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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 45 at Miami 31

MIA
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:58 · Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior+44.8Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:20: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +10.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:01: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 69 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +23.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:08: Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +25.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:45: Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 98 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +25.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:34: Scott Payne kickoff for 56 yds , Key'Shawn Smith return for 91 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +15.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:58MTSU 4th & 1 at MIA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:09MTSU 4th & 11 at MIA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:46MTSU 4th & 8 at MIA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11MIA 4th & 1 at MTSU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:52MIA 4th & 5 at MTSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11MIA 4th & 4 at MTSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:33MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:57MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:48MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.5%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:20MIA 4th & 2 at MTSU 6, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:09MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:59MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:32MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:43MIA 4th & 22 at MIA 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−4.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:24MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−6.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:56MIA 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−13.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:59MIA 4th & 5 at MTSU 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:38MTSU 4th & 6 at MIA 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:12MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:37MTSU 4th & 1 at MIA 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:04MTSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:21MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:17MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:20MIA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:01MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:08MIA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:45MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:34MIA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:42MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:05MIA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:425% → 5%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
95.5%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
95.3%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+8
95.2%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
95.1%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
95.0%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyrique Stevenson at the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
94.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted Decorian Patterson return for 2 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:565% → 5%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
94.8%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
94.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+1
94.7%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
94.6%
Zeke Rankin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2195% → 94%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-15
94.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted for a TD Zaylin Wood return for 15 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1194% → 93%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
93.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-2
93.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+11
93.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 11 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 40 Jaylan Knighton fumbled, forced by Jordan Branch, recovered by MTnSt Zaylin Wood , return for a loss of 20 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.1%
Chase Cunningham pass intercepted Kamren Kinchens return for no gain to the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 3:0293% → 92%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+16
93.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 16 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
93.2%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
93.1%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
93.0%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+6
92.6%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
92.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
92.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 5
OPP 21
0
92.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
92.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
92.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
92.1%
Andres Borregales 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:048% → 10%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.7%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
90.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 71 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9DOWNS
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:3890% → 87%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 5 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+11
89.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 11 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Romello Brinson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
89.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
89.0%
Key'Shawn Smith run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+16
88.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 16 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
88.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-3
87.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+5
87.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+4
87.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 4 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OPP 6
0
86.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:4814% → 25%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
85.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+89
85.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 89 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
84.0%
Darius Bracy run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
83.6%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-5
83.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 9 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3279% → 75%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
78.5%
Tyler Van Dyke run for no gain to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
76.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 9 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-10
76.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Will Hutchinson punt for 57 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for no gain to the MTnSt 18 Jaylin Lane fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Jaylin LaneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2829% → 33%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
71.4%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+10
70.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Marquel Tinsley for 10 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
69.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 1 yd to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
68.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Marquel Tinsley for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+4
66.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
67.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brashard Smith at the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
18 plays · 87 yds · 6:3171% → 69%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
71.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+14
69.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 14 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
69.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
68.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
68.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tra Fluellen) to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
69.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+10
66.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 10 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
66.3%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
66.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
65.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
64.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 9 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+14
62.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
62.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Tra Fluellen) to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
60.3%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
59.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
57.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
68.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0335% → 38%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.2%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
65.2%
Chase Cunningham run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
64.2%
Chase Cunningham run for no gain to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
61.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0861% → 60%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
60.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:3063% → 62%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
63.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 11 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
62.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+15
62.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jalen Jackson) to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
64.5%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
63.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
63.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
61.5%
Will Hutchinson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1542% → 43%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
58.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
57.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+1
58.0%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
57.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 59 yds, downed at the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:4257% → 49%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Thaddius Franklin Jr.Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
55.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 6 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
54.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 7 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
54.1%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Jalen Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
51.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaleel SkinnerSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-9
50.7%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 22
OWN 27
+1
48.6%
Will Hutchinson punt for 50 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:2754% → 77%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
45.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+69
22.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 69 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:3529% → 49%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
28.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
28.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+23
27.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 23 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
23.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 39 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.7%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3961% → 64%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
38.5%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Corey Flagg Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
37.8%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
36.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds, downed at the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 67 yds · 3:5238% → 31%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
37.5%
Romello Brinson run for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+12
35.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 12 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+6
35.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
36.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 23 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
37.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
37.7%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
37.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+9
35.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Thaddius Franklin Jr. for 9 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+8
34.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Teldrick Ross) to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
35.5%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.5%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.1%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.7%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
1 play · 98 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+98
5.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 98 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4682% → 98%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
17.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
15.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
14.1%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
14.1%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
12.3%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
10.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 6 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
9.9%
Darius Bracy run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
9.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to AJ ToneySimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+12
9.5%
Chase Cunningham run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
7.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 24 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
6.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.8%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:034% → 9%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
3.7%
Jake Garcia sacked by Marley Cook for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 17
50
+12
3.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Michael Redding III for 12 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
3.6%
Jake Garcia sacked by Zaylin Wood for 0 yards to the MTnSt 38 MIAMI FL Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+8
2.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Michael Redding III for 8 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
3.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
2.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 17 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.4%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
2.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 12 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.9%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1695% → 97%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
5.0%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+14
4.9%
Frank Peasant run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
3.9%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
3.8%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-2
3.1%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+5
3.5%
Chase Cunningham run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:164% → 4%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
4.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
3.8%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
3.8%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
3.5%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Frank Ladson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5898% → 99%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
2.5%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
2.4%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
1.8%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+8
1.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 8 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:08
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+25.4
TD · Q4 14:45
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 98 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-25.1
TD · Q3 8:01
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 69 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-23
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com