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UTSA

UTSA 45 at Middle Tennessee 30

MTSU
2022 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2022 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:30 · Chase Cunningham pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense−21.7Pregame prior−0.9Score differential−9.3Garbage-time factor−12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:09: Darius Bracy run for 53 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 9:53: Trelon Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:22: Frank Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:52: Frank Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +14.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:32: Jordan Branch 0 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:32MTSU 4th & 8 at UTSA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:29MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:26UTSA 4th & 10 at MTSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:14MTSU 4th & 3 at UTSA 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:15UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 20, up 10
    Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:30MTSU 4th & 7 at UTSA 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:12UTSA 4th & 6 at MTSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00MTSU 4th & 10 at UTSA 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:08MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:37MTSU 4th & 11 at UTSA 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−7.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:27MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−3.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:30MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:19MTSU 4th & 10 at UTSA 14, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:11UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:20UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:09MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:53UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:22UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:52UTSA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:32MTSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:42UTSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:2834% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 34 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
34.3%
Jaylin Lane run for 3 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-1
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
34.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
35.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2165% → 66%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
34.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+18
34.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 18 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
34.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 11 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
34.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 43 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4235% → 34%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
34.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 1 yd to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
34.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
34.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 yds , Joshua Cephus returns for no gain to the TexSA 29 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:0366% → 66%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
34.5%
Chris Carpenter run for 8 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+5
34.4%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
34.5%
HARRIS, Frank pass to the left incomplete intended for CLARK, De'Corian thrown to the MTS35. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on PATTERSON, Decorian enforced 15 yards to the UTS44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
34.2%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+36
34.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 36 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
34.1%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
34.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+14
34.2%
Frank Harris run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
34.1%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
34.1%
Frank Harris sacked by Deidrick Stanley II for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
34.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
34.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offsides (Jalen Davis) to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
33.9%
Jared Sackett 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1234% → 34%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
34.5%
Chase Cunningham run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
34.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
34.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 9 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-5
34.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+3
34.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
34.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joshua Cephus at the TexSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5966% → 66%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
34.0%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+6
33.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
33.8%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+10
33.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 57 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 10 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:2333% → 41%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
33.2%
Chase Cunningham run for no gain to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
33.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Quaterrius Tolbert for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+9
33.2%
Chase Cunningham run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
33.8%
Darius Bracy run for no gain to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
33.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
33.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
34.0%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+38
40.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 38 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3262% → 68%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
38.2%
Brenden Brady run for 19 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
37.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 16 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
36.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
36.4%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
31.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 28 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Devyn Curtis) declined, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:0433% → 41%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
33.0%
Darius Bracy run for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
32.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+53
40.8%
Darius Bracy run for 53 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:1061% → 69%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
38.8%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+7
39.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 7 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
39.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
37.4%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.8%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:1633% → 36%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
32.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 8 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
33.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 3 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
33.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 18 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
34.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 13 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
34.4%
Chase Cunningham run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
34.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
33.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
35.6%
Zeke Rankin 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:0268% → 80%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
32.4%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+15
32.0%
HARRIS, Frank pass to the right incomplete intended for CEPHUS, Joshua thrown to the UTS46. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on FLUELLEN, Tra enforced 15 yards to the UTS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
30.7%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+19
31.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 19 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
30.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-14
30.3%
Frank Harris sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 14 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 24
OWN 43
+13
32.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 13 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 11
OPP 44
+5
31.8%
DEAN, Lucas punt 44 yards to the MTS0, Touchback, clock 04:12. PENALTY MTS Running Into the kicker on MENCY, Ralph enforced 5 yards from the MTS44 to the MTS39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+9
30.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
29.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 25 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.8%
Frank Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1725% → 23%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
24.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+2
24.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 2 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
22.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 60 yds, downed at the TexSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5680% → 80%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-10
20.2%
Frank Harris sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 20
OWN 1
+6
20.2%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 14
OWN 7
+10
20.9%
Frank Harris run for 10 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+23
20.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 23 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:4325% → 28%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
25.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
25.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 8 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+17
25.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 17 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
25.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
25.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
24.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
27.5%
Zeke Rankin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0873% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
26.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
27.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 7 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
26.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
26.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 11 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
25.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
25.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (Frankie Martinez) to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
25.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
25.5%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+20
25.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 20 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
25.3%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
25.4%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
25.8%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
25.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
25.3%
QB Keeper HARRIS, Frank rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the MTS4 (CURTIS, Devyn;FERGUSON, Jordan). PENALTY UTS Holding on HAYNES, Terrell enforced 10 yards from the MTS7 to the MTS17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+16
25.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Trelon Smith for 16 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.8%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4414% → 13%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.7%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
13.7%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass up the middle incomplete intended for GATHINGS, Izaiah thrown to the UTS45. PENALTY UTS Pass Interference on FORTUNE, Nicktroy enforced 15 yards to the MTS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
14.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for no gain to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
14.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-1
14.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
12.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18INT
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:1390% → 94%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
9.6%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
9.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 15 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
8.9%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
9.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+10
9.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Trelon Smith for 10 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
8.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (Terrell Haynes) to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+4
9.0%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+14
9.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 14 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
8.6%
Joshua Cephus pass complete to Frank Harris for 9 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
5.7%
Frank Harris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 4:189% → 14%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
9.3%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 1 Chase Cunningham fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Chase CunninghamSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+12
9.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 12 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
9.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 24 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
10.2%
Chase Cunningham run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+15
10.6%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for METCALF, Elijah thrown to the UTS25. PENALTY UTS Pass Interference enforced 15 yards to the UTS44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
9.3%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 10 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+10
8.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 10 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+26
8.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 26 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
9.8%
Yusuf Ali run for 1 yd to the TexSA 17Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+12
9.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 12 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
9.8%
Jaylin Lane run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 6Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
9.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
9.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Tyler Falvey) to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
9.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
13.9%
Zeke Rankin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20INT TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:5793% → 84%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
6.9%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
6.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+11
7.2%
Frank Harris run for 11 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
6.8%
Brenden Brady run for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.3%
Jordan Branch 0 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:2982% → 90%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
18.6%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
19.3%
Frank Harris run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
17.3%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
16.3%
Brenden Brady run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
50
+4
15.5%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
10.2%
Frank Harris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 32 yds · 3:3316% → 13%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
16.0%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
15.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+15
13.6%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left intercepted by HARMANSON, Trevor at the MTS21 intended for GATHINGS, Izaiah. Harmanson return for 21 yards to the MTS0, TOUCHDOWN UTS, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:27. PENALTY UTS Roughing the Passer on ROBINSON, Jimmori enforced 15 yards from the MTS14 to the MTS29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
15.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
14.6%
Chase Cunningham run for no gain to the MTnSt 29 Chase Cunningham fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Chase CunninghamSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+9
13.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+6
15.8%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
17.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Encroachment on COLEMAN, Jacob enforced (Jacob Coleman) to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+6
15.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
16.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 4 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-15
17.1%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right complete for 18 yards to LANE, Jaylin caught at the UTS33 and advanced to the UTS33, End of Play. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on LANE, Jaylin enforced 15 yards to the MTS34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 20
OWN 34
+11
13.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
12.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:4893% → 99%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
7.0%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
5.2%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
4.8%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
4.7%
Trelon Smith run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
4.5%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
1.4%
Brenden Brady run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:081% → 1%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
1.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+27
0.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 27 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
1.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 24 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
1.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
1.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
1.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+9
1.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 9 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
1.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dadrian Taylor) to the TexSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:52
Frank Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q4 10:32
Jordan Branch 0 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)
+9.5
TD · Q2 3:22
Frank Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com