2022 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2022 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:00 · Haden Carlson pass incomplete to Nate Jefferson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 13:01: Jared Sackett 44 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +0.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:41: Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 42 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:30: Kevorian Barnes run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:14: Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTSA win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:46: Kejon Owens run for 15 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 8:52FIU 4th & 7 at UTSA 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.3%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%68% to makePunt3.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 8:52UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt95.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:13UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 44, tiedClose callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:35FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q1 1:38FIU 4th & 20 at UTSA 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.210% to convertField goal6.4%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q2 13:01UTSA 4th & 20 at FIU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.5%−0.410% to convertField goalTheir call91.9%62% to makePunt91.1%−0.8average punt
- Q2 11:33FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 29, down 3Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it8.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:27FIU 4th & 6 at UTSA 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.5%40% to convertField goal6.4%−0.142% to makePunt6.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:37FIU 4th & 13 at UTSA 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.320% to convertField goalTheir call7.0%68% to makePunt6.0%−1.0average punt
- Q2 0:52FIU 4th & 23 at FIU 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 0:30UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 22, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.838% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q2 0:09FIU 4th & 5 at UTSA 39, down 14Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%−0.142% to convertField goal6.8%36% to makePunt6.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 12:37UTSA 4th & 3 at FIU 24, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call93.6%−0.368% to makePunt91.4%−2.5average punt
- Q3 5:44FIU 4th & 7 at UTSA 7, down 21Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%−0.228% to convertField goal2.6%91% to makePunt0.0%−2.6average punt
- Q3 4:19UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 13, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q3 2:40FIU 4th & 11 at UTSA 41, down 21Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%−0.127% to convertField goal2.4%−0.232% to makePunt2.5%average punt
- Q4 12:24FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 46, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 9:56UTSA 4th & 3 at FIU 30, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%52% to convertField goal99.6%−0.156% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:46FIU 4th & 19 at FIU 39, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 6:00UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 22, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 6:00FIU 4th & 6 at UTSA 42, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.140% to convertField goal0.3%30% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q2 9:27UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:41UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:30UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:14UTSA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick99.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:46FIU Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1MISSED FG15 plays · 57 yds · 6:012% → 3%
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
2.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 7 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
2.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 5 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
2.2%
Grayson James sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
2.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 9 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3997% → 96%
Q1 8:52
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-5
3.4%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Martinez,Frankie) 5 yards from UTSA27 to UTSA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+10
3.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 10 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
4.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FlaIn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:384% → 4%
UTSADrive 4FUMBLE3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4996% → 96%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
4.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+14
4.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
4.5%
Frank Harris sacked by Jamal Potts for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 41 Frank Harris fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Davon Strickland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 2:085% → 5%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
4.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Dean Patterson for 23 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
5.0%
Grayson James sacked by Nick Booker-Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
5.3%
Daton Montiel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joshua Cephus at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6FG11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3795% → 94%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
5.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 8 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+7
5.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
5.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Frank pass incomplete short middle to Clark,De'Corian, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Cole,Adrian) 12 yards from UTSA23 to UTSA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
5.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
5.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
5.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 31 yds to the FlaIn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-12
5.5%
Frank Harris sacked by Jordan Guerad for a loss of 12 yards to the FlaIn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:216% → 7%
UTSADrive 8TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0693% → 95%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
6.6%
PENALTY FIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from UTSA30 to UTSA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
6.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+15
6.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Frank pass incomplete short middle to Cardenas,Oscar PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Hall,Dorian) 15 yards from FIU47 to FIU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
6.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds to the FlaIn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
6.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 13 yds to the FlaIn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
5.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9FG12 plays · 51 yds · 3:505% → 7%
Q2 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
5.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-5
5.8%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Bock II,John) 5 yards from UTSA31 to UTSA36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+15
5.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 15 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
6.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 3 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5693% → 95%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
6.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
6.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+42
4.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 42 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 1:435% → 5%
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+18
5.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 18 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
5.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Dean Patterson for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
5.6%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 2 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
5.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Intentional Grounding Face Mask ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 23
OWN 38
0
5.3%
Daton Montiel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Joshua Cephus at the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2295% → 95%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
4.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 0:216% → 6%
UTSADrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0996% → 96%
UTSADrive 15MISSED FG10 plays · 51 yds · 2:2395% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
5.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+25
5.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 25 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
5.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 17 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
4.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16INT4 plays · 12 yds · 1:056% → 6%
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
5.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 1 yd to the FlaIn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD6 plays · 44 yds · 2:0295% → 98%
FIUDrive 18DOWNS7 plays · 73 yds · 3:393% → 3%
Q3 9:23
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+55
3.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 55 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
4.0%
Jalen Bracey run for 4 yds to the TexSA 12 Jalen Bracey fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Jalen BraceySimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
3.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 5 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2598% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20DOWNS6 plays · 11 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
2.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 11 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD8 plays · 59 yds · 3:2699% → 100%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
1.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 7 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+17
1.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 17 yds to the FlaIn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+14
1.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds to the FlaIn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:501% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23FUMBLE8 plays · 28 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
FIUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 2:100% → 0%
UTSADrive 25PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 26TD13 plays · 70 yds · 5:140% → 1%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
0.2%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Ross Fournet for 5 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+15
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Carlson,Haden pass incomplete short left to Jefferson,Nate PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Frazier,Zah) 15 yards from UTSA42 to UTSA27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
0.2%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Artez Hooker for 7 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:30
Kevorian Barnes run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
-3.1
TD · Q2 2:41
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 42 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q4 14:14
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-1