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WKU

Western Kentucky 35 at Middle Tennessee 17

MTSU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-13.1MTSU 3.9%Austin Reed pass complete to JoshuaSimon for 1 yd for a TD, (BraydenNarveson KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 10 · Q3 2:04
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:04 · Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−36.6Score differential−17.0Pregame prior−4.7Garbage-time factor−8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +5.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:39: Kye Robichaux run for 14 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +11.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:15: Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +9.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:04: Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +13.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:44: Darius Thomas 42 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick) — WKU win probability +4.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:25MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 19, up 7
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:46WKU 4th & 3 at MTSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:15MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:05WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:21MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:21MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:19WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 27, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:19MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:50MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:41MTSU 4th & 17 at WKU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−6.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:02WKU 4th & 14 at WKU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−3.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:53MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:36MTSU 4th & 7 at WKU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:56WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 28, up 11
    Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:04MTSU 4th & 5 at WKU 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.4%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:04WKU 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−10.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:48MTSU 4th & 10 at WKU 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:52WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.8%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:02MTSU 4th & 20 at MTSU 29, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:07WKU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.3
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:43WKU 4th & 7 at MTSU 12, up 26
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:10MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:39WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:15WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:04WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:44WKU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3534% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
33.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 6 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
33.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
33.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
33.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
34.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
34.4%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 14 Kye Robichaux fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Teldrick RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
35.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 14 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:4665% → 63%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
35.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 9 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
35.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
35.0%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
35.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
35.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
35.1%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
36.6%
Tom Ellard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5037% → 38%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
36.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Joe Ervin for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+5
36.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 5 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
36.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 5 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
37.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:4062% → 60%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
37.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
37.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
37.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
37.4%
Austin Reed run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
37.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
37.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
37.1%
Austin Reed run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
37.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
40.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3141% → 42%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
41.0%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for GATHINGS, Izaiah thrown to the MTS50. PENALTY WKU Pass Interference on BRATHWAITE, JR., A.J. enforced 15 yards to the MTS41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
41.6%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-1
41.7%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
41.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+23
41.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 50 yds , Jaylen Hall returns for 23 yds to the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1058% → 56%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
41.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for no gain to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
42.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
42.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-2
43.7%
Tom Ellard punt for 48 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4443% → 43%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
43.2%
Chase Cunningham run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
43.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
42.7%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right complete for 14 yards to ALI, Yusuf caught at the MTS27 and advanced to the MTS35 (KEY, Aaron;ALLEN, Talique). PENALTY MTS Holding on GRAHAM, Jacqui declined MTS Personal Foul on FALVEY, Tyler enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the MTS21 to the MTS11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+3
42.6%
Joe Ervin run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
43.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:2557% → 63%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
43.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
43.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 16 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
42.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 23 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
41.6%
Jaylen Hall run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
42.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2440% → 40%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
40.1%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
40.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+4
39.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
39.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 54 yds , Jaylen Hall returns for no gain to the WKent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0260% → 59%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
39.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKent 18Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
39.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 9 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
39.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
41.3%
Tom Ellard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0042% → 41%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
41.8%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-10
43.1%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left complete for 6 yards to PEASANT, Frank caught at the MTS35 and advanced to the MTS45 (WEBER, Rome). PENALTY MTS Holding on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 10 yards from the MTS39 to the MTS29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+2
41.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-3
41.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
40.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:1160% → 62%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
40.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 7 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+15
39.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 15 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for no gain to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
39.3%
Austin Reed run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
37.8%
Austin Reed pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1843% → 42%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
42.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
42.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+12
41.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 12 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
42.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
41.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 54 yds, downed at the WKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:1160% → 73%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
40.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 6 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
40.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
40.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 7 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
39.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+13
40.0%
Austin Reed run for 13 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
38.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
37.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+8
38.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
37.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 25 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
26.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 14 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 1:5132% → 35%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
31.6%
Frank Peasant run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
32.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+32
33.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 32 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
35.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
35.4%
Chase Cunningham run for 5 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-5
34.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Izaiah Gathings) to the WKent 25Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+8
34.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face mask (8 yards) (JaQues Evans) to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
35.9%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 16 fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Joe ErvinSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
35.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-1
32.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Chase Cunningham for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 17Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
35.4%
Zeke Rankin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:3264% → 62%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
36.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Austin Reed) to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+21
36.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 21 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
34.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
35.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
36.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+1
37.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
38.2%
Tom Ellard punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
33.5%
Joe Ervin run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:4063% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
36.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 6 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
35.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
36.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+37
35.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 37 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
33.5%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+26
33.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 26 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.9%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:1726% → 25%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.2%
Chase Cunningham run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
27.0%
Chase Cunningham run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
27.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+4
26.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+6
26.6%
Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
28.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Joe Ervin for 14 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
28.7%
Joe Ervin run for 3 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
30.3%
Terry Wilkins run for no gain to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
28.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+12
24.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 12 yds Yusuf Ali fumbled, recovered by WKent Talique Allen MIDDLE TENN Penalty, turnover on downs, . PENALTY Tripping on PALMER, Jordan ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4077% → 77%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
22.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 18Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+10
23.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 10 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
22.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
23.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 64 yds, downed at the MTnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5223% → 23%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
23.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Andrew Paige for 4 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+1
23.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Joe Ervin for 1 yd to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+9
22.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
23.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Dalvin Smith) to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
25.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 8
50
+3
26.1%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
26.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
22.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:0081% → 96%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+47
19.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 47 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
18.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.7%
Austin Reed run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.0%
Austin Reed run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1610% → 9%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
10.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Dalvin Smith) to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
11.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 9 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
12.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Joe Ervin for 4 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
11.7%
Joe Ervin run for no gain to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
11.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
9.6%
Terry Wilkins run for no gain to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
9.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, downed at the WKent 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:5695% → 98%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
4.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 7 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 3
OWN 12
0
3.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for no gain to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+4
3.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 4 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
3.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+6
3.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 6 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
3.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
3.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
3.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 8 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 3 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
3.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
3.4%
Austin Reed run for 5 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
2.3%
Austin Reed run for no gain to the WKent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27INT TD
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:085% → 1%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
5.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Ethan Ellis) to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-42
0.5%
Darius Thomas 42 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:321% → 0%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
0.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Joe Ervin for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-10
0.4%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase scrambles to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the MTS49, out of bounds. PENALTY MTS Holding on ERVIN, Joe enforced 10 yards from the MTS43 to the MTS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 16
OWN 33
-4
0.4%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 20
OWN 29
0
0.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 20
OWN 29
+5
0.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds , Jaylen Hall returns for 5 yds to the WKent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 29FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
0.4%
Jakairi Moses run for 5 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
0.4%
Jakairi Moses run for 5 yds to the WKent 38 Jakairi Moses fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Devyn CurtisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 30TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
0.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+10
0.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 10 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
0.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Andrew Paige for 7 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+9
0.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
0.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Sterling Porcher) to the WKent 13Similar
Q4 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
0.4%
Joe Ervin run for 2 yds to the WKent 11Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
0.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
0.3%
Izaiah Gathings 11 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 31DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
0.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
0.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
0.3%
Austin Reed run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
0.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Personal Foul (Parker Hughes) to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
0.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+1
0.2%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+1
0.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 32END OF GAME
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
0.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 14 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
0.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
50
0
0.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Terry Wilkins for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
50
-21
0.1%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Aaron Key for a loss of 21 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:04
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q2 2:39
Kye Robichaux run for 14 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q3 12:15
Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com