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TNST

Tennessee State 6 at Middle Tennessee 49

MTSU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadTNST aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreTNST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:21 · Kaleb Mosley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+34.9Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.6Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:11: Frank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:14: Jaylin Lane 15 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:15: Jalen Montgomery 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TNST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:13: Darius Bracy 11 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:44: Chase Cunningham 7 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TNST made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
  1. Q1 11:17TNST 4th & 10 at MTSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02TNST 4th & 13 at TNST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21TNST 4th & 13 at TNST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03TNST 4th & 4 at TNST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:15TNST 4th & 4 at TNST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:15TNST 4th & 2 at TNST 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:51MTSU 4th & 4 at TNST 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:04TNST 4th & 3 at MTSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:20TNST 4th & 3 at MTSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:52TNST 4th & 8 at TNST 24, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:02TNST 4th & 8 at TNST 24, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:02MTSU 4th & 20 at MTSU 37, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:41MTSU 4th & 20 at MTSU 37, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:19MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 27, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:19TNST 4th & 12 at TNST 24, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:47TNST 4th & 12 at TNST 24, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 48, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:05MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 48, up 43
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:05TNST 4th & 9 at TNST 31, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:37TNST 4th & 9 at TNST 31, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:37MTSU 4th & 2 at TNST 49, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TNST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 4:11MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:14MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:15MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:13MTSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:44MTSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00MTSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:00MTSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:45TNST Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TNSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3511% → 12%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
89.1%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to JJ Holloman for 11 yds to the TenSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
89.0%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to JJ Holloman for 6 yds to the TenSt 36Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
89.0%
Devon Starling run for no gain to the TenSt 36Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
89.0%
Devon Starling run for 4 yds to the TenSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
89.0%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Devon Starling for 12 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.0%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
89.0%
Devon Starling run for a loss of 4 yards to the TenSt 48Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+4
89.1%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to JJ Holloman for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
88.0%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 18 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1588% → 88%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
88.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
88.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+6
88.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the TenSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.2%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the TenSt 40Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+7
88.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 7 yds to the TenSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
87.8%
Chase Cunningham pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 9:0213% → 16%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 8
OWN 13
-2
87.3%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Zaire Thornton for a loss of 2 yards to the TenSt 11Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+15
87.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TenSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
87.3%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Zack Dobson for 3 yds to the TenSt 32Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
87.3%
Jalen Rouse run for no gain to the TenSt 32Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
87.4%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
87.5%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
87.3%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Zaire Thornton for a loss of 2 yards to the TenSt 11Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
86.7%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
83.8%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Zaire Thornton for a loss of 2 yards to the TenSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1087% → 88%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
86.6%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+15
86.8%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jashon Watkins-Perkins) to the TenSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
86.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 3 yds to the TenSt 37Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+36
86.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 36 yds to the TenSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the TenSt 1Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Frank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4812% → 12%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
87.6%
Jalen Rouse run for 6 yds to the TenSt 26Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
87.4%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
87.7%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
87.9%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 28 yds, downed at the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
87.8%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 28 yds, downed at the MTnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:0188% → 90%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
88.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 18 yds to the TenSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
88.1%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass up the middle incomplete intended for METCALF, Elijah broken up by WATKINS, Jashon at the TSU4. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on WATKINS, Jashon enforced 15 yards to the TSU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
88.1%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the TenSt 15Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
90.2%
Jaylin Lane 15 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 7PUNT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4911% → 7%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
89.1%
Devon Starling run for 3 yds to the TenSt 35Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
89.1%
Devon Starling run for 3 yds to the TenSt 38Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+2
89.1%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Chevy Brenson for 2 yds to the TenSt 40Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+19
92.8%
Jalen Montgomery 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 8INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:097% → 7%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
92.8%
Devon Starling run for a loss of 4 yards to the TenSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+15
93.0%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to JJ Holloman for 15 yds to the TenSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.8%
Devon Starling run for no gain to the TenSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+14
92.8%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Zack Dobson for 14 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
92.6%
Devon Starling run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
92.6%
Devon Starling run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.0%
Draylen Ellis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:3894% → 97%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
93.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
93.8%
Darius Bracy run for 8 yds to the TenSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
93.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 1 yd to the TenSt 46Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-1
93.8%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Chris Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 47Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+6
93.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the TenSt 41Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+21
93.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 21 yds to the TenSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
93.8%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the TenSt 19Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
93.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chase Cunningham) to the TenSt 24Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+18
93.7%
Chase Cunningham run for 18 yds to the TenSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
93.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Snap on KELLY, Wilson enforced (-5 Yards) to the TenSt 11Similar
Q2 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
93.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
97.1%
Darius Bracy 11 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:443% → 2%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
97.1%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Devon Starling for 9 yds to the TenSt 38Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+14
96.8%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to JJ Holloman for 14 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.9%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
96.9%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Da'Shon Davis for 8 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
96.7%
Draylen Ellis run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.9%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
96.9%
Draylen Ellis run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+6
96.9%
Chayil Garnett pass complete to Zack Dobson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
96.7%
Chayil Garnett pass complete to JJ Holloman for no gain to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
97.8%
Chayil Garnett pass complete to JJ Holloman for no gain to the MTnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:3698% → 99%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
97.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 16 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
97.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 6 yds to the TenSt 47Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
97.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+4
97.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 4 yds to the TenSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.9%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the TenSt 43Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-6
97.9%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Cameron Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the TenSt 49Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+5
97.8%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right complete for 3 yards to GATHINGS, Izaiah caught at the MTS49 and advanced to the TSU46 (POPE, K'Vaughan). PENALTY TSU Offsides on NASH, Davion enforced 5 yards from the TSU49 to the TSU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+24
97.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 24 yds to the TenSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
97.9%
A'Varius Sparrow run for 5 yds to the TenSt 15Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
97.9%
Chase Cunningham run for 4 yds to the TenSt 11Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
97.7%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the TenSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Chase Cunningham 7 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 12INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Chayil Garnett run for no gain to the TenSt 46Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Chayil Garnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.0%
Chayil Garnett pass complete to Chevy Brenson for 11 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Chayil Garnett pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.0%
Chayil Garnett pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds to the TenSt 11Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+9
99.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 9 yds to the TenSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.0%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 3Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.9%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the TenSt 2Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.9%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the TenSt 2Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Frank Peasant 2 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Taharin Sudderth) to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.2%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+85
99.3%
Frank Peasant 85 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:501% → 0%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.5%
Jalen Rouse run for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 21Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+2
99.5%
Chayil Garnett run for 2 yds to the TenSt 23Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+1
99.5%
Chayil Garnett pass complete to Zaire Thornton for 1 yd to the TenSt 24Similar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+10
99.5%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 51 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+10
99.6%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 51 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.5%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
99.5%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.5%
Darius Bracy run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 7
50
-2
99.5%
Preston Rice run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-5
99.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-1
99.5%
Preston Rice run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 15
OWN 42
-5
99.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Raquon Hartley) to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 20
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 28 yds, downed at the TenSt 35Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 20
OWN 37
0
99.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 28 yds, downed at the TenSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.7%
Jalen Rouse run for 3 yds to the TenSt 38Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+18
99.7%
Jalen Rouse run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.7%
Chayil Garnett run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+2
99.7%
Chayil Garnett run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.8%
Jalen Rouse 34 Yd pass from Chayil Garnett (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Terry Wilkins run for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 yds, downed at the TenSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
James Thorpe run for 1 yd to the TenSt 27Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-3
99.9%
James Thorpe run for a loss of 3 yards to the TenSt 24Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Chayil Garnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 56 yds, downed at the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 56 yds, downed at the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Preston Rice run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Preston Rice run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
99.8%
Preston Rice run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+15
99.8%
TENNESSEE ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tadarrius Patterson) to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Jalen Montgomery run for no gain to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Jalen Montgomery run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Chayil Garnett pass complete to Zaire Thornton for 1 yd to the TenSt 21Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Jalen Rouse run for 2 yds to the TenSt 23Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
100.0%
Chayil Garnett run for 7 yds to the TenSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
100.0%
Chayil Garnett run for 1 yd to the TenSt 31Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Edwin Rhodes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Chayil Garnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Kaleb Mosley punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22END OF GAME
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
99.9%
Stone Frost pass complete to Bryce Bailey for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+11
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-3
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Stone Frost run for 8 yds to the TenSt 49Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Stone Frost run for 5 yds to the TenSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
99.9%
Stone Frost run for 17 yds to the TenSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Jalen Montgomery run for 8 yds to the TenSt 19Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Stone Frost run for 3 yds to the TenSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:15
Jalen Montgomery 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick)
+3.7
TD · Q2 9:13
Darius Bracy 11 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)
+3.3
TD · Q1 2:14
Jaylin Lane 15 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com