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Louisiana Tech 27 at North Texas 47

UNT
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:39 · Austin McCready punt for 33 yds, downed at the NoTex 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+19.6Home team on offense+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:15: Ayo Adeyi run for 92 yds for a TD, (Chris Cayton KICK) — UNT win probability +10.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 10:10: Parker McNeil pass complete to Tahj Magee for 34 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +5.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:34: Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Cayton PAT BLOCKED) — UNT win probability +8.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:59: Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +8.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:19: Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 58 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +12.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39LT 4th & 17 at LT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:35LT 4th & 7 at UNT 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:22LT 4th & 4 at LT 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 34, up 11
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:22LT 4th & 7 at LT 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:10UNT 4th & 3 at LT 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:35UNT 4th & 3 at LT 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:34UNT 4th & 1 at LT 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:52UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:47LT 4th & 6 at UNT 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:19LT 4th & 3 at LT 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:02UNT 4th & 5 at LT 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−9.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:29LT 4th & 11 at LT 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:41LT 4th & 19 at UNT 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:18UNT 4th & 3 at LT 3, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:54UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:52UNT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:15UNT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:10LT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:34UNT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:11LT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:59UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:19LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:18UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2130% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
70.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
70.4%
Parker McNeil sacked by Mazin Richards for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
70.4%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 38
-4
70.4%
Parker McNeil sacked by Mazin Richards for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
70.2%
Austin McCready punt for 33 yds, downed at the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:4570% → 71%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
70.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 24 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+42
70.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 42 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Cayton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:1929% → 30%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
70.6%
Marquis Crosby run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
70.7%
HARRIS, Smoke rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the LTU39 (DAVIS, KD). PENALTY LTU Holding on HEBERT, Griffin enforced 10 yards from the LTU37 to the LTU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 20
OWN 27
-10
70.8%
CROSBY, Marquis rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the LTU26 (RICHARDS, Mazin). PENALTY LTU Holding on ELLIS, Isaac enforced 10 yards from the LTU27 to the LTU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 30
OWN 17
+25
70.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 25 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
70.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+9
70.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
70.5%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tahj Magee for 13 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
70.4%
Greg Garner run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
70.3%
Parker McNeil run for 1 yd to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
70.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
69.7%
Buck Buchanan 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:3770% → 73%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
70.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+8
70.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 8 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
70.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 16 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.0%
run for 1 yd to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
70.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-5
70.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+51
73.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 51 yds for a TD, (Chris Cayton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3028% → 26%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.4%
Cyrus Allen run for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
71.9%
Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
72.1%
Tre Harris run for 6 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
71.8%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
73.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
73.7%
Austin McCready punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6Uncategorized
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
76.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+10
76.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 10 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
77.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
76.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
2 plays · 5 yds · 1:3277% → 77%
Q1 1:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
76.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 5 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
76.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2826% → 25%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Tahj Magee run for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.6%
Marquis Crosby run for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
74.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
75.5%
Austin McCready punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
86.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 92 yds for a TD, (Chris Cayton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0519% → 26%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.2%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.3%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 15 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
80.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 5 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+9
80.0%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
79.7%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 6 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
79.5%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
79.8%
Parker McNeil run for 6 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
74.0%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tahj Magee for 34 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:3681% → 90%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
80.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 21 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
81.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
81.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 6
50
+3
81.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+4
80.5%
Austin Aune run for 4 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
81.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
81.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 12 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
81.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
81.7%
JOHNSON, Isaiah rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the LTU29 (HALL, Deshon). PENALTY UNT Holding on BLAIR, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the LTU31 to the LTU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+17
81.3%
Kaylon Horton run for 17 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
83.0%
Damon Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+14
82.5%
Kaylon Horton run for 14 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
83.4%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
82.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Cayton PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:1915% → 24%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
84.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 16 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
84.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+74
84.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 74 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
82.1%
Greg Garner run for 4 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.1%
Greg Garner run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.3%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:5783% → 81%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
83.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 11 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
83.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
83.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 3
50
+11
83.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 11 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
84.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
83.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 11 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.6%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
81.3%
Austin Aune pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1420% → 19%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.4%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.1%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
81.4%
Greg Garner run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0879% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
78.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 23 Ikaika Ragsdale fumbled, recovered by NoTex Manase MoseSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
77.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
77.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 45 yds, downed at the LaTch 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:5421% → 26%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+31
78.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 31 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
77.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+13
76.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 13 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
76.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tahj Magee for 7 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+11
76.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Nate Jones for 11 yds to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.2%
Greg Garner run for no gain to the NoTex 3Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
76.2%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd to the NoTex 2Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
78.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 6Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
73.9%
Jacob Barnes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4877% → 91%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
77.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
76.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 16 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
79.4%
run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 7
50
-5
79.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Jett Duncan) to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+5
78.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 7
50
+16
78.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaiden Cole) to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
79.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+10
78.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 10 yds to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
81.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+20
90.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:3613% → 24%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
87.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 10 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.0%
Marquis Crosby run for no gain to the LaTch 24Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
87.3%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 9 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
86.1%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
86.6%
Parker McNeil sacked by Tom Trieb and Roderick Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+17
88.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 17 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+58
76.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 58 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:1782% → 89%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
82.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
83.8%
ADEYI, Ayo rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UNT38 (CARABIN, Maki), clock 00:00. PENALTY UNT Holding on MOSE, Manase enforced 10 yards from the UNT36 to the UNT26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+12
82.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 12 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
83.9%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for GUMMS, Var'Keyes thrown to the LTU42. PENALTY LTU Unnecessary Roughness on BROOKS, Myles enforced 15 yards from the UNT38 to the LTU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+29
85.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 29 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
85.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
85.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
84.4%
run for no gain to the LaTch 13Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
89.3%
Ethan Mooney 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3316% → 12%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.5%
Tre Harris run for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
82.3%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
83.8%
Parker McNeil run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.0%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
83.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tahj Magee for 4 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-5
82.7%
Parker McNeil sacked by Roderick Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 36Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
88.3%
Austin McCready punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
98.5%
Kaylon Horton run for 66 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:373% → 2%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.8%
Parker McNeil sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
96.9%
Marquis Crosby run for 7 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
96.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 17 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
96.7%
MCNEIL, Parker pass to the right complete for 0 yards to HARRIS, Smoke caught at the LTU40 and advanced to the LTU44 (CROSBY, Keelan), out of bounds. PENALTY LTU Holding on JONES, Nate enforced 10 yards from the LTU44 to the LTU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+15
96.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Fatafehi Vailea) to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
96.6%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
96.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 7 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+9
96.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 9 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
96.1%
Parker McNeil sacked by Roderick Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-7
96.6%
sacked by Mazin Richards for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+3
96.7%
Parker McNeil run for 3 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 19
OPP 42
+16
97.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 16 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:2399% → 100%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+50
99.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 60 yds to the NORTHTEXAS 14 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaylon Horton) to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
99.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 32 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+12
99.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 12 yds to the LaTch 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 6Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the LaTch 6Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.8%
Ethan Mooney 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:320% → 0%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.6%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:19
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 58 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q2 13:15
Ayo Adeyi run for 92 yds for a TD, (Chris Cayton KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q3 4:59
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com