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UNT

North Texas 27 at UNLV 58

UNLV
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:42 · Cameron Oliver 20 Yd Interception Return (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:18: A. Robbins run for 33 yds for a TD, (D. Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +3.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:48: A. Aune pass,to O. Adaway III for 7 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +2.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:55: D. Brumfield run for 29 yds for a TD, (D. Gutierrez KICK) — UNT win probability +2.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:08: Doug Brumfield run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNT win probability +3.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:01: Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNT win probability +3.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 6UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:52UNLV 4th & 5 at UNT 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:27UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:16UNLV 4th & 22 at UNLV 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:49UNT 4th & 6 at UNLV 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:43UNLV 4th & 1 at UNT 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−9.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:27UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.7%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:43UNT 4th & 4 at UNLV 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:23UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UNT 4th & 2 at UNLV 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−10.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:43UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:25UNT 4th & 1 at UNLV 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−2.9
    79% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:24UNT 4th & 1 at UNLV 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−4.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−14.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:15UNLV 4th & 7 at UNT 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−4.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:36UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:21UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1657% → 59%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
57.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
50
0
57.2%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
50
+6
57.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+1
57.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 1 yd to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 14:52
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+22
57.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 22 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
59.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5456% → 55%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
56.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
56.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
55.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 20 , Roderic Burns returns for 3 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1045% → 45%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
55.3%
Austin Aune sacked by Jerrae Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+4
55.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
55.6%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jacob DaulongSimilar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
55.2%
B. Rodriguez punt blocked by B. Harris, punt out-of-bounds for a SAFETY,blocked by BJ Harris for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 2:4755% → 53%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
55.3%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Roderick Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 37Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 16
OWN 37
-10
54.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brumfield,Doug rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNLV42 (Nixon III,Larry) PENALTY UNLV Holding (McDaniel,Daviyon) 10 yards from UNLV37 to UNLV27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 26
OWN 27
-10
54.7%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 31
OWN 22
+5
54.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 5 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 26
OWN 27
+4
54.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
53.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:2746% → 49%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
53.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
53.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+15
53.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 15 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
53.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 15 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
52.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 10 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
52.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 13 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
52.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
52.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
52.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the UNLV 19Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
52.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
50.1%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Var'Keyes GummsSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+31
50.9%
Ethan Mooney 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 8:0652% → 49%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
52.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
52.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 6 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
52.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
52.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
52.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
52.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
52.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
52.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+5
52.5%
Doug Brumfield run for 5 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
52.8%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+6
53.4%
Doug Brumfield run for 6 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
53.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+5
53.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
52.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 6 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+1
52.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
51.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
49.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1652% → 54%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
47.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
47.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
46.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
50.2%
A. Robbins run for 33 yds for a TD, (D. Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3054% → 62%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+32
45.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 32 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Isaiah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNLV36 (Thompkins,Fred; Ehimare,Eliel) PENALTY UNT Illegal Formation (Duncan,Jett) 5 yards from UNLV37 to UNLV42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+6
44.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+2
44.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
44.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
43.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for no gain to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
43.8%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Nwaiwu,Febechi) 5 yards from UNLV26 to UNLV31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
44.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+11
45.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+13
42.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 13 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.4%
A. Aune pass,to O. Adaway III for 7 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2545% → 44%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
45.4%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+13
45.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 13 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
45.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
45.2%
Doug Brumfield run for 5 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
43.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11FG
11 plays · 82 yds · 1:2356% → 61%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
44.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 15 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
42.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+26
43.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 26 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
39.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
38.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+36
39.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 36 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
39.3%
Ethan Mooney 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1759% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
41.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
40.6%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
41.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:4844% → 45%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
43.6%
Doug Brumfield run for 12 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
45.9%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+19
45.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 19 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
47.5%
Courtney Reese run for 1 yd to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
47.4%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+29
44.7%
D. Brumfield run for 29 yds for a TD, (D. Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4661% → 63%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
39.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 17 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
37.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+54
36.6%
A. Aune pass,to V. Gumms for 54 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0141% → 43%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+29
42.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 29 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
44.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 12 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
46.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+11
46.2%
Doug Brumfield run for 11 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
46.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
46.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
43.0%
Doug Brumfield run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 2:4364% → 67%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
34.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 16 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
33.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
33.0%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
33.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 11 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
32.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
32.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
33.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
33.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 6:4339% → 41%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.5%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Aidan RobbinsSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-10
38.5%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+5
38.2%
Doug Brumfield run for 5 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+14
36.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 14 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
39.3%
Aidan Robbins run for 14 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
41.9%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Ballungay,Kaleo) 5 yards from UNLV46 to UNLV41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+7
39.5%
Courtney Reese run for 7 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
42.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 6
50
+17
38.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
41.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
41.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
39.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 3 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
41.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 6 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
41.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 5 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
41.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 10 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.5%
A. Robbins run for 1 yd for a TD, (D. Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:1873% → 77%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+41
28.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 41 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
23.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 15 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
23.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
23.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
23.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
23.3%
Austin Aune run for 1 yd to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
24.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 3:2329% → 34%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
28.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 8 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+2
28.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+30
27.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 30 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+59
30.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 59 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
37.6%
PENALTY UNLV Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNT04 to UNT09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.6%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for no gain to the NoTex 9Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
33.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5880% → 83%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
20.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+9
20.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
18.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
16.6%
Austin Aune pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 45 yds · 4:4823% → 17%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
23.3%
Courtney Reese run for 9 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
24.5%
Courtney Reese run for 6 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
24.5%
Courtney Reese run for 6 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+21
26.2%
Courtney Reese run for 6 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mazin Richards) to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
29.6%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
29.3%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
29.1%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for no gain to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
16.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22INT TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3390% → 90%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
10.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-20
10.0%
Cameron Oliver 20 Yd Interception Return (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+90
TD · Q2 7:18
A. Robbins run for 33 yds for a TD, (D. Gutierrez KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q4 7:01
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com