2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:22 · Daton Montiel punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:00: Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 1 — FIU win probability +2.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:18: N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +1.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:47: Grayson James run for 28 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +3.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:15: LaJohntay Wester run for 9 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:55: FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Andrew Volmar) to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST down — FAU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 13:18FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q1 13:18FAU 4th & 1 at FIU 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.7%71% to convertField goal82.5%−0.242% to makePunt82.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 13:18FAU 4th & 11 at FIU 32, up 7Close callWent for it · 82.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.6%−<0.127% to convertField goal82.7%51% to makePunt82.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:00FAU 4th & 1 at FIU 36, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.4%71% to convertField goal86.4%−1.042% to makePunt86.2%−1.1average punt
- Q1 0:00FAU 4th & 11 at FIU 32, up 19Close callWent for it · 87.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.0%−0.327% to convertField goal87.3%51% to makePunt86.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:20FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 33, down 19Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:22FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.5%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q2 9:28FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 18, up 17Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:21FAU 4th & 24 at FAU 41, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it89.9%−1.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.2%average punt
- Q2 4:38FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 16, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.347% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.5%average punt
- Q3 12:04FAU 4th & 4 at FIU 33, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.7%48% to convertField goal94.4%−0.449% to makePunt94.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 9:55FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 39, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:35FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 39, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:09FIU 4th & 11 at FAU 43, down 31Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−<0.127% to convertField goal1.5%−0.128% to makePunt1.5%average punt
- Q3 2:12FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 17, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 12:45FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 39, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 9:54FAU 4th & 18 at FAU 25, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 3:37FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 38, up 45Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:30FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 38, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 8:46FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:47FIU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.0%97% to makeGo for two12.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:15FAU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:48FAU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:50FAU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1INT4 plays · 0 yds · 14:0014% → 21%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.2%
Grayson James pass intercepted for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Phillip Houston) to the FlaIn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 14:1613% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD4 plays · 4 yds · 15:0087% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD25 plays · 60 yds · 13:1886% → 90%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
13.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 6 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+21
13.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 21 yds to the FlaIn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
13.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the FlaIn 5Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
13.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
10.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 6 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+21
10.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 21 yds to the FlaIn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
9.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the FlaIn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 8:4612% → 12%
FAUDrive 6TD27 plays · 83 yds · 7:2088% → 91%
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+19
11.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 19 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
11.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 9 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+10
11.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Perry,N'Kosi pass incomplete short right to Burton,Je'Quan PENALTY FIU Holding (Cole,Adrian) 10 yards from FIU35 to FIU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
11.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 5 yds to the FlaIn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+19
9.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 19 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
9.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+10
9.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive holding (Adrian Cole) to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
9.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 5 yds to the FlaIn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 1:1811% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8FG6 plays · 58 yds · 0:2291% → 91%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+2
8.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 2 yds to the FlaIn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9TD19 plays · 75 yds · 14:0710% → 13%
Q2 14:07
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+11
10.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Artez Hooker for 11 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.3%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather, broken up by Armani-Eli AdamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+11
12.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Artez Hooker for 11 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 10:4189% → 95%
Q2 9:28
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+3
11.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 49 yds , Tyrese Chambers returns for 3 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11FUMBLE7 plays · 9 yds · 9:2810% → 9%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
9.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 4 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
9.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 9 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
10.4%
Grayson James run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 45 Grayson James fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Michal Antoine Jr.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
8.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 4 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
8.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 9 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · -14 yds · 8:0193% → 95%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
7.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Perry,N'Kosi pass incomplete short left PENALTY FAU Holding (Bordner,Brendan) 10 yards from FIU45 to FAU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+5
7.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 5 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 24
OWN 41
0
7.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 49 yds , Tyrese Chambers returns for no gain to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
4.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (Brendan Bordner) to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 46
-5
5.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 6:2110% → 8%
Q2 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+4
9.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 4 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+31
9.2%
Daton Montiel punt for 50 yds for a 1ST down , LaJohntay Wester returns for 31 yds to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+4
8.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 4 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14TD10 plays · 20 yds · 4:3894% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15INT15 plays · 41 yds · 2:298% → 4%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
9.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
4.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34 Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17DOWNS14 plays · 30 yds · 14:5795% → 98%
Q3 14:57
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+15
5.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Andrew Volmar) to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+4
5.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+5
5.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 5 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+15
2.0%
pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Andrew Volmar) to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+4
1.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+5
2.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 5 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 5 yds · 12:046% → 3%
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
5.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 7 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+1
4.5%
Daton Montiel run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 38 Daton Montiel fumbled, recovered by FlaInSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 4
OWN 39
-1
4.5%
Daton Montiel run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 38 Daton Montiel fumbled, recovered by FlaInSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
2.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 7 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD9 plays · 38 yds · 9:0097% → 99%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
3.4%
PENALTY FIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Volmar,Andrew) 15 yards from FIU38 to FIU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
3.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Carter Boatwright for 3 yds to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.5%
PENALTY FIU Offside (Guerad,Jordan) 2 yards from FIU03 to FIU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
1.9%
PENALTY FIU Horse Collar Tackle (Kinsler,Latarie) 15 yards from FAU35 to FAU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
0.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Andrew Volmar) to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 40 yds · 2:062% → 1%
FAUDrive 21TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2198% → 99%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
1.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Perry,N'Kosi pass incomplete short middle to Edrine,Jahmal broken up by Cole,Adrian PENALTY FAU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Richardson,Deshawn) 5 yards from FAU46 to FAU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+26
1.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 26 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
0.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 17 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:301% → 0%
Q3 3:42
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+7
0.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Kejon Owens for 7 yds to the FlaIn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23TD8 plays · 53 yds · 2:2299% → 100%
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.5%
Willie Taggart Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:050% → 0%
FAUDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q4 12:45
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-5
0.5%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Atcavage,Alex) 5 yards from FAU30 to FAU25. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 26FUMBLE8 plays · 65 yds · 4:290% → 0%
FAUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 3:37
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FlaIn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
0.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+6
0.1%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 6 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:47
Grayson James run for 28 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q1 0:00
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 1
+2.6
TD · Q1 1:18
N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-1.9