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CLT

Charlotte 14 at Middle Tennessee 24

MTSU
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:22 · Bailey Rice punt for 21 yds, downed at the MTnSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+6.8Home team on offense−2.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:11: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 24 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK) — CLT win probability +9.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 24 — CLT win probability +8.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:50: Jordan Ferguson 1 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +15.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:21: Frank Peasant run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +19.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:53: Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 29 — MTSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:34CLT 4th & 7 at MTSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12MTSU 4th & 6 at CLT 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:38CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:32MTSU 4th & 12 at CLT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:03CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:53MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:02MTSU 4th & 3 at CLT 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:20CLT 4th & 3 at MTSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:52CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−1.6
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:07MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:50CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 32, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:21CLT 4th & 1 at MTSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−3.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:29MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 32, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:22CLT 4th & 14 at MTSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−1.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:04MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:46CLT 4th & 6 at MTSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:53MTSU 4th & 4 at CLT 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−5.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:46CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 21, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:02CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:23MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:11CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:50MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:21MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:2127% → 28%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
72.9%
Chris Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+13
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 13 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
72.9%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+11
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 11 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Quinton Patten for 10 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+18
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 18 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Quinton Patten for 3 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
72.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
71.7%
Antonio Zita 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:2272% → 72%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
71.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+26
72.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 26 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 4 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
72.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
72.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
71.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3429% → 28%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
71.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 10Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
71.5%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
71.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
71.7%
Bailey Rice punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0672% → 71%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
72.0%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-4
72.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 42Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
71.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
70.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Grant DuBose at the Charl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2929% → 30%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
70.9%
Chris Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Charl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
70.8%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
70.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
70.8%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+8
71.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Quinton Patten for 8 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
70.1%
Bailey Rice punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1070% → 69%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-7
70.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Miguel Jackson and Amir Siddiq for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 17
OWN 2
+4
70.2%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+5
69.7%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+5
69.2%
ULBRICH, Kyle punt 42 yards to the CLT47, DUBOSE, Grant return 25 yards to the MTS28 (DAVIS, Jalen), clock 01:05. PENALTY CLT Running Into the kicker on WHITEHEAD, Bryson enforced 5 yards from the MTS11 to the MTS16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+11
69.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 yds , Grant DuBose returns for 11 yds to the Charl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:5132% → 39%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
68.2%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+6
68.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jake Clemons for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+9
67.9%
Shadrick Byrd run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
67.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 15 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
67.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+16
67.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 16 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
67.2%
Xavier Williams run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 1 yd for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:3963% → 71%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
63.2%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+11
64.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
64.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 4 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+20
64.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 20 yds to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
65.5%
Frank Peasant run for 13 yds to the Charl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
65.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Tate Jr.) to the Charl 21Similar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+6
65.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 6 yds to the Charl 15Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+3
65.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the Charl 12Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+3
64.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 3 yds to the Charl 9Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+6
63.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the Charl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.5%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the Charl 1Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.2%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:1034% → 47%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
66.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 8 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
65.5%
Henry Rutledge run for 1 yd to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+9
65.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Quinton Patten for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
50
+3
64.9%
Shadrick Byrd run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
65.0%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the left incomplete intended for SPENCER, Elijah thrown to the MTS30. PENALTY MTS Holding on PATTERSON, Decorian enforced 10 yards from the MTS47 to the MTS37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
65.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 7 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
63.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+3
64.5%
Chris Reynolds run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
62.4%
Chris Reynolds run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
52.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 24 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:5756% → 57%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.4%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
56.3%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
57.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
58.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
58.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 8
50
0
57.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+15
55.0%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the right incomplete intended for SHERMAN, Javonte thrown to the CLT37. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on WHITEHEAD, Bryson enforced 15 yards to the CLT36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
57.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1648% → 48%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
52.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 1 yd to the Charl 3Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+7
51.5%
Chris Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Charl 10Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 2
OWN 10
-2
50.9%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 8Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
52.1%
Bailey Rice punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Yusuf Ali at the Charl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4856% → 57%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
56.1%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
55.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+8
55.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 8 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
57.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+10
57.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 10 yds to the Charl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-7
56.5%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
48.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5352% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.5%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
51.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
50.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
48.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds, downed at the Charl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1752% → 37%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
48.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 8 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
47.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+1
63.3%
Jordan Ferguson 1 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2438% → 41%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
62.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 8 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+17
61.2%
Henry Rutledge run for 17 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
59.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 14 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
59.1%
Johnny Martin III run for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
59.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+13
60.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 13 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
57.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 9 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
57.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
59.0%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-4
59.4%
Xavier Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5264% → 63%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
64.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 6 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
65.2%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
65.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
62.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 44 yds , Grant DuBose returns for no gain to the Charl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:0739% → 40%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
60.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 5 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
59.8%
Shadrick Byrd run for 7 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
59.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Trey Blount for 5 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+21
57.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 21 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
56.8%
Henry Rutledge run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-5
56.9%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Henry Rutledge) to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
58.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
60.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
60.3%
Bailey Rice punt for 21 yds, downed at the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:0162% → 87%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
62.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+4
62.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Taharin Sudderth for 4 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+38
60.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 38 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
67.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 10 yds to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
68.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 34Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
67.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+2
65.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 2 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+10
63.7%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the right incomplete intended for METCALF, Elijah broken up by WHITEHEAD, Bryson at the CLT0. PENALTY CLT Holding on WHITEHEAD, Bryson enforced 10 yards from the CLT32 to the CLT22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
67.8%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the Charl 13Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
87.3%
Frank Peasant run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:2321% → 23%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
79.2%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the left incomplete intended for SPENCER, Elijah broken up by ROSS, Teldrick at the MTS40. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on ROSS, Teldrick enforced 15 yards to the CLT42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
77.9%
Shadrick Byrd run for 6 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
76.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
77.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 8 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
75.9%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the right incomplete intended for RUTLEDGE, Henry broken up by WYATT, Ja'Kerrius at the MTS46. PENALTY MTS Holding on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 10 yards from the MTS44 to the MTS34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.7%
Chris Reynolds pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4986% → 85%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
86.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-9
86.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 20 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Nicholas VattiatoSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+8
84.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
84.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:1817% → 14%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 24Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+27
82.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 27 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
79.0%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
78.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+5
79.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
79.0%
Henry Rutledge run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
76.9%
Chris Reynolds run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
78.7%
Shadrick Byrd run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-5
82.9%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Ashton Gist) to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
86.0%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:5391% → 95%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
90.6%
Frank Peasant run for 16 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
91.7%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+36
92.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 36 yds to the Charl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the Charl 8Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.3%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the Charl 8Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
91.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 4 yds to the Charl 4Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
95.0%
Zeke Rankin 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
96.6%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the left incomplete intended for BYRD, Shadrick thrown to the CLT24. PENALTY CLT Holding on CLEMONS, Jake enforced 10 yards from the CLT22 to the CLT12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 20
OWN 12
0
96.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 20
OWN 12
0
96.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+9
96.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 9 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Chris Reynolds sacked for 0 yards to the Charl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:4697% → 97%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.8%
Darius Bracy run for no gain to the Charl 21Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
96.8%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Charl 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-2
96.7%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:21
Frank Peasant run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+19.4
TD · Q3 11:50
Jordan Ferguson 1 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick)
+15.9
TD · Q2 4:11
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 24 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com