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UNT

North Texas 34 at Memphis 44

MEM
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:21 · Joe Doyle punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoTex 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+23.5Score differential+10.6Garbage-time factor+10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:39: Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +5.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:35: Jaylon Allen 39 Yd Interception Return (Chris Howard Kick) — MEM win probability +7.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:38: Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +10.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:20: Xavier Cullens 0 Yd Interception Return (Chris Howard Kick) — MEM win probability +11.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:50: Austin Aune pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 41 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +4.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:10MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21UNT 4th & 3 at MEM 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:38UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:25UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:57MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:03UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:12UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:19UNT 4th & 5 at MEM 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:05MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:34UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:52MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.6
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:06UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:36MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:39MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:55UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:26MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:31UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:21MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:16MEM 4th & 2 at UNT 18, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:30MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:12UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:50MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:39MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:35MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:38UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:20MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:33MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:50UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:31UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4383% → 82%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
82.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
82.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
82.6%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
82.1%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4918% → 19%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
82.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+18
82.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 18 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
82.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
82.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
82.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
81.4%
Ethan Mooney 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3082% → 80%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.5%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
81.5%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
81.6%
Jevyon Ducker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 14
OWN 34
-1
81.4%
Seth Henigan sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
81.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
80.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1320% → 20%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
80.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
80.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
80.6%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
80.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 41 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for no gain to the Memph 29 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0880% → 81%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
80.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 8 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+13
80.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 13 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
80.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
80.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 4 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
80.4%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for IVORY, Javon thrown to the UNT28. PENALTY UNT Offsides on ROACH, Kaghen declined UNT Pass Interference on GADDIE, DeShawn enforced 15 yards to the UNT37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
80.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
80.8%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
80.8%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+11
80.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 11 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
80.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 4 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
80.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1820% → 24%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
80.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 18 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
79.5%
AUNE, Austin pass up the middle incomplete intended for SMART, Jordan thrown to the MEM40. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on RUBIN, Greg enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the MEM44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
79.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+24
79.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Kaylon Horton for 24 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
75.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
77.9%
Seth Henigan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3324% → 23%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
76.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
76.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 6 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-7
76.4%
Austin Aune sacked by Jaylon Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 41Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 11
OWN 41
-5
77.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0376% → 75%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
76.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
76.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
75.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
74.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 62 yds, downed at the NoTex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5424% → 24%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
75.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 8
0
75.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
76.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 8
+16
76.2%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 41 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 16 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:1377% → 80%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
77.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+6
77.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
77.0%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
79.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3322% → 22%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
78.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 7 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
77.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
77.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
77.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
77.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Roderick Brown) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
78.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:3377% → 85%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
77.3%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+12
77.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
77.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 16 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
78.5%
Seth Henigan run for 30 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
79.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 13 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
79.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 7 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+6
79.7%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1517% → 17%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
83.4%
Kaylon Horton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+6
83.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 6 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
83.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Tommy Bush for 15 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
82.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+8
82.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 8 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
82.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
81.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-1
82.3%
Austin Aune run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
83.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1484% → 84%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
84.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 4 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
84.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to John Hassell for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
84.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
83.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 54 yds, downed at the NoTex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:3115% → 15%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
84.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+21
84.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 21 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
83.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
83.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
84.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
84.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4285% → 84%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
84.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
84.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+13
84.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 13 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
84.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 0:5215% → 21%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
85.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 17 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
84.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
84.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
84.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 14 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
82.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 11 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
82.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
82.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 15 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+36
78.8%
Ethan Mooney 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:2519% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
80.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 8 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-39
87.9%
Jaylon Allen 39 Yd Interception Return (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2912% → 11%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
88.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+11
88.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 11 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
88.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
89.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3091% → 90%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
90.5%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jordan Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+6
90.4%
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
90.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
90.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Roderic Burns returns for no gain to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:5811% → 23%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
89.5%
Austin Aune run for 4 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+25
89.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 25 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
88.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 28 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
87.9%
run for 2 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
77.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5984% → 83%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.4%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right complete for 11 yards to SCATES, Joe caught at the MEM36 and advanced to the MEM36 (TEXADA, Ridge). PENALTY MEM Holding on POUNDERS, Makylan enforced 10 yards from the MEM25 to the MEM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
84.1%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
84.2%
Jevyon Ducker run for 4 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
83.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4419% → 17%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
80.8%
Austin Aune run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
80.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 6 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
79.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jordan Smart for 3 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
79.7%
Austin Aune sacked by Wardalis Ducksworth for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 36Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 18
OWN 36
0
81.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+8
82.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 8 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
82.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2984% → 85%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
84.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+9
84.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
84.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 3 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-8
84.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Mazin Richards and Roderick Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
83.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 15
OWN 24
+6
85.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 57 yds , Roderic Burns returns for 6 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26INT TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4017% → 6%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
82.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
93.6%
Xavier Cullens 0 Yd Interception Return (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:436% → 6%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.9%
Austin Aune run for 7 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
93.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
93.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
94.2%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1096% → 95%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
95.5%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
95.4%
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
95.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoTex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:086% → 5%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
94.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
94.7%
run for no gain to the NoTex 9 fumbled, recovered by Memph Xavier CullensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 30TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4096% → 99%
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
96.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:351% → 6%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
98.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 11 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
94.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 41 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 32FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:2796% → 99%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
95.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 8 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+5
96.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
96.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 6 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
96.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
96.2%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
96.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+11
97.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 11 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
97.3%
Asa Martin run for 15 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
97.4%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the NoTex 25Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
97.4%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+2
97.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
98.5%
Chris Howard 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 33TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:372% → 5%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
98.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
50
+3
98.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+34
98.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 34 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
97.6%
AUNE, Austin pass up the middle incomplete intended for BURNS, Roderic thrown to the MEM1. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on HASTINGS, Josh enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the MEM5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.1%
Kaylon Horton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 34END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
96.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 7
50
+11
96.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 11 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:20
Xavier Cullens 0 Yd Interception Return (Chris Howard Kick)
+11.2
TD · Q3 7:38
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 13:35
Jaylon Allen 39 Yd Interception Return (Chris Howard Kick)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com