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RICE

Rice 27 at Houston 34

HOU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+4.4HOU 74.8%Bubba Baxa 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 10 · Q2 0:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:58 · Bubba Baxa 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+24.3Home team on offense−1.7Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score differential−1.0Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:13: Ari Broussard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +9.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:08: TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 52 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +15.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:19: Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — HOU win probability +10.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:44: Christian VanSickle 43 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +9.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:34: Nelson Ceaser 11 Yd Fumble Return (Bubba Baxa Kick) — HOU win probability +35.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:04RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:15RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:45RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:07HOU 4th & 23 at HOU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:58HOU 4th & 4 at RICE 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:14RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.4%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:38RICE 4th & 8 at HOU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:57HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.0%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:44RICE 4th & 15 at HOU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−4.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−15.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:18HOU 4th & 8 at RICE 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−8.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−20.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:24HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:00HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:19RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:13RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:14HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:08RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:19HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:34HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 5:5410% → 11%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
90.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 4 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q1 14:58
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-1
90.4%
Ari Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 5Similar
Q1 14:58
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+14
90.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 14 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
90.4%
Ari Broussard run for 5 yds to the Rice 24Similar
Q1 14:58
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
90.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 4 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 14:58
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
90.4%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Boden Groen for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q1 14:58
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
90.4%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 14:58
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-1
90.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Micah Barnett for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 37Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+4
88.8%
Conor Hunt punt for 46 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for 4 yds to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3489% → 88%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
88.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
88.8%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
88.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
88.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1512% → 12%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
88.1%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 14 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
88.1%
TJ McMahon run for 3 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
88.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Dean Connors for no gain to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
88.2%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+17
87.6%
Conor Hunt punt for 51 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for 17 yds to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 5:1588% → 89%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
87.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
87.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-10
87.7%
HENRY, Ta'Zhawn rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the HOU46 (MORRISON, Myron). PENALTY HOU Holding on JOHNSON, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the HOU42 to the HOU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+10
87.2%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the right complete for 10 yards to DELL, Nathaniel caught at the HOU43 and advanced to the HOU42 (TAYLOR, Gabriel;FRESCH, Sean). PENALTY RIC Holding on FRESCH, Sean enforced 10 yards from the HOU32 to the HOU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
87.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
87.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+17
87.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 17 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
87.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 11 yds to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
88.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
88.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 19 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:1512% → 12%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.9%
Uriah West run for 7 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
87.5%
TJ McMahon run for 4 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.7%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
87.8%
TJ McMahon run for 1 yd to the Rice 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
88.0%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+5
87.9%
Conor Hunt punt for 46 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for 5 yds to the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:2388% → 88%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
87.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 16 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
87.9%
Clayton Tune pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:0314% → 19%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.4%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
86.6%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 15 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
85.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offsides (D'Anthony Jones) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.4%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 2:0784% → 82%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
83.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 14
OWN 23
-1
83.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 15
OWN 22
-8
83.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Josh Pearcy for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 23
OWN 14
0
81.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:5419% → 30%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
80.8%
Cameron Montgomery run for 7 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+15
80.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 15 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+34
79.8%
Kobie Campbell run for 34 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
79.2%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.0%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:0873% → 75%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
73.0%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
73.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+13
72.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
74.3%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the right complete for 52 yards to DELL, Nathaniel caught at the RIC20 and advanced to the RIC3 (WILLIAMS, Marcus), out of bounds. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on DELL, Nathaniel enforced 15 yards to the HOU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+5
72.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+6
70.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+15
70.2%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the left incomplete intended for DELL, Nathaniel thrown to the RIC35. PENALTY RIC Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Gabriel enforced 15 yards to the RIC44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
73.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 18 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
74.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
72.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 5 yds to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
70.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
74.8%
Bubba Baxa 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5328% → 29%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
72.4%
MCMAHON, TJ pass to the left complete for 6 yards to MCCAFFREY, Luke caught at the RIC24 and advanced to the RIC24, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, RIC Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the RIC18 to the RIC13. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+17
72.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 17 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
71.7%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
71.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Rice 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:4673% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
72.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 16 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
74.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+14
75.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
83.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 40 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0620% → 36%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for no gain to the Rice 25Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.1%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 12 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
79.5%
Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the Rice 38Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
79.2%
Cameron Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
79.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 5 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
79.4%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
63.8%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 52 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4167% → 81%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
67.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 23 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
69.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 8 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+36
70.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 36 yds to the Rice 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
72.5%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 17Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 14
OPP 17
0
71.8%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the left incomplete intended for TRAHAN, Christian thrown to the RIC6; QB hurried by SCHUMAN, Trey. PENALTY HOU Holding on SYLVESTER, Trevonte declined HOU Block below the waist on HENRY, Ta'Zhawn enforced 15 yards from the RIC17 to the RIC32 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 29
OPP 32
+28
70.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 28 yds to the Rice 4Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
80.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:4123% → 33%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.3%
Cameron Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
76.5%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
77.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 13 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
74.9%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
75.6%
RICE Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on LONG, John ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
76.6%
MCMAHON, TJ pass up the middle incomplete intended for ESDALE, Isaiah thrown to the HOU42. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on HOGAN, Alex enforced 15 yards to the HOU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
74.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 16 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
73.2%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
73.2%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
74.8%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Cameron Montgomery for no gain to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
66.7%
Christian VanSickle 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4172% → 72%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
72.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
72.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
73.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 9 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
73.0%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
72.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1338% → 47%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
61.6%
Luke McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
60.1%
Uriah West run for 4 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
60.0%
Ari Broussard run for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+10
62.1%
MCMAHON, TJ pass to the left incomplete intended for ESDALE, Isaiah thrown to the HOU10. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jayce enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the HOU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
59.9%
Isaiah Esdale run for 1 yd to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
59.9%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-6
62.1%
TJ McMahon sacked by Trimarcus Cheeks for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+43
53.1%
Christian VanSickle 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 6:2656% → 66%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
55.8%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
57.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
57.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Lance Robinson) to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
56.6%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+28
55.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 28 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
64.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 15 yds to the Rice 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
64.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Johnson) to the Rice 24Similar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 17
OPP 24
+12
63.9%
Clayton Tune run for 12 yds to the Rice 12Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-10
64.7%
HENRY, Ta'Zhawn rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the RIC10 (TITRE, Quent). PENALTY HOU Holding on SYLVESTER, Trevonte enforced 10 yards from the RIC12 to the RIC22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
63.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for no gain to the Rice 22Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+7
58.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 7 yds to the Rice 15Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
66.1%
Bubba Baxa 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:3644% → 9%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
56.4%
Cameron Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Rice 23Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-12
55.9%
TJ McMahon sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the Rice 11Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+11
91.2%
Nelson Ceaser 11 Yd Fumble Return (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:268% → 12%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.8%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 8 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
90.1%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
90.6%
MCMAHON, TJ pass to the right incomplete intended for MCCAFFREY, Luke thrown to the RIC45. PENALTY HOU Personal Foul on CEASER, Nelson enforced 15 yards from the RIC33 to the RIC48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
89.8%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 17 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.3%
TJ McMahon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:4195% → 96%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
96.6%
Clayton Tune run for 8 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
96.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
96.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
96.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 85 yds · 0:246% → 15%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+19
93.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 19 yds to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 15 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.3%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+51
92.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 51 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
84.9%
TJ McMahon pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:34
Nelson Ceaser 11 Yd Fumble Return (Bubba Baxa Kick)
+35.3
TD · Q3 9:08
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 52 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)
-15.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com