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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsPregame priorTime remainingTwo-minute warningHome team on offense
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:49: T. Tyler run for 16 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK), (Q. Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q3 2:02: F. Harris pass,to Z. Franklin for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +7.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 9:49: B. Brady run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Sackett KICK), (J. Sackett KICK), (J. Sackett KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 7:11: B. Brady run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Sackett KICK), (J. Sackett KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 1:03: C. Ballard pass,to T. Robinson for 42 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +14.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:57UTSA 4th & 1 at ARMY 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.2%71% to convertField goal53.1%−0.160% to makePunt52.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:29ARMY 4th & 2 at UTSA 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.2%57% to convertField goal47.8%−0.434% to makePunt47.9%−0.3average punt
- Q1 5:35UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snapGo for it51.3%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.5%average punt
- Q1 0:07UTSA 4th & 30 at ARMY 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snapGo for it43.4%−1.37% to convertField goalTheir call44.7%56% to makePunt44.0%−0.8average punt
- Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt49.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 8:03UTSA 4th & 17 at ARMY 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it49.7%−1.315% to convertField goal50.0%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call50.9%average punt
- Q4 14:44ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snapGo for it48.8%−5.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.6%average punt
- Q4 8:23ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snapGo for it48.3%−6.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q4 0:00ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 33, tiedNumbers favored punt by 4.5 ptsWent for it · 55.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.4%−4.557% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt60.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:24ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.6%97% to makeGo for two51.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTSADrive 1DOWNS24 plays · 60 yds · 2:2166% → 68%
Q1 13:59
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+12
34.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 12 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
34.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 12 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
33.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Frank Harris) to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
33.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
33.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Von Bradley, broken up by Marquel BroughtonSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-5
33.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Frank Harris) to the Army 42Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+14
33.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 14 yds to the Army 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 7:2930% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 5:3571% → 76%
ARMYDrive 4TD1 play · 77 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
29.7%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Ay'Jaun Marshall for 77 yds for a TD, (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD17 plays · 75 yds · 0:0770% → 76%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
28.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
27.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
27.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
27.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 10 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
27.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 10 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
27.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 10 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
28.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Gavin Sharp UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Frank Harris) to the Army 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FUMBLE9 plays · 26 yds · 4:3925% → 24%
UTSADrive 7Uncategorized5 plays · 25 yds · 8:0377% → 88%
Q2 8:03
4TH & 17
OPP 45
+44
22.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for no gain to the Army 1 Tyrell Robinson fumbled, recovered by TexSA Caleb Cantrell , return for no gain to the Army 1Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
11.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 18 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
11.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4924% → 23%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
23.8%
T. Tyler run for 16 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK), (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+5
22.2%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 5 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
22.0%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, substitution infraction (Frank Harris) to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+13
19.5%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 13 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+5
21.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, off-side (Dadrian Taylor) to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD13 plays · 84 yds · 2:0285% → 86%
Q3 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
15.3%
F. Harris pass,to Z. Franklin for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Sackett KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
17.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 6 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
17.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
16.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
15.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
14.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
14.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 4 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
14.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
14.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 27 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1619% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD11 plays · 74 yds · 9:4977% → 87%
Q4 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.8%
B. Brady run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Sackett KICK), (J. Sackett KICK), (J. Sackett KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+22
16.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 22 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
13.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian Clark, broken up by Jabari MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 8:2327% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13TD4 plays · 54 yds · 7:1173% → 88%
Q4 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.1%
B. Brady run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Sackett KICK), (J. Sackett KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
50
+16
13.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 16 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
12.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 33 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD12 plays · 75 yds · 1:0327% → 21%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
26.6%
C. Ballard pass,to T. Robinson for 42 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
23.0%
Tyrell Robinson pass complete to Tyhier Tyler for 6 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+7
22.4%
Cade Ballard pass complete to Cole Caterbone for 7 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+15
20.5%
Cade Ballard pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Nicktroy Fortune) to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15MISSED FG9 plays · 53 yds · 0:2287% → 85%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
13.5%
ARMY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jackson Powell) to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
16.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
14.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
15.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian Clark, broken up by Jabari MooreSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+8
14.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.9
TD · Q4 1:03
C. Ballard pass,to T. Robinson for 42 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK)
+14.1
TD · Q3 6:49
T. Tyler run for 16 yds for a TD, (Q. Maretzki KICK), (Q. Maretzki KICK)
+11.4