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RICE

Rice 42 at Louisiana Tech 41

LT
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:13 · Austin McCready punt for 45 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 4 yds to the Rice 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 88Home team on offense+3.1Pregame prior−3.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:58: TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 9 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +16.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 10:30: TJ McMahon run for 64 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +36.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:57: Luke McCaffrey run for 17 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +30.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:37: Landry Lyddy pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 19 yds for a TD, (Landry Lyddy pass to Tre Harris for Two-Point Conversion) — LT win probability +56.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +18.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, tied
    Close callWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:58RICE 4th & 8 at LT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21RICE 4th & 19 at RICE 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:21LT 4th & 3 at RICE 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:48LT 4th & 12 at RICE 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:50RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:51LT 4th & 12 at LT 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:46RICE 4th & 3 at LT 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:47LT 4th & 11 at LT 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:43LT 4th & 2 at RICE 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:16LT 4th & 6 at RICE 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:13LT 4th & 4 at LT 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:14LT 4th & 1 at RICE 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−2.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−10.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00LT 4th & 7 at RICE 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−12.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 1 at LT 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−5.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−7.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:32RICE 4th & 16 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:40LT 4th & 4 at LT 26, up 6
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:24LT 4th & 5 at LT 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:18RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−8.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00LT 4th & 10 at LT 35, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 10.9 ptsWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%−10.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:26LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:06RICE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:49LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:24RICE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:38LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:58RICE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:30RICE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−1.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:57RICE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−2.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:37LT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.3%−10.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 39 yds · 7:0257% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.7%
Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the Rice 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
42.7%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
42.7%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
42.7%
Micah Barnett run for 9 yds to the Rice 37 Micah Barnett fumbled, recovered by Rice for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.7%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
42.7%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+13
42.7%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 13 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
42.7%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
42.7%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Cameron Montgomery for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+11
42.7%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 11 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
42.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
42.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-1
42.7%
Kobie Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
44.4%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3245% → 49%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
44.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
45.2%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+49
45.1%
Marquis Crosby run for 49 yds to the Rice 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
49.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0552% → 50%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
48.3%
RICE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (TJ McMahon) to the Rice 17Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-1
48.5%
TJ McMahon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 16Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
48.8%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+16
49.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 44 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 16 yds to the Rice 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:3350% → 52%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
50.2%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
50.1%
Tre Harris run for 3 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+4
49.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+8
49.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-9
50.3%
Parker McNeil sacked by Chris Conti for a loss of 9 yards to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+7
49.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Nate Jones for 7 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
49.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
51.7%
Buck Buchanan 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.2%
Ari Broussard run for 7 yds to the Rice 32 Ari Broussard fumbled, recovered by LaTch Cecil Singleton Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3854% → 55%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
53.6%
Parker McNeil run for 3 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
53.6%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+10
53.0%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
53.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 24Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+5
53.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 5 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
54.9%
Matthew Downing pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1047% → 44%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 6 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
53.0%
Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
53.2%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 10 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
52.6%
Cameron Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Rice 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
52.6%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
53.1%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+27
56.0%
Conor Hunt punt for 40 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 27 yds to the LATECH 31 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5955% → 54%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
54.9%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-2
54.8%
Greg Garner run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 12
OWN 7
0
54.2%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 12
OWN 7
0
54.2%
Austin McCready punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the LaTch 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9FUMBLE
10 plays · 42 yds · 5:2946% → 44%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
53.9%
TJ McMahon run for 15 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
52.9%
Cameron Montgomery run for 9 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
52.9%
Cameron Montgomery run for no gain to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
53.7%
Uriah West run for 4 yds to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
52.9%
Cameron Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+5
56.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 5 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
56.5%
Ari Broussard run for 4 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+5
57.7%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 5 yds to the LaTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
56.3%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the LaTch 1 Ari Broussard fumbled, recovered by LaTch Hugh DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3558% → 59%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
58.2%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+15
57.9%
DOWNING, Matthew pass to the right incomplete intended for ALLEN, Cyrus thrown to the LAT33. PENALTY RIC Pass Interference on FRESCH, Sean enforced 15 yards to the LAT18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
58.9%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-28
58.6%
DOWNING, Matthew pass to the right complete for 28 yards to HARRIS, Tre caught at the LAT38 and advanced to the LAT46 (CHAMBERLAIN, Treshawn). PENALTY LAT Holding on HALE, Bert enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the LAT18 to the LAT9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+1
57.9%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the LaTch 10Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 18
OWN 10
-5
57.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 5Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 23
OWN 5
+12
57.1%
Marquis Crosby run for 12 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
58.9%
Austin McCready punt for 26 yds, downed at the LaTch 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:4140% → 52%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.8%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
60.1%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 9 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
59.4%
Uriah West run for 2 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
48.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 32 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 1:4553% → 56%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
53.2%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+29
54.2%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Smoke Harris for 29 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
56.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the Rice 44Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
57.1%
Matthew Downing run for 7 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
56.7%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+8
55.2%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
58.2%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
58.6%
Marquis Crosby run for no gain to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
57.9%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
56.3%
Buck Buchanan 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by RIC at RIC24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4755% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.6%
Smoke Harris run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
54.4%
Matthew Downing run for 5 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
53.9%
Matthew Downing run for no gain to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+4
55.1%
Austin McCready punt for 45 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 4 yds to the Rice 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:2461% → 73%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
60.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
60.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 7 yds to the Rice 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
60.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the Rice 13Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
73.0%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Nate Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:2130% → 49%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.2%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+45
69.6%
Cameron Montgomery run for 45 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
66.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 9 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
66.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
66.1%
Luke McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
51.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3663% → 78%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
63.4%
Charvis Thornton run for 7 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
63.4%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the Rice 25Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
62.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the Rice 24Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
60.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
63.4%
Matthew Downing sacked by Ikenna Enechukwu for a loss of 10 yards to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+32
77.8%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Tre Harris for 32 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 3:3225% → 46%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
75.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 4 yds to the Rice 15Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
75.6%
Cameron Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Rice 18Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+6
76.5%
Juma Otoviano run for 6 yds to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
75.3%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+66
75.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 66 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
70.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the LaTch 9Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
54.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 9 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:5261% → 74%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+31
60.7%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 31 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
64.1%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
63.0%
RICE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Blake Boenisch) to the Rice 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
66.4%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-1
66.4%
Charvis Thornton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+4
65.5%
Matthew Downing run for 4 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+41
74.3%
Jacob Barnes 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:2834% → 30%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.7%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
66.3%
Cameron Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+15
63.7%
MCMAHON, TJ pass to the right incomplete intended for BRADLEY, Jack broken up by BROOKS, Myles at the LAT40. PENALTY LAT Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SINGLETON, Cecil enforced 15 yards from the RIC41 to the LAT44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
62.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
62.1%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
62.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for 6 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
64.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-15
64.3%
OTOVIANO, Juma rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the LAT33 (CARABIN, Maki). PENALTY RIC Block below the waist enforced 15 yards from the LAT35 to the RIC50 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 16
50
0
69.6%
Conor Hunt punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5277% → 79%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.3%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
77.0%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Tre Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-1
76.4%
Matthew Downing sacked by De'Braylon Carroll for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
79.0%
Austin McCready punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
42.4%
TJ McMahon run for 64 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0647% → 44%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.7%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.3%
Matthew Downing run for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
45.6%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
43.6%
Austin McCready punt for 40 yds, downed at the Rice 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 5:2756% → 93%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
43.6%
Cameron Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
41.5%
Juma Otoviano run for 5 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
40.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 5 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
40.4%
Cameron Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+2
40.4%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
39.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 20 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
37.5%
Luke McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
37.4%
TJ McMahon run for no gain to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
7.4%
Luke McCaffrey run for 17 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:2014% → 66%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.9%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
13.6%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
12.7%
DOWNING, Matthew pass up the middle complete for 4 yards to ALLEN, Cyrus caught at the LAT30 and advanced to the LAT30 (FRESCH, Sean). PENALTY RIC Offsides enforced 5 yards from the LAT26 to the LAT31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
13.6%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
15.2%
Matthew Downing run for 6 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
17.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
50
0
17.6%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
50
+7
16.8%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 7 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+6
18.3%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
10.7%
Matthew Downing sacked by Trey Schuman for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 39Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+5
9.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 5 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+15
9.9%
DOWNING, Matthew pass to the right incomplete intended for ALLEN, Cyrus thrown to the RIC15. PENALTY RIC Roughing the Passer on SCHUMAN, Trey enforced 15 yards from the RIC34 to the RIC19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
66.2%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 19 yds for a TD, (Landry Lyddy pass to Tre Harris for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1948% → 45%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.8%
RICE Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Rice 20Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
52.5%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
53.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
54.5%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.4%
Conor Hunt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1858% → 55%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
57.7%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Marquis Crosby for 1 yd to the LaTch 36Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
58.5%
Landry Lyddy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-1
58.5%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
55.4%
Landry Lyddy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.1%
Cameron Montgomery run for 2 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+19
41.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 19 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 34%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.0%
Landry Lyddy pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
24.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the Rice 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
21.8%
Landry Lyddy run for 5 yds to the Rice 18Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+18
34.2%
Tre Harris 18 Yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:37
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 19 yds for a TD, (Landry Lyddy pass to Tre Harris for Two-Point Conversion)
+56.2
TD · Q4 10:30
TJ McMahon run for 64 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)
-36.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-34.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com