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UCF

UCF 40 at Florida Atlantic 14

FAU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:42 · Riley Thompson punt for 40 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 7 yds to the UCF 25 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Brandon Adams) to the UCF 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense−22.5Score differential−10.8Pregame prior−6.2Garbage-time factor−7.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 7:00: Ryker Casey kickoff for 65 yds — FAU win probability +7.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:12: J. Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds for a TD, (C. Boomer KICK), (C. Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +5.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:03: John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer PAT MISSED) — UCF win probability +15.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:25: I. Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Boomer KICK), (C. Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +10.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:01: RJ Harvey 3 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick) — UCF win probability +5.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:45FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:00UCF 4th & 7 at FAU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 5 at FAU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−0.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:10UCF 4th & 5 at FAU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:24FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:00FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 28, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:29UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:34FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:25FAU 4th & 2 at UCF 2, down 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:42FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 18, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:15UCF 4th & 5 at FAU 12, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:45FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:41FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 36, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:00FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:03UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:25UCF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:00UCF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1TD
17 plays · 87 yds · 13:0031% → 43%
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
30.7%
Z. Mobley run for 15 yds for a TD, (M. Suarez KICK), (M. Suarez KICK), (M. Suarez KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+34
41.2%
Larry McCammon run for 34 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
42.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 19 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
42.8%
pass incomplete to Jahmal EdrineSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
42.7%
Larry McCammon run for 15 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
42.7%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FUMBLE
10 plays · 59 yds · 9:3668% → 61%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
32.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 14 Johnny Richardson fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Michal Antoine Jr.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
40.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 6 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
40.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
40.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
40.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 7 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+9
39.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 9 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
39.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
40.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+15
40.2%
pass incomplete to Ryan O'Keefe FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Armani-Eli Adams) to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
39.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 14 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 7:4534% → 41%
Q1 7:45
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+8
34.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 44 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
41.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+6
41.0%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
40.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Jahmal Edrine UCF Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
40.6%
pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 5:1265% → 62%
Q1 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.3%
J. Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds for a TD, (C. Boomer KICK), (C. Boomer KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
39.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
39.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
39.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
39.2%
pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
39.5%
pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+13
40.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
38.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 16 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 0:0843% → 43%
Q1 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.6%
N. Perry pass,to L. Wester for 4 yds for a TD, (M. Suarez KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
41.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
41.1%
Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+28
40.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 28 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
42.4%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+14
42.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 14 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
42.7%
pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
42.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 17 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
42.8%
Zuberi Mobley run for 5 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
42.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+8
42.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 8 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
42.7%
for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (K.D. McDaniel) to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:5059% → 61%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.8%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
41.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
40.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 18 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.5%
pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
39.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 5 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
39.5%
pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+17
40.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 17 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
38.4%
Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
38.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 5 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
39.2%
pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
38.8%
Colton Boomer 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 10:2440% → 49%
Q2 10:24
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
39.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 57 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.7%
LaJohntay Wester run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
49.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
50.3%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
48.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete, broken up by Tre'mon Morris-BrashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
6 plays · 96 yds · 8:0367% → 68%
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
32.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer PAT MISSED)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
37.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+3
37.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+64
38.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 64 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
32.4%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 17 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
32.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 59 yds · 5:3342% → 44%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
41.6%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 17 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by UCF Branden JenningsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.6%
pass incomplete to Jahmal EdrineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
38.4%
Larry McCammon run for 24 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
41.7%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
50
+8
41.9%
Zuberi Mobley run for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+11
41.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 11 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
43.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 15 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 78 yds · 0:0063% → 68%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
36.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+21
37.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Jaleel McRae) to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+50
34.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 50 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
32.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0037% → 37%
Q2 2:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Riley Thompson punt for 56 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
38.0%
pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton UCF Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Corey Thornton) to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.5%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
38.4%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+9
36.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:2961% → 62%
Q2 0:29
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+3
39.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
36.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
36.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+4
37.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
36.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Demari Henderson, broken up by Armani-Eli AdamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
36.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
37.6%
pass incomplete to Johnny RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:2141% → 39%
Q2 0:21
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
40.6%
pass incomplete to Jahmal EdrineSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+10
39.2%
Zuberi Mobley run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
41.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 11 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.3%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
38.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 15:0063% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
36.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
36.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+14
36.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 14 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
34.6%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
34.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
34.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
34.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+14
33.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 14 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
33.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+17
33.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 17 yds to the FlAtl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.2%
I. Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Boomer KICK), (C. Boomer KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
20.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
20.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+14
20.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 14 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
18.8%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 8:3424% → 13%
Q3 8:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
24.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 47 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.8%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
12.9%
pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
12.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton, broken up by Corey ThorntonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 7:4887% → 92%
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
13.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
8.4%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 6:2517% → 15%
Q3 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
17.3%
Morgan Suarez 19 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
15.8%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
15.8%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
15.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Tony Johnson, broken up by Justin HodgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 4:0190% → 93%
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.0%
RJ Harvey 3 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
8.5%
pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+36
8.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 36 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
7.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+28
7.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 28 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
7.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+14
7.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4213% → 12%
Q3 1:42
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+7
12.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 40 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 7 yds to the UCF 25 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Brandon Adams) to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
12.5%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Chaz Neal) to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
12.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 3 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
12.1%
N'Kosi Perry sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:4592% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
7.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
7.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
8.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
7.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 34 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
7.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-1
7.3%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
7.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny RichardsonSimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
3.8%
Colton Boomer 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 11:455% → 2%
Q4 11:45
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
4.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 40 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 3 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 8 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
1.6%
pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
1.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 7:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
0.4%
Javon Baker 20 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+14
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Morven Joseph) to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
0.2%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+9
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+16
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 16 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
0.2%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 5:410% → 0%
Q4 5:41
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 54 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
0.1%
pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
0.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 6 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Jahmal Edrine, broken up by Corey ThorntonSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
pass incomplete to Larry McCammonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24Uncategorized
11 plays · 85 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+14
0.2%
RJ Harvey run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
0.2%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, off-side (Jaden Wheeler) to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.2%
Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+30
0.2%
RJ Harvey run for 30 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.2%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
0.2%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+9
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
0.2%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+3
0.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
0.2%
pass incomplete to Jordan Johnson FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Romain Mungin) to the FlAtl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:03
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer PAT MISSED)
-15.7
TD · Q3 9:25
I. Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Boomer KICK), (C. Boomer KICK)
-10.5
TD · Q4 7:00
Ryker Casey kickoff for 65 yds
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com