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WKU

Western Kentucky 28 at UTSA 31

UTSA
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:30 · Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin Smith
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior+7.4Home team on offense+11.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+3.7Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:45: Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 18 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +9.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:45: Joshua Cephus 0 Yd Run (Jared Sackett Kick) — UTSA win probability +9.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:11: Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 18 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +22.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 11:46: Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 12 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +14.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:58: Kye Robichaux run for 33 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +24.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Defense has -2 timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 7WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 5:48UTSA 4th & 8 at WKU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:20WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:24UTSA 4th & 8 at WKU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:15WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 2 at WKU 31, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:23WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:30WKU 4th & 15 at UTSA 39, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    19.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:09UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:30WKU 4th & 14 at UTSA 42, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    17.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:07UTSA 4th & 1 at WKU 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.2%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−7.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:46WKU 4th & 5 at UTSA 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:41WKU 4th & 7 at UTSA 34, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%−1.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−7.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:56UTSA 4th & 2 at WKU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−7.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:32UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:30WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:45WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:44UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:45UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:11WKU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:46UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:58WKU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2874% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.5%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
73.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
73.5%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+5
73.5%
Frank Harris run for 5 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
73.5%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
73.5%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+11
73.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 11 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
73.5%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+5
73.5%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the WKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
74.2%
Frank Harris run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:5726% → 29%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
73.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 3 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
73.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 13 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
73.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
73.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
73.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Kye RobichauxSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+38
73.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 38 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
73.3%
Austin Reed run for 12 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.2%
Austin Reed run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3572% → 71%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.1%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
72.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
72.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
72.7%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+1
72.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 1 yd to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
72.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Gavin SharpSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
71.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:2829% → 29%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
71.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+8
71.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 8 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
71.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robichaux,Kye rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WKU21 (Bell II,Trumane) PENALTY UTSA Offside (Robinson,Jimmori) 5 yards from WKU22 to WKU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 5
OWN 27
0
70.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+11
71.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 11 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
70.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-5
70.6%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Goode,Mark) 5 yards from WKU43 to WKU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
71.0%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the WKent 39Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
71.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
70.6%
Tom Ellard punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
15 plays · 52 yds · 4:5670% → 70%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
70.4%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+7
70.7%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
70.7%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
70.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
70.5%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+4
69.7%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
70.5%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+18
70.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 18 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
71.7%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-5
71.6%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Maka,Ahofitu) 5 yards from WKU36 to WKU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
71.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
69.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 3:3931% → 44%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
68.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the WKent 12Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+17
68.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 17 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
68.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 4 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
67.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+11
68.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
67.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+24
67.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 24 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
66.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
56.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 18 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 4:5459% → 72%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
59.0%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-5
61.7%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Davis,Kevin) 5 yards from UTSA14 to UTSA09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+6
62.0%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+23
61.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 23 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
62.8%
Trelon Smith run for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
63.8%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+17
64.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 17 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
65.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 14 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
65.1%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the WKent 12 Trelon Smith fumbled, recovered by WKent Frank HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+9
65.1%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Brodric Martin) to the WKent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.1%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:2936% → 37%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.4%
Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
64.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
64.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+3
63.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 3 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+17
63.4%
Tom Ellard punt for 45 yds , Joshua Cephus returns for 17 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 1:1569% → 74%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
68.4%
Frank Harris run for 6 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+13
68.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Karch GardinerSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
70.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
70.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
70.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
70.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+9
68.8%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+49
74.0%
Jared Sackett 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3730% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 1 yd to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
69.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
70.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q3 14:23
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
71.7%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Joshua Cephus at the TexSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:3872% → 83%
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
72.0%
Trelon Smith run for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
73.0%
Frank Harris run for 7 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+7
73.4%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
73.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 15 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
73.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 11 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
73.9%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the WKent 8Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
82.9%
Joshua Cephus 0 Yd Run (Jared Sackett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:0522% → 16%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
78.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
78.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 8 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
77.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-15
77.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass complete deep left to Corley,Malachi for 26 yards to the UTSA08 (Chattman,Clifford) PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Corley,Malachi) 15 yards from UTSA34 to UTSA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 25
OPP 49
+8
79.6%
Austin Reed run for 8 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+2
83.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
84.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2184% → 83%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.5%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
83.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+5
82.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 5 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
83.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:3917% → 15%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+36
83.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 36 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
81.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+15
82.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short left to Corley,Malachi PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Chattman,Clifford) 15 yards from WKU47 to UTSA38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
80.8%
Austin Reed run for no gain to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
80.9%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Britton,Gunner) 5 yards from UTSA38 to UTSA43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+5
81.8%
Austin Reed run for 5 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+11
83.0%
Austin Reed run for 11 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 9
OPP 37
-5
83.8%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Goode,Mark) 5 yards from UTSA37 to UTSA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
84.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:2387% → 87%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
86.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Trelon rush left for 7 yards loss to the UTSA35 (Smith,Derrick; Brathwaite, Jr.,A.J.) PENALTY UTSA Holding offsetting WKU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+23
86.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 23 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
87.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 9 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+11
86.5%
Trelon Smith run for 11 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
86.2%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the WKent 15Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
86.6%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the WKent 11Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
85.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 5 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
87.3%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the WKent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:4912% → 39%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
87.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 17 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
85.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 18 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
84.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 16 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
83.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 7 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+1
82.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+6
84.2%
Austin Reed run for 6 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
61.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 18 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:2279% → 93%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
79.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 31 yds to the WKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
93.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 12 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4811% → 36%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
89.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 14 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
88.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 13 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
87.1%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Britton,Gunner) 5 yards from UTSA48 to WKU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
88.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
89.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for no gain to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+10
89.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 10 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+10
88.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 10 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
64.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 33 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:0777% → 80%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
76.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
76.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+24
74.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 24 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
80.4%
Brenden Brady run for 10 yds to the WKent 39 Brenden Brady fumbled, recovered by WKent Derrick SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:0531% → 32%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
69.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
67.2%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
67.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
50
+3
66.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 3 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+12
69.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 12 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
66.4%
Austin Reed run for 4 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
65.9%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
66.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
66.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
68.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21END OF GAME
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:4183% → 96%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
83.0%
Trelon Smith run for 14 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
85.7%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
85.8%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 8
50
+6
87.8%
Frank Harris run for 6 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+2
88.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 2 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
90.9%
F. Harris takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-1
90.6%
F. Harris takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-1
95.9%
F. Harris takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:58
Kye Robichaux run for 33 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-24
TD · Q4 12:11
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 18 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-22.7
TD · Q4 11:46
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 12 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com