2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:30 · Tom Ellard punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:16: Malachi Corley 76 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick) — WKU win probability +0.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:36: Malachi Corley 19 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick) — WKU win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:23: Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 12 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:01: Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
- Q1 13:19FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q1 11:30WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 40, tiedClose callPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it96.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:42FIU 4th & 4 at WKU 46, tiedClose callPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it5.0%48% to convertField goal4.9%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call5.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:14FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 33, down 7Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:02FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 8:23FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:55FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 41, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 1:24FIU 4th & 1 at WKU 49, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:19FIU 4th & 19 at FIU 16, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 6:22WKU 4th & 7 at FIU 12, up 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%86% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 4:40FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 28, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:31FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 60Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:01FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 41, down 60Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:25WKU 4th & 12 at WKU 20, up 60Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 9:30FIU 4th & 5 at WKU 49, down 67Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 8:21FIU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 67Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:39WKU 4th & 17 at FIU 22, up 67Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.113% to convertField goal99.9%72% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:04FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 36, down 67Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 5:16WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:36WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:23WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:01WKU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26WKU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:30WKU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:31WKU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:03WKU Touchdown, up 66 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:20WKU Touchdown, up 73 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:373% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4996% → 96%
FIUDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 4:484% → 5%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
96.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 2 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
96.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 1 yd to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+14
96.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 14 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD5 plays · 94 yds · 1:2695% → 96%
FIUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:025% → 5%
Q1 3:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
95.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Talique Allen at the WKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD7 plays · 84 yds · 3:1495% → 96%
Q1 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
95.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
95.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 28 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 14:564% → 5%
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-8
95.8%
Lexington Joseph run for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaIn 14 Lexington Joseph fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Grayson JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:2696% → 98%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
96.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 1 yd to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+27
96.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 27 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
96.1%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Personal Foul (Dorian Hall) to the FlaIn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+19
97.6%
Malachi Corley 19 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9INT2 plays · 3 yds · 0:183% → 3%
WKUDrive 10TD4 plays · 42 yds · 1:4998% → 98%
Q2 8:23
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
98.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 12 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 3:281% → 1%
Q2 5:48
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Kris Mitchell for no gain to the FlaIn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 10 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 2 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+49
99.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 49 yds to the FlaIn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 20 yds · 2:320% → 1%
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.6%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 4 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+10
99.6%
CARLSON, Haden pass to the left incomplete intended for CHAMBERS, Tyrese thrown to the FIU42. PENALTY WKU Pass Interference on STOUT, Upton enforced 10 yards to the FIU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-10
99.6%
QB Keeper CARLSON, Haden rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the FIU47 (SIMPKINS, Kendrick). PENALTY FIU Holding on PETERSON, Reggie enforced 10 yards from the FIU44 to the FIU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+17
99.7%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 17 yds to the WKent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14TD9 plays · 48 yds · 0:5899% → 100%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 9 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 5 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+6
99.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 6 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 3 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
99.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 4 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
99.5%
REED, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Daewood thrown to the FIU0. PENALTY FIU Pass Interference on COLE, Adrian enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the FIU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
99.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 31 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 5 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+8
99.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
99.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 13 yds to the FlaIn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.8%
BRACEY, Jalen rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the FIU26 (SHAW, Tre). PENALTY FIU Holding on FAIRWEATHER, Rivaldo enforced 10 yards from the FIU25 to the FIU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Daton Montiel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malachi Corley at the WKent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18FG9 plays · 41 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q3 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
99.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 15 yds to the FlaIn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 7 yds to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-5
99.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 4:40
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Daton Montiel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Malachi Corley at the WKent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD3 plays · 51 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
FIUDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 4 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+12
99.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Ross Fournet for 12 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (Nate Jefferson) to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Daton Montiel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malachi Corley at the WKent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Darius Ocean pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 3 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-2
99.9%
Darius Ocean sacked by Latarie Kinsler for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Tom Ellard punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the FlaIn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · 6 yds · 1:220% → 0%
FIUDrive 24PUNT10 plays · 41 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
100.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 2 yds to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+9
100.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Nate Jefferson for 9 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
100.0%
Lexington Joseph run for 10 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Nate Jefferson for 3 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+12
100.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Dean Patterson for 12 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
100.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Nate Jefferson for 5 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Daton Montiel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Malachi Corley at the WKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:14100% → 100%
FIUDrive 26DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 9:16
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+7
100.0%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Percy Courtney Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
100.0%
Darius Ocean pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 25 yds to the FlaIn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:350% → 0%
WKUDrive 29TD8 plays · 82 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
100.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 13 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
100.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 9 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+3
100.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 3 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:36
Malachi Corley 19 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Brayden Narveson Kick)
+1.5
TD · Q1 0:00
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 8:23
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 12 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+0.7