Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 28 at North Texas 45

UNT
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:55 · Riley Thompson punt for 49 yds, downed at the NoTex 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Home team on offense+18.9Score differential+6.7Pregame prior−1.8Garbage-time factor+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:36: Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 25 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +18.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:24: Teja Young 64 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick) — FAU win probability +16.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:56: Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +16.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:23: Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +14.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:44: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 13 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +9.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:05FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:07UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:51FAU 4th & 11 at UNT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:22FAU 4th & 6 at UNT 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:29UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:41FAU 4th & 7 at UNT 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:04FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:14UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:19FAU 4th & 20 at FAU 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:56UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:44FAU 4th & 5 at UNT 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−3.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:55FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:31UNT 4th & 2 at FAU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:59UNT 4th & 4 at FAU 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:53FAU 4th & 1 at UNT 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:09UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:17UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:46FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:22UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:36UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:24FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:09FAU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:56UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:23UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:44FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5559% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.9%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
40.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
41.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:4841% → 44%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
41.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Kaylon Horton for 8 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+7
41.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 7 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
41.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
41.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 12 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
41.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+20
41.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 20 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
41.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
44.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 25 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3157% → 58%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
43.3%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
43.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 10 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
43.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 21 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
42.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+8
43.2%
Larry McCammon run for 8 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+11
43.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 11 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
42.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 8 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
42.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 12 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3443% → 43%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
43.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-10
43.7%
ADEYI, Ayo rush up the middle for no gain to the UNT38 (MCRAE, Jaleel). PENALTY UNT Holding on BLAIR, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the UNT38 to the UNT28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
43.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+2
42.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 2 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
42.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1657% → 56%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
42.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 7 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
42.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
42.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
42.6%
LaJohntay Wester run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
42.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
43.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Holding Holding on HINTON, Dorian (Teja Young) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
44.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:5544% → 52%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+34
44.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 34 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
45.6%
run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
45.8%
run for 18 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
45.8%
run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
45.8%
Stone Earle run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
45.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 1 yd to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
45.8%
Stone Earle run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
47.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offsides (Latrell Jean) to the FlAtl 2Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:3450% → 49%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
50.4%
Larry McCammon run for 18 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
49.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
49.5%
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+16
49.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jordan Young for 16 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
48.3%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
48.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+2
49.8%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
51.2%
Morgan Suarez 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5353% → 52%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
52.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
52.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for no gain to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
51.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
51.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9INT TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0748% → 40%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
52.0%
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
51.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
50.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
50.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-58
59.7%
Ridge Texada 58 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4139% → 38%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
60.8%
run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+17
60.6%
Larry McCammon run for 17 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
59.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
60.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
59.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
62.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 42 yds, downed at the NoTex 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 97 yds · 2:0563% → 84%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
62.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
62.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+53
63.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 53 yds to the FlAtl 32 Ayo Adeyi fumbled, recovered by NoTex for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
65.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+25
83.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 25 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2821% → 18%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
79.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+7
80.3%
Larry McCammon run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
80.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
82.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlAtl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13INT TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4086% → 69%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
86.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-64
69.4%
Teja Young 64 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:0468% → 74%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
68.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+11
68.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 11 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
68.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-5
69.1%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right complete for 14 yards to BURNS, Roderic caught at the UNT44 and advanced to the FAU48 (ADAMS, Armani), out of bounds. PENALTY UNT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BROWN, Cole enforced 5 yards from the UNT38 to the UNT33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
73.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+5
74.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 5 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
73.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:0528% → 39%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
72.7%
N'Kosi Perry run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
72.1%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+32
72.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 32 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
69.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+35
61.0%
Larry McCammon 35 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Morgan Suarez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:5863% → 82%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
62.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
62.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+10
61.4%
Austin Aune run for 10 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
64.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 8 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
65.0%
run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
-2
65.0%
Austin Aune sacked by Latrell Jean for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+6
63.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+28
63.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 28 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
65.3%
run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+13
65.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:2821% → 21%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 5 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
77.3%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 4:047% → 6%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
92.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
92.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
92.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
92.2%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
92.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 6 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
92.2%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Fatafehi Vailea and Kadren Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
92.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
92.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 20
OWN 41
+5
95.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds , Roderic Burns returns for 5 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
93.6%
ADAWAY III, Oscar rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UNT25 (WHEELER, Jaden;WILLIAMS, Eddie). PENALTY UNT Holding on DUNCAN, Jett enforced 10 yards from the UNT21 to the UNT11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:2394% → 96%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+9
93.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 9 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+1
93.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-2
95.9%
Austin Aune sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
96.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:124% → 13%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
96.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jordan Young for 11 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.0%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+20
96.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 20 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
95.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 13 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
96.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
96.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
96.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+13
87.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 13 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:5791% → 93%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
91.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+16
91.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
91.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+12
92.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 46 Ayo Adeyi fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Eddie WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4612% → 7%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
88.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+4
89.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jordan Young for 4 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
88.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
90.0%
Riley Thompson punt for 49 yds, downed at the NoTex 6Similar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
92.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) to the NoTex 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 7:5693% → 99%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+20
92.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 20 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
93.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
93.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 6 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+14
93.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 14 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
93.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 6
50
+2
93.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
93.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+5
92.7%
RODRIGUEZ, Bernardo punt 30 yards to the FAU18, fair catch by WESTER, LaJohntay. PENALTY FAU Running Into the kicker on TOOMBS, Dwight enforced 5 yards from the FAU48 to the FAU43 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
93.6%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
93.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 5 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
96.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+3
96.1%
Austin Aune run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
96.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
97.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+2
97.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
98.5%
Ethan Mooney 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:062% → 1%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 12 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
97.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 21 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
97.6%
N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
97.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+14
97.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 14 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
97.2%
PERRY, N'Kosi pass to the left incomplete intended for YOUNG, Jordan thrown to the UNT3. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on TEXADA, Ridge enforced at the spot of the foul for 16 yards to the UNT9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
97.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 8 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.6%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Jake Roberts) to the NoTex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2699% → 100%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the NoTex 2Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+5
99.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+38
99.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 38 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
99.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 27 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:36
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 25 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q2 3:24
Teja Young 64 Yd Interception Return (Morgan Suarez Kick)
-16.6
TD · Q3 9:56
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com