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CONN

UConn 33 at Florida International 12

FIU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGSAFETYTDEnd of GameFG+1.6FIU 16.8%Chase Gabriel 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 26 - HOME 10 · Q3 4:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:06 · Chase Gabriel 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense−18.7Score differential−10.4Pregame prior−5.0Garbage-time factor−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:35: Victor Rosa run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +8.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:03: Noe Ruelas 26 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +4.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Noe Ruelas 35 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:45: Lexington Joseph run for 47 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +7.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:58: Cale Millen pass complete to Zion Turner for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CONN win probability +11.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:08CONN 4th & 1 at FIU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:59FIU 4th & 12 at CONN 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59FIU 4th & 12 at CONN 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:35FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:16CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:56FIU 4th & 20 at CONN 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:03CONN 4th & 8 at FIU 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:11CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:45FIU 4th & 2 at CONN 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:06FIU 4th & 6 at CONN 8, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:29CONN 4th & 11 at FIU 40, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46FIU 4th & 5 at CONN 5, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:16FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:21FIU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:28FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 6:34CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:35CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:45FIU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:58CONN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:56CONN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FIUDrive 1FUMBLE
12 plays · 53 yds · 3:0435% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 2 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
34.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 13 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
34.7%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 1 yd to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
34.7%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jalen BraceySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+11
34.7%
Grayson James run for 11 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
34.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Ross Fournet for 19 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
34.7%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Hudson Jr.,Lyndell) 5 yards from CON29 to CON34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+5
34.7%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 5 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
34.7%
Kris Mitchell run for 2 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+5
36.3%
run for 5 yds to the UConn 25 fumbled, recovered by UConn Jackson MitchellSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+5
36.3%
run for 5 yds to the UConn 25 fumbled, recovered by UConn Jackson MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2264% → 66%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.9%
Devontae Houston run for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
35.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 9 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
35.8%
Devontae Houston run for 30 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
35.6%
Victor Rosa run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
35.5%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
35.6%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
37.0%
Robert Burns run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
36.4%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Justin JolySimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
36.5%
Devontae Houston run for 10 yds to the FlaIn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
36.4%
Devontae Houston run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 5Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
33.6%
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3INT
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:3535% → 35%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.6%
Lexington Joseph run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
34.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 8 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
34.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+26
35.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 26 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
35.9%
Lexington Joseph run for 3 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-5
35.9%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Hobdy-Lee,Shamar) 5 yards from CON29 to CON34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
35.7%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Ross FournetSimilar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 12
OPP 34
0
35.0%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Dean PattersonSimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
34.5%
Grayson James pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
34.5%
Grayson James pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:2466% → 75%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
34.2%
Devontae Houston run for 5 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
33.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 8 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
33.8%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Kevens ClerciusSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
33.9%
Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 9
50
+21
34.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 21 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
33.5%
Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+11
32.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 11 yds to the FlaIn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
32.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Devontae Houston for 6 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+2
33.1%
Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+11
33.6%
Zion Turner run for 11 yds to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
25.4%
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5430% → 29%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
30.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 17 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
30.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 4 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+4
30.3%
Grayson James run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
30.4%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for no gain to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
29.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Victor Rosa at the UConn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0774% → 75%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
25.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Houston,Devontae rush middle for 80 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:23 PENALTY CON Holding (Haynes,Christian) 10 yards from CON20 to CON10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
25.4%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the UConn 10Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+9
25.5%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 9 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+6
26.1%
Zion Turner run for 6 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
24.9%
George Caratan punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FlaIn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2029% → 27%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
29.4%
Lexington Joseph run for 28 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
30.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Dean Patterson for 4 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-15
30.3%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 18
OPP 35
0
29.7%
Lexington Joseph run for no gain to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 18
OPP 35
-15
29.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun James,Grayson pass complete short left to Fairweather,Rivaldo for 2 yards to the CON33 (Bouyer-Randle,Brandon) PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Bracey,Jalen) 15 yards from CON35 to CON50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 33
50
+13
28.6%
Kris Mitchell run for 13 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
26.7%
Daton Montiel punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Victor Rosa at the UConn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8FG
15 plays · 87 yds · 4:5376% → 85%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
24.2%
Devontae Houston run for 13 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
23.2%
Zion Turner pass complete to Devontae Houston for 2 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+55
23.2%
Devontae Houston run for 55 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
21.5%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
21.5%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Kylish HicksSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+9
22.8%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 9 yds to the FlaIn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
21.8%
Devontae Houston run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 11Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
21.8%
Robert Burns run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.8%
Aaron Turner run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
21.8%
Zion Turner sacked by Shaun Peterson Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
18.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
14.9%
Noe Ruelas 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
27.1%
Grayson James pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10FG
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:4787% → 92%
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
12.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Turner,Zion sacked for loss of 3 yards to the FIU10 (Hill,Demetrius) PENALTY CON Personal Foul (Rosa,Victor) 15 yards from FIU07 to FIU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
+5
13.5%
Zion Turner run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
8.3%
Noe Ruelas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4988% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.7%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UConn 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
11.7%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Brandon NiemenskiSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
12.2%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Aaron TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
12.5%
George Caratan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FlaIn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:2618% → 25%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
17.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 10 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for no gain to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
18.5%
Grayson James sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+9
17.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 9 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+47
25.2%
Lexington Joseph run for 47 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4779% → 92%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.2%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 1 yd to the UConn 24Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
21.4%
Devontae Houston run for 3 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
21.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 10 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+61
20.7%
Victor Rosa run for 61 yds to the FlaIn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.1%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 4Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
19.3%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 5Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.1%
Cale Millen pass complete to Zion Turner for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:4414% → 17%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
13.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 4 yds to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+26
13.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 26 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
14.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun James,Grayson pass incomplete short left to Wilson Jr.,EJ PENALTY CON Holding (Brinson,D'Mon) 10 yards from CON37 to CON27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
15.6%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 5 yds to the UConn 22Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
15.6%
Kris Mitchell run for no gain to the UConn 22Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+10
15.2%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 10 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
15.6%
Grayson James run for 1 yd to the UConn 11Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
15.6%
Grayson James run for 3 yds to the UConn 8Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
15.2%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jalen BraceySimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
16.8%
Chase Gabriel 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:3788% → 91%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
12.5%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 13 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
11.7%
Robert Burns run for 7 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
11.5%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
11.5%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
11.4%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+9
11.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 9 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
8.1%
Zion Turner sacked by Keegan Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+3
8.3%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+2
8.4%
Zion Turner pass complete to Victor Rosa for 2 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
8.9%
George Caratan punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:4311% → 8%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
11.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 8 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+6
11.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 6 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
11.7%
Lexington Joseph run for no gain to the FlaIn 21Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
11.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 6 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+23
11.9%
Lexington Joseph run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
50
-3
13.4%
Grayson James sacked by Collin McCarthy for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+46
12.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Dean Patterson for 46 yds to the UConn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
15.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 5 yds to the UConn 2Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
15.4%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UConn 5Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
14.5%
Grayson James pass incomplete to EJ Wilson Jr.Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.3%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Dean PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17SF
7 plays · -5 yds · 3:2494% → 95%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
6.0%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the UConn 6Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-3
6.0%
No Huddle Burns,Robert rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CON12 (Hill,Demetrius; Masses,Hezekiah) PENALTY CON Holding (Fortin,Christopher) 3 yards from CON06 to CON03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+18
6.0%
Robert Burns run for 18 yds to the UConn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
5.9%
Zion Turner run for 4 yds to the UConn 17 Zion Turner fumbled, recovered by UConn Victor RosaSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+1
6.0%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 15
OWN 16
-5
6.2%
PENALTY CON False Start (Lundt,Chase) 5 yards from CON16 to CON11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 20
OWN 11
0
5.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:556% → 4%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
5.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
6.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 4 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
6.5%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Kris MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
6.3%
Grayson James run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.4%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Kris MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
6.3%
Grayson James run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
50
0
6.4%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 6
50
0
4.1%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Dean PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:2597% → 99%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
50
+1
3.1%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
2.8%
Robert Burns run for no gain to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+49
0.7%
Cale Millen run for 49 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.8%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 4 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
0.8%
Grayson James pass incomplete to EJ Wilson Jr.Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
0.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 12 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
0.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 6 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
0.9%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Lexington JosephSimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+2
0.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 2 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
0.7%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Lexington JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
0.5%
Kneel down by UConn at FIU50 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
50
-2
0.4%
Kneel down by UConn at CON48 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:58
Cale Millen pass complete to Zion Turner for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-11.2
TD · Q2 13:35
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q3 11:45
Lexington Joseph run for 47 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com