2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:54 · Mitch Jeter 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:48: Jake Clemons 2 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Antonio Zita Kick) — CLT win probability +3.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:43: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 14 yds for a TD — CLT win probability +4.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:29: Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +4.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:25: MarShawn Lloyd run for 14 yds for a TD, (T. Kenion Run For Two-point Conversion) — SC win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:34: MarShawn Lloyd run for 7 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:54SC 4th & 7 at CLT 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.7%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call91.7%91% to makePunt91.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 6:29SC 4th & 1 at CLT 1, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.6%59% to convertField goal80.1%−1.594% to makePunt76.3%−5.3average punt
- Q2 1:29CLT 4th & 8 at SC 43, down 3Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.1%34% to convertField goal15.8%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call15.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:32CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 25, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.5%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q4 10:01CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:11CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 9, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.146% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:48CLT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.6%97% to makeGo for two11.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:52SC Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:29SC Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:25SC Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick91.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call91.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:34SC Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:14SC Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:20SC Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1FG15 plays · 72 yds · 5:0193% → 92%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
93.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 7 yds to the Charl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD14 plays · 90 yds · 7:008% → 12%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
92.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 10 yds to the Charl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
92.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 11 yds to the Charl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
92.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 4 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+17
92.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to ChaVon McEachern for 17 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
92.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 6 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+17
92.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 17 yds to the SCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5689% → 90%
Q1 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
89.2%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (Prince Bemah) to the Charl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4TD15 plays · 81 yds · 5:0211% → 17%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
89.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 5 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
89.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 4 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+4
89.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 4 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+7
88.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 7 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
88.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jake Clemons for 1 yd to the SCaro 39Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+18
88.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 18 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
83.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 14 yds for a TDSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
83.4%
Laros,Aidan kickoff 65 yards to the S. Car00 Legette,Xavier return 23 yards to the S. Car23 fumbled by Legette,Xavier at S. Car23 forced by Turner,B.J. recovered by S. Car Westmoreland,Donovan at S. Car23, End Of Play PENALTY Char Offside (Robinson,Tank) 5 yards from Char35 to Char30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5TD11 plays · 60 yds · 2:5886% → 88%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
85.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 11 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
86.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 16 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
86.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 12 yds to the Charl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
86.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 7 yds to the Charl 3Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
85.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 2 yds to the Charl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 4:5312% → 14%
SCDrive 7FG12 plays · 85 yds · 1:2786% → 89%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
86.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 10 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
86.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 26 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
87.7%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Amir Siddiq for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+40
86.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 40 yds to the Charl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
87.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 6 yds to the Charl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:2814% → 13%
SCDrive 9TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:0787% → 93%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
86.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (Dez Morgan) to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+15
87.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 15 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+12
88.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 12 yds to the Charl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
88.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 4 yds to the Charl 14Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
93.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 14 yds for a TD, (T. Kenion Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10INT4 plays · 13 yds · 1:338% → 9%
SCDrive 11TD2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1193% → 98%
CLTDrive 12INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:163% → 3%
SCDrive 13TD6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0498% → 100%
Q3 8:18
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+27
98.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 27 yds to the Charl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14INT8 plays · 26 yds · 4:150% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15TD10 plays · 54 yds · 4:39100% → 100%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 3 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+17
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 17 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 16 yds to the Charl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+2
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 2 yds to the Charl 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+1
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 1 yd to the Charl 12Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
Shotgun Rattler,Spencer sacked for loss of 1 yard to the Char13 (Siddiq,Amir) PENALTY Char Horse Collar Tackle (Siddiq,Amir) 6 yards from Char12 to Char06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 5 yds · 2:190% → 0%
SCDrive 17INT4 plays · 14 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 10:01
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+11
99.9%
Luke Doty pass complete to Juju McDowell for 11 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD6 plays · 62 yds · 1:390% → 0%
SCDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 43 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
100.0%
Rashad Amos run for 9 yds to the Charl 3 Rashad Amos fumbled, recovered by Charl Jordan AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:390% → 0%
SCDrive 21TD3 plays · 53 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
CLTDrive 22END OF GAME6 plays · 14 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Henry Rutledge run for no gain to the Charl 27 Henry Rutledge fumbled, recovered by Charl Sean Brown , return for 2 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
100.0%
James Foster pass complete to Sean Brown for 9 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:25
MarShawn Lloyd run for 14 yds for a TD, (T. Kenion Run For Two-point Conversion)
+5.4
TD · Q3 8:34
MarShawn Lloyd run for 7 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+5
TD · Q2 9:43
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 14 yds for a TD
-4.7