2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:46 · Jacob Barnes 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 14:40: Will Shipley run for 32 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:25: Phil Mafah run for 4 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:37: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 32 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:30: Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:21: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 11:44CLEM 4th & 3 at LT 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.0%45% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%−0.192% to makePunt96.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:51LT 4th & 6 at LT 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q1 1:07CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 10, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%average punt
- Q2 14:25LT 4th & 10 at CLEM 39, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.4%30% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%−<0.136% to makePunt4.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:46LT 4th & 10 at CLEM 18, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call4.6%79% to makePunt3.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 9:36CLEM 4th & 8 at LT 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call94.5%77% to makePunt93.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 3:18LT 4th & 10 at CLEM 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.324% to convertField goalTheir call5.9%88% to makePunt4.5%−1.5average punt
- Q2 2:29CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 29, up 7Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.6%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:16LT 4th & 3 at LT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 0:20CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.2%average punt
- Q3 9:04CLEM 4th & 1 at LT 42, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.6%70% to convertField goal94.3%−1.330% to makePunt94.6%−1.0average punt
- Q3 3:46LT 4th & 2 at LT 33, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%average punt
- Q3 2:36LT 4th & 6 at LT 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:28CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 40, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 11:05CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 22, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q4 3:29LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 6:24CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:40CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:25CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:37CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:52LT Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:30LT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two3.3%45% to convert
- Q4 6:21CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
- Q4 4:53CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1FG10 plays · 70 yds · 3:0098% → 98%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 15 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 9 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
98.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 2 yds to the LaTch 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:372% → 2%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
97.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+3
97.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+9
97.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
97.7%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Austin McCready punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD6 plays · 79 yds · 2:1898% → 98%
LTDrive 4INT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:513% → 3%
CLEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 3:0897% → 97%
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+2
97.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 2 yds to the Clem 9Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
97.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 2 yds to the Clem 21Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-9
96.8%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Jaiden Cole for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 10Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 19
OWN 10
+13
96.7%
Aidan Swanson punt for 42 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 13 yds to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6MISSED FG7 plays · 0 yds · 1:393% → 3%
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
96.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 5 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-10
96.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 44Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+56
96.6%
Buck Buchanan 56 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Payton Page Barrett Carter return for 13 yds to the LaTch 48 Barrett Carter fumbled, recovered by LaTch Buck BuchananSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7FG6 plays · 34 yds · 1:314% → 4%
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+31
96.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 31 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FG10 plays · 56 yds · 2:5796% → 96%
LTDrive 9FG15 plays · 74 yds · 6:064% → 5%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
96.0%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+38
95.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 38 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
95.5%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the Clem 43 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
95.1%
Parker McNeil sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+19
95.3%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 19 yds to the Clem 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
94.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Griffin Hebert for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3495% → 94%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
94.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 6 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+2
94.3%
Aidan Swanson punt for 45 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 2 yds to the LaTch 31 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the LaTch 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:085% → 5%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
94.8%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 8 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-1
94.5%
Parker McNeil run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 25 Parker McNeil fumbled, recovered by LaTch Parker McNeilSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Austin McCready punt for 50 yds , Will Taylor returns for no gain to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:4994% → 94%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 8 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
94.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 4 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+5
93.9%
Aidan Swanson punt for 42 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 5 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14INT6 plays · -10 yds · 0:137% → 6%
Q3 14:47
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Parker McNeil pass intercepted Jeremiah Trotter Jr. return for no gain to the LaTch 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD1 play · 32 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16INT5 plays · 55 yds · 2:204% → 5%
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
96.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 28 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
95.6%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 26 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-23
95.1%
Parker McNeil pass intercepted Malcolm Greene return for 13 yds to the Clem 20 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD14 plays · 90 yds · 6:1796% → 99%
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
96.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Phil Mafah for 1 yd to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+11
96.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Adam Randall for 11 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+14
96.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 14 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.7%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD1 play · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 32 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Austin McCready punt for 50 yds , Antonio Williams returns for no gain to the Clem 21 Antonio Williams fumbled, recovered by Clem Antonio WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 14 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Drew Swinney for 5 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Aidan Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD10 plays · 79 yds · 3:300% → 1%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.9%
McNeil, Parker pass incomplete to Lewis, Julien, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the LATECH36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH.Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 1 yd to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+46
99.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 46 yds to the Clem 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
99.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 1 yd to the Clem 16Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tahj Magee for 8 yds to the Clem 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:37100% → 99%
Q4 11:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+21
99.4%
Aidan Swanson punt for 43 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 21 yds to the Clem 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD6 plays · 44 yds · 1:251% → 5%
CLEMDrive 25TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:5198% → 100%
Q4 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
99.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26FUMBLE5 plays · -13 yds · 0:230% → 0%
CLEMDrive 27TD3 plays · 12 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
LTDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:30
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-4.1
TD · Q3 14:40
Will Shipley run for 32 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q3 5:25
Phil Mafah run for 4 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+2.4