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
97.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lyddy,Landry pass complete short right to Harris,Smoke for 6 yards to the LaTech40 (Taylor,Dadrian) PENALTY UTSA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from LaTech34 to LaTech39. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD2 plays · 38 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
LTDrive 17FUMBLE12 plays · 55 yds · 3:541% → 1%
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
99.4%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+15
99.5%
Bengu,Arlind punt 37 yards to the UTSA18, out of bounds at UTSA18 PENALTY UTSA Roughing The Kicker (Gurley,Ronald) 15 yards from LaTech45 to UTSA40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+19
99.3%
Landry Lyddy run for 6 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Christian Clayton) to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-7
99.5%
Landry Lyddy sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 20 Landry Lyddy fumbled, recovered by LaTch Trey Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FG11 plays · 51 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q3 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
99.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 10 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Frank pass complete deep right to Carpenter,Chris for 15 yards to the LaTech40 (Singleton,Cecil), out of bounds PENALTY UTSA Holding (Davis,Isaiah) 10 yards from UTSA45 to UTSA35. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19INT13 plays · 56 yds · 5:210% → 0%
Q3 2:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
99.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD20 plays · 80 yds · 11:27100% → 100%
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
99.9%
Eddie Lee Marburger run for 12 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Jaren Randle for 6 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
99.9%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Camron Cooper for 4 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21END OF GAME2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:35
Kevorian Barnes run for 27 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
+4
TD · Q1 0:08
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Smoke Harris for 32 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-3.6
FG · Q2 0:00
Jared Sackett 22 yd FG GOOD
+2.6