Try the model
UL

Louisiana 21 at Rice 33

RICE
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Uriah West run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:20: Luke McCaffrey 8 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick) — RICE win probability +6.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: TJ McMahon run for 2 yds to the Rice 30 — UL win probability +6.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 10:20: Bradley Rozner 12 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — RICE win probability +7.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:17: Chris Smith 22 Yd Run (Preston Stafford Kick) — RICE win probability +12.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:59: Ari Broussard 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — RICE win probability +26.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:23UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59RICE 4th & 12 at UL 37, up 1
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:17RICE 4th & 4 at UL 5, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:32UL 4th & 3 at UL 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16UL 4th & 1 at RICE 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:03UL 4th & 23 at UL 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:29UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:23RICE 4th & 3 at UL 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−2.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:32UL 4th & 11 at RICE 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:10UL 4th & 3 at UL 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:31RICE 4th & 1 at UL 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q4 9:17RICE Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:59RICE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
16 plays · 4 yds · 13:2377% → 70%
Q1 13:23
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+40
23.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 46 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 40 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.3%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
28.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (Carlos Rubio) to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
29.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 8 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
29.6%
pass incomplete to Peter LeBlancSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 11:5924% → 31%
Q1 11:59
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
23.6%
Conor Hunt punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
32.7%
Ari Broussard run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
32.7%
pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-5
32.2%
RICE Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
31.4%
pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3INT
5 plays · 3 yds · 10:0775% → 69%
Q1 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
24.9%
Chandler Fields pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
25.0%
Chandler Fields pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
30.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
30.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
31.0%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (John Stephens Jr.) to the LaLaf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 7:1727% → 32%
Q1 7:17
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
26.9%
Christian VanSickle 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
32.4%
TJ McMahon run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
32.7%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+14
32.7%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 14 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
32.7%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Luke McCaffrey, broken up by Trey AmosSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
32.7%
Uriah West run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
32.2%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 5 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 5:3272% → 69%
Q1 5:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
28.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 32 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.0%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
31.0%
RICE Penalty, off-side (Quent Titre) to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
30.4%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Chris Smith, broken up by Trey SchumanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:4728% → 29%
Q1 2:47
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-54
27.9%
Caleb Anderson 54 Yd Interception Return (Preston Stafford Kick)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
28.0%
Uriah West run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
27.7%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 6 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
28.2%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 7 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
28.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4728% → 29%
Q1 0:47
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
27.9%
TJ McMahon pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
27.6%
Cameron Montgomery run for 13 yds to the Rice 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
28.2%
Cameron Montgomery run for 9 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-5
28.9%
TJ McMahon sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
40.3%
TJ McMahon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9Uncategorized
7 plays · 0 yds · 15:0069% → 69%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+20
30.7%
Jacob Kibodi run for 20 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
26.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 6 yds to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
26.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the Rice 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
27.2%
pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+20
27.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 20 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
28.6%
pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.6%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 5:2037% → 40%
Q2 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
36.7%
Luke McCaffrey 8 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
35.2%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+1
35.1%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 1 yd to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+22
33.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 22 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
37.7%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 7 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
38.5%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+7
38.1%
Ari Broussard run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
38.9%
Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+16
38.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 16 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
40.2%
Cameron Montgomery run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-3
40.2%
TJ McMahon sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+12
38.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 12 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
40.2%
Luke McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:0366% → 63%
Q2 3:03
4TH & 23
OWN 31
+8
34.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 55 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 8 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
35.1%
RICE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Sean Fresch) to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
33.4%
Chandler Fields sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 36
0
35.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dre'lyn WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
36.7%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Chris SmithSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 18
OWN 36
-5
37.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal formation (Kam Pedescleaux) to the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:2469% → 68%
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+11
31.5%
Terrence Williams 11 Yd pass from Chandler Fields (Preston Stafford Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
31.1%
Terrence Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+9
31.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 9 yds to the Rice 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 1:0839% → 36%
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+21
38.5%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 21 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
41.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 11 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
41.5%
RICE Penalty, false start (Ethan Onianwa) to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+3
40.1%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Dean Connors for 3 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
40.8%
pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+15
39.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 15 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.9%
pass incomplete to Isaiah EsdaleSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
42.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Kris Moncrief) to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
42.9%
pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
42.9%
RICE Penalty, illegal touching (Luke McCaffrey) to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+31
41.7%
Christian VanSickle 31 Yd Field GoalSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
35.6%
TJ McMahon run for 2 yds to the Rice 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 10:2043% → 49%
Q3 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
43.0%
Bradley Rozner 12 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.1%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Jack Bradley, broken up by Kam PedescleauxSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 7 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
44.5%
Ari Broussard run for 5 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
42.7%
Ari Broussard run for 4 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+14
45.6%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive holding (Marcus Wiser) to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
46.8%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+12
46.7%
TJ McMahon run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
48.5%
pass incomplete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+23
48.4%
Luke McCaffrey run for 23 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
48.5%
Ari Broussard run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 9:2961% → 60%
Q3 9:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
38.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 45 yds for a 1ST down , Sean Fresch returns for 5 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Ja'Marian Peterson) to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Chris Smith for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
38.3%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Michael Jefferson, broken up by George NyakwolSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
40.1%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr., broken up by Jordan DunbarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 5:2343% → 46%
Q3 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
42.5%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner, broken up by Marcus WiserSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
45.6%
Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
43.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 7 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
45.7%
Ari Broussard run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
46.8%
Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
46.9%
TJ McMahon run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+2
46.0%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 28 yds · 5:2363% → 66%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
37.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
38.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Jacob Bernard, broken up by Gabe TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+16
39.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 16 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
35.1%
RICE Penalty, roughing passer (Josh Pearcy) to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
34.0%
Chris Smith run for 8 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
33.7%
pass incomplete to Chris SmithSimilar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
35.2%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the Rice 25Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-10
37.6%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (Johnny Lumpkin) to the Rice 35Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+52
40.4%
Preston Stafford 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
37.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
39.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Jacob Bernard, broken up by Gabe TaylorSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+16
40.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 16 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
35.3%
RICE Penalty, roughing passer (Josh Pearcy) to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
34.0%
Chris Smith run for 8 yds to the Rice 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD
17 plays · 65 yds · 3:3542% → 50%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
41.9%
TJ McMahon sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+12
40.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 12 yds to the Rice 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-10
44.3%
RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (Clay Servin) to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+39
39.2%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 39 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
48.5%
RICE Penalty, false start (Luke McCaffrey) to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+1
47.5%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 33
-5
45.2%
RICE Penalty, personal foul (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+15
43.8%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 15 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
46.3%
Ari Broussard run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
48.5%
Ari Broussard run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.5%
Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
48.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jourdan Quibodeaux) to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.9%
Luke McCaffrey 6 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (TJ McMahon Pass to Bradley Rozner for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
49.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, off-side (Ja-Quane Nelson) to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 9:1737% → 30%
Q4 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
62.8%
Chris Smith 22 Yd Run (Preston Stafford Kick)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
80.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 16 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
79.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 20 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.7%
pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
73.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Pearse Migl for 13 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
70.1%
pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 2:5996% → 98%
Q4 2:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.2%
Ari Broussard 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.0%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+32
97.6%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 32 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
98.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jack Bradley for 10 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.0%
Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
97.9%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 8 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-1
97.9%
Ari Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+5
97.7%
LOUISIANA Penalty, off-side (Eric Garror) to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
97.9%
Dean Connors run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.9%
Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.9%
Ari Broussard run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.9%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:105% → 4%
Q4 2:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
95.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr., broken up by Sean FreschSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Chris Smith, broken up by Myron MorrisonSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Chris Smith for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0597% → 98%
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
97.2%
Uriah West run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+4
97.1%
Uriah West run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+5
97.7%
Ari Broussard run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
98.0%
Uriah West run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:59
Ari Broussard 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+26.1
TD · Q4 9:17
Chris Smith 22 Yd Run (Preston Stafford Kick)
+12.9
TD · Q3 10:20
Bradley Rozner 12 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com