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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 24 at Louisiana Tech 40

LT
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by LAT at MID49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:48: Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:49: Chase Cunningham run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:02: Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 27 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +13.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:11: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 3 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +13.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:51: Willie Roberts 18 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +17.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:39LT 4th & 10 at LT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:23MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13LT 4th & 7 at MTSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:52MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 1 at LT 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−1.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:48LT 4th & 8 at MTSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:44LT 4th & 11 at MTSU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:06MTSU 4th & 2 at LT 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−1.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:02LT 4th & 14 at midfield, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:19MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:05LT 4th & 12 at MTSU 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:12LT 4th & 18 at MTSU 19, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−2.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:12MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 5 at LT 17, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−6.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:25MTSU 4th & 9 at LT 9, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:50LT 4th & 2 at MTSU 20, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:21MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 27, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:24LT 4th & 6 at MTSU 23, up 16
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:39MTSU 4th & 17 at LT 45, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:36MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:40LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:48LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:49MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:02LT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:11MTSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:51LT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1541% → 41%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
40.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
40.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
40.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:39
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
40.7%
Patrick Rea punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1659% → 59%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
40.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-10
40.7%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass up the middle incomplete intended for ALI, Yusuf broken up by DAVIS, Hugh at the LAT44. PENALTY MID Holding on GRAHAM, Jacqui enforced 10 yards from the MID46 to the MID36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+9
40.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 9 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 14:39
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
40.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+7
41.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 7 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:1041% → 43%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
41.1%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+8
41.1%
Marquis Crosby run for 8 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
41.2%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
41.1%
Marquis Crosby run for 10 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
41.2%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+17
41.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Nate Jones for 17 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
41.3%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
41.3%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+30
41.2%
Marquis Crosby run for 30 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
41.4%
Marquis Crosby run for no gain to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
41.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 3 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
41.3%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
43.0%
Jacob Barnes 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3757% → 60%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
42.6%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
42.6%
Frank Peasant run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
42.4%
PEASANT, Frank rush to the left for a gain of 18 yards to the LAT46 (WILLIAMSON, BeeJay). PENALTY MID Holding on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 10 yards from the MID36 to the MID26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+5
42.6%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left complete for 5 yards to TATE JR., Jeremy to the MID31 (CARABIN, Maki). PENALTY LAT Offsides on FISHER, Kershawn enforced 5 yards from the MID26 to the MID31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+69
39.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 69 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:5140% → 45%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
40.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+36
39.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 36 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
44.5%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 41 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4857% → 56%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
43.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Snap enforced (TEAM) to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+3
43.5%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
43.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
43.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+5
44.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 55 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 5 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:0444% → 50%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.3%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
44.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+44
43.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 44 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
45.1%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tahj Magee for 8 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
45.5%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
45.1%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
45.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
45.5%
Smoke Harris run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
50.3%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5351% → 57%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
49.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
48.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+11
47.5%
Frank Peasant run for 11 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
47.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
47.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Kershawn Fisher) to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
46.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
47.4%
DJ Riles run for 6 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+3
48.3%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the LaTch 5Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
48.9%
run for 3 yds to the LaTch 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
47.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
47.4%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the LaTch 2Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.6%
Chase Cunningham run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9FG
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:5546% → 48%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+57
46.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 57 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
48.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-1
48.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
48.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
48.3%
Jacob Barnes 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5951% → 54%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
50.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
50.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
50.5%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
50.4%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
49.5%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
54.2%
Jacob Barnes 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:3848% → 47%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.4%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
52.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 15 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
50.7%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
50.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+11
51.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 11 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
49.6%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+12
48.3%
Terry Wilkins run for 12 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
48.3%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+3
48.3%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+4
49.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 2
OPP 15
0
53.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:0458% → 74%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
57.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+20
58.1%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Tre Harris for 20 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.2%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
59.3%
Landry Lyddy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+15
58.1%
LYDDY, Landry pass up the middle incomplete intended for HARRIS, Tre broken up by WOOD, Zaylin at the LAT44. PENALTY MID Personal Foul on WYATT, Ja'Kerrius enforced 15 yards from the LAT41 to the MID44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
60.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
60.7%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Cyrus Allen for no gain to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+11
59.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 11 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
73.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 27 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:5130% → 46%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
69.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ Riles for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
50
+15
67.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Cecil Singleton Jr.) to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
65.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 15 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
67.1%
Chase Cunningham run for 9 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
54.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 3 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
62.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LAT at LAT23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:5042% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.1%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
58.8%
Chase Cunningham pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1964% → 65%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
64.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+14
64.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 14 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
64.4%
Parker McNeil sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+5
63.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
64.6%
Parker McNeil pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:0040% → 23%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
60.2%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
60.1%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-18
77.2%
Willie Roberts 18 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:4323% → 25%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.5%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right incomplete intended for LANE, Jaylin thrown to the MID45. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on ROBERTS, Willie enforced 15 yards to the MID40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
75.7%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
74.9%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
75.2%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
74.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 18 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
75.0%
Chase Cunningham pass intercepted for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Myles Brooks) to the LaTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:0681% → 80%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
81.0%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 14 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
81.2%
Cyrus Allen run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-7
81.1%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Marquis Crosby fumbled, recovered by LaTch Marquis Crosby , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 14
50
0
80.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 14
50
0
79.9%
Patrick Rea punt for 34 yds, downed at the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4320% → 18%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.3%
DJ Riles run for no gain to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
80.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ Riles for 4 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
80.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ Riles for no gain to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
82.3%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1485% → 90%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
85.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-1
85.0%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-10
85.7%
MCNEIL, Parker pass to the right complete for 6 yards to HARRIS, Tre caught at the MID0 and advanced to the MID0, TOUCHDOWN LAT, score nullified by penalty, clock 03:52 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY LAT Holding enforced 10 yards from the MID6 to the MID16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+1
85.6%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
89.6%
Jacob Barnes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
88.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23FG
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2391% → 95%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
91.1%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-9
91.1%
Parker McNeil sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 18
OPP 19
0
90.7%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 18
OPP 19
+36
94.6%
Jacob Barnes 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24FG
23 plays · 66 yds · 6:478% → 7%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
92.6%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
92.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 11 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
92.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
92.2%
run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
93.0%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
93.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+19
93.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 19 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+18
92.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 18 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
91.9%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
91.9%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
92.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+10
92.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the LaTch 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
94.7%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
95.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
-12
95.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nicholas Vattiato) to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 32
+11
95.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rasheed Lyles) to the LaTch 11Similar
Q4 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
94.7%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the LaTch 9Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
93.4%
Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:3595% → 97%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.9%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
95.0%
Parker McNeil run for 11 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
95.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 34 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
95.4%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bert Hale) to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+3
95.3%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+14
95.3%
Charvis Thornton run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
97.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 2
OPP 20
0
97.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:294% → 3%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
96.1%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left complete for 2 yards to PEASANT, Frank caught at the MID17 and advanced to the MID22 (SINGLETON, Cecil). PENALTY MID Personal Foul enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the MID20 to the MID10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+9
96.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 9 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
96.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
95.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
96.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Keylan Rutledge) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5798% → 99%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
97.9%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-2
98.4%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+3
99.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 6
OPP 23
0
98.9%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:453% → 2%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for no gain to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
97.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
97.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
97.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 14 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
97.4%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Khiry Morrison for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 17
OPP 45
0
97.8%
DJ Riles run for no gain to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
98.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 17
OPP 45
-7
98.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.4%
[NH] Kneel down by LAT at MID49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Willie Roberts 18 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)
+17.1
TD · Q2 1:02
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 27 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q2 0:11
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 3 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com